Topic: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Good morning everyone has someone got any good vibes for some thunder action in the northern rivers today?

currently 27.9C here and 65% hum

Antonio.

[Michael Thomas]

I think there is a chance of some nice storms today over the norther rivers. The Brisbane sounding this morning looks pretty good besides a horrible inversion around 700 mbar. The temp around 600 mbar is set to cool during the day which should help alot. SE change is moving up the coast in the afternoon much may provide a focus for storm development. Shear is a bit on the weak side but should be enough for storm organisation if things come together. I would really like to see some on the inland stations (Grafton, Casino) hitting say 28/18 in the afternoon for a good shot at severe storms. That will give say 1500-1800 j/kg of sbCAPE. Any more is a bonus. The dew point at Grafton has just drop a few degrees in the last hour which might suggest that the coastal moisture is a bit shallow. Casino is holding strong though. A couple of weak echoes showing up now. Will be interesting to see what this afternoon holds.

[Karina Roberts (slavegirl)]

development seems to be trying to take of whichever way i look out at beaudesert at the moment it looks like we may see a storm this afternoon will make sue to get pics if one does eventuate here

[Shaun Galman]

Hi guys!

I was lucky enough to be in Albury yesterday (came back to lightning Ridge today) as an amazing storm cell came down through Rutherglen past Albury and straight over Wodonga. I hadn't seen such a nice, severe looking storm in ages. It wasn't long-lived but both the structure and greenish colouring were unreal around 6pm as it passed Albury!

I was shopping at Bunnings at the time so unfortunately I didn't have my camera- just an awesome view 

[Colin Maitland]

STW has been issued for the Northern Rivers and Northern Tablelands.

Hopefully MB,Jason and others in the area may get some evening lightning shots.


For people in parts of the
Northern Rivers and
Northern Tablelands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 8:45 pm Thursday, 7 October 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Casino, Kyogle, Coraki, Tabulam and Whiporie.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

There is a huge cell situated northeast from Kyogle at the moment it looks to hit se QLD as it is moving NE.

Antonio.

[James]

Headed west of Casino tonight to attempt some lightning photos. The storm was certainly very sus from a visual perspective for a good half hour or so. However in the end it got destroyed by outflow which really surged ahead and killed it. Those storms forming over Murwillumbah and Kyogle are forming on the edge of the outflow from the Casino stuff. The change is only just hitting here now in Lismore. Interesting you can see the two southerly surges on Brisbane doppler.

Thankfully one nice shot from the Casino storm. A good start to the season.

   

[Rodney Wallbridge]

Hi all, its time to kick off my storm seasion tonight. I ventured into Casino for a few pics and met up with Jason....in the cemetary. Spooky stuff as Jase killed off the storm I sent him home to the sin bin Nice piccy there James!

[Colin Maitland]

Love the pics.

The storms from the slow moving trough from the west finally made its way into Brisbane early this morning around 1.00 am.

Lightning was more IC sheet lightning with some pretty good cracks of thunder to be heard and rattling the house. The main damage was that caused by the storm was from excessive amounts of rain and thus flash flooding.

Some of the totals from around the suburbs of Brisbane due to the storm were.

East Brisbane AL *      60mm
Bulimba AL *          84mm
Carindale          55 mm
Camp Hill AL          71mm
Toombul(Nudgee Rd) AL           77mm
Geebung AL         69mm
Deagon            75mm
Redcliffe         71mm
Mt  Mee                 76mm

The 6.00am news on the radio suggested there is a lot of chaos around areas of Brisbane, so as the morning progresses more reports should become available.

Col

[Michael Bath]

Great captures of the lightning James and Rodney. The storm was certainly interesting on radar while it was S to SE of Mallanganee.

128km Radar Loop for Grafton, 05:00 07/10/2010 to 12:00 07/10/2010 UTC



Bit surprised the Bris BoM did not issue a flash flood warning for the slow moving storms early this morning - some quite high totals there.

[Michael Bath]

The attached shots were taken by my father from Grafton yesterday 7th Oct between 3.20 and 3.30pm EDT.  Radar showed the cell over the Wooli area.

[Colin Maitland]

Nice photos from your father there Michael. I can see that there must be  Canon versus Nikon camera debates when the family gets together. 

