Tornadoes likely over eastern OK into southwest MO today and tonight!
Severe thunderstorms will erupt along a cold front advancing across the Southern Plains by late afternoon, as a massive upper-level trough begins to slowly rotate east out of the Rocky Mountains. CAPE values of 1000+ J/kg will reside in the warm sector along and east of the cold front from southwest MO through eastern OK, with impressive low-level shear as a 50+ knot LLJ develops over the same region. Given 250+ 0-1 km helicities over an uncapped warm sector, any discrete supercells that develop along and ahead of the cold front in the slight risk region will have the potential for producing tornadoes; some strong and long-track if sufficient instability can develop. I think the best chance for tornadoes is over northeast Oklahoma later today, where instability and low-level wind shear will be maximized, and surface winds should be more backed closer to the warm front. Given the strength of this storm system, and the deep tropical moisture in the warm sector, I would not be surprised if several tornadoes are reported overnight tonight across the Ozark Mountain region of MO and AR, especially as the low-level jet stream intensifies even further and storms are able to remain discrete. TornadoVideos.net will have several live streaming video teams out in the field today, so be sure to check out
TornadoVideos.net/live beginning late this afternoon!
http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1307-tornadoes-likely-over-eastern-ok-into-southwest-mo-today-and-tonight
