A very interesting week ahead! Models are still relativley all over the shop but we are getting a general agreement or overview of the situation. In all likelyhood it is going to be quite a large event, or several numbers of different systems as per EC is indicating. But either scenario, flooding becomes a real problem again across the state.
During Sunday, we should see winds tend more northeasterly, and this is when the moisture starts to be pumped down into Victoria from northern regions and Queensland.
By Monday DP's should have risen a little and there is some indication that there could be a few isolated afternoon showers or/and thunderstorms near the northeast ranges and in the southwest, filtering over from southeast South Australia where there is an upper disturbance. Winds will tend more north to northwest during Monday and they are looking to be quite fresh to strong and occassionaly gusty across the state as the pressure gradient tightens a little. Temperatures will be quite warm as well with mid 20's through the south and high 20's approaching the 30 degree mark across the north.
Depending on which scenario plays out, Tuesday could remain rather troughy as per EC, or a day with cloud increasing and rain areas developing from the west as per GFS and even ACCESS. If GFS plays out, there would be a relatively weak south to southwest change enter the southwest during the afternoon. However EC looks a lot more interesting with moisture comtinuing to plume into the state with northerly winds continuing and instability rising thanks to the trough in the region. This would ensure shower and thunderstorm activity to continue across most of the state.
Wednesday onwards is just way too confusing at the moment with many scenarios possibly playing out. EC continues troughy conditions with a weak front coming through the state later in the day, ensuring showers and thunderstorms to continue, whereas GFS has most of Victoria in a southeast flow and rain areas continuing.
So hard to say from Wednesday onwards ... will have to watch the satellite over coming days and model runs as well