The big question being asked today is why there was no STW in place for this event, especially for flash flooding. I suppose it will be something that BOM will have to investigate internally. I checked EWN just in case I had missed one but there was no warning issued. The Brisbane City council has subscribed to the EWN and now my warnings are not as pin point accurate as before. We just receive a blanket warning for the area.

It is specially interesting to observe the 512 km Brisbane radar archive for this event.
You will be able to observe the slow moving trough visible around the Northern area of NSW, from early morning as it crept ever so slow towards the coast and gained momentum as it approached Tenterfield, Casino,Lismore etc, and then worked its way up the coast.

http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR661-brisbane/2010-10-07-00/2010-10-08-00

Similar to the 2006 season at this stage with very late/early morning storms.

Col

[Michael Bath]

Hi Col - my father just mainly uses the compacts these days and the Canon's are quite nice!:)



I took a few photos from home yesterday. This first one was over the Gold Coast




The first "storm" in the region (no thunder or lightning observed) tracked from just west of me then NNE to the Nightcap Ranges. This photo at 2.45pm EDT





A Border Ranges cell at 5pm EDT that didn't last long:




Bit of lightning as the line reformed over Kyogle (9.30pm EDT) then went on into Brisbane early this morning.



All the photos taken yesterday can be found here



Regarding the warnings

The Bureau of Meteorology probably should have issued a STW for flash flooding, but with little rain prior to this event (it was all south of Brisbane earlier this week) and the time of the event, who would have received it/known?  Apart from weather nuts like us.

As to EWN, we can only issue what the BoM issue. Since the BCC got involved almost every thunderstorm event has been a mess of storms, no discreet supercells so warnings will be general covering large areas. It would have been the same result without BCC. Have a look at the radar archives from the days in question. On the 29th Sep alerts were done in various stages - not just one.

regards, Michael

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Heaps of rain still in SE QLD and also now NE NSW i think the hole thing is moving toward us we might get some high totals again.

Heavy rain which has been affecting Queensland is set to ease over the weekend and tend mainly coastal, as a high pressure ridge pushes an inland trough northeast.

A deep trough and a moist atmosphere over the country's northeast have caused the heavy rainfall and storms across the state.

In the 24 hours to 9am on Friday the 8th of October, Brisbane recorded 54mm of rain in the gauge, which is the wettest October day in 9 years and the highest daily total since March this year. But not only the capital city was soaked with rain.

Redcliffe (just to the northeast of Brisbane), recorded 77mm in the 24 hours to 9am, the highest recorded rainfall there in 6 years of records for October.

The rain and storms which crossed the Southeast today also hit the rain gauges in northeast NSW, but significantly less rainfall amounts were recorded.

The weekend outlook for the sunshine state does not look very sunny. An intense high lingering over the Tasman Sea will maintain the strong southeasterly winds across most of the QLD coast, resulting in scattered showers over the east and possible thunderstorms in the northwest.

- Weatherzone

Antonio.

[Colin Maitland]

The weather system that caused the storms on the SE QLD and NSW Coast on Thursday/ Friday is persisting, the current forecast is for rain periods to continue for the next couple of days.
An amazing amount of rain has fallen last night in many areas. The Brisbane Airport  has received 42.6 mm as at 6.55am EST, but it appears at this early stage, that most has fallen around the North Coast with 224 mm thus far recorded at Tewantin  with still over 2 hours to go before the 9.00am totals are complete.

This has prompted BoM to issue a severe weather warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Heavy rainfall and Flash Flooding
For people in the Sunshine Coast and Hinterland.   

Issued at 4:40 am on Saturday 9 October 2010

Synoptic Situation:
An upper trough combined with a strong SE change has caused heavy rain areas
over the Sunshine Coast and Hinterland during the night. Heaviest falls since 9
AM Friday are Lake Cooroibah 238mm, Tewantin 230mm, Noosa Heads 211mm, Baroon
Dam 157mm, Eudlo 151mm, Mapleton 162mm, Cooroy 147mm and Palmwoods 137mm.

Rain areas likely to continue in the area during the day, however heavy rain
areas causing flash flooding has now moved off the coast.