Topic: NSW Storms then NE NSW / SE QLD Flood Disaster : 5 - 14 January 2011

[Mathew Townsend]

Hey all, GFS and ACCESS models looking thick for the rain ahead for the region. However we better focus one day at a time. BoM saying possible hail with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the first time today for Northern Rivers.

Not sure if this good thing but i can see the windshear is improving.

Best chasing wishes
Matt

[Shaun Galman]

Hi guys,

Has been pretty stormy over the last few days. Been some small hail about in my area also (around 6mm).

We were out on storms from midnight until 2am this morning. There were 4-5 that we could see, sitting around the horizon from our West to North to East. Lightning was very active though a lot was hidden in the dense rain cores. I will post a shot or two today at some point. The mosquito's almost carried us off!  

Rain has been minimal as the storms have mostly skirted around the town area. We only picked up 10mm from the previous storms earlier in the week but wind gusts were very strong! It was enough to blow the guttering off my mums house and break a few branches of large trees here and there.

Been fairly showery this morning. See what develops a bit later on.

Kindest regards.

[Richary]

The Weatherzone forecast for Sydney next Tuesday is interesting, though it has changed from Possible Shower to Showers since this afternoon. What hasn't changed is Chance of Rain 90%, Rain Amount 40-80mm.

That seems like some pretty serious showers to me, especially given that 6 hours ago they were only possible.

Some rumbles here later this afternoon off in the distance, apparently Lithgow got hit with a downpour that collapsed a retaining wall rupturing gas and water mains, and there was also a landslip over the road in the mountains. Some of the cells up towards Coonamble looked nasty as well, and the NE looks like it is getting a fair soaking again.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

Just got back from Lithgow after waiting all afternoon wandering whether to chase the Putty Road or Lithgow. As soon as I arrived just above Lithgow, the storm was very lightning active but I could hardly see the storm given low level cloud was racing in. Well I was at the base level of the storm! I could make out a green tinge through the organised low cloud base. Here is the photograph of the storm as I approached:



I observed hail estimated at 1.5cm possibly 2cm. However, my initial estimate of photographed hail of 2.5cm further south of my vantage point was an underestimate. I think more like 3.0cm hail about 1 hour after the storm had passed (no





Flooding occurred in Lithgow with tree branches down and no doubt blackouts I would assume given the amount of powerful bolts around.






Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Mathew Townsend]

Lismore just peaked 4.05 metres this morning (below minor flood level). Ballina scored 147mm of rain so far and now expecting to worsen from today according to the low developing.

[Michael Bath]

Some very heavy rainfalls in the area south of Gympie yesterday and overnight - though quite localised.

The latest flood warning for the area:

Rainfall totals of up to 300mm have been recorded since 9am Friday causing major
flooding between Gympie and Tiaro. River levels at Maryborough will rise further
today with a peak expected during Sunday of around 9 metres, possibly higher.
Moderate to major flooding is occurring in Wide Bay Creek, Munna and Tinana
Creeks. Further rain is forecast.

 
Major flood levels are rising between Miva and Tiaro and along Wide Bay Creek at
Brooyar. Rises to 18 metres are expected at Tiaro overnight with further rises
possible.

River levels at Maryborough will rise further today with a peak expected during
Sunday of around 9 metres, possibly higher. For comparison, the 1999 peak flood
level was 8.75 metres.

Minor flooding is occurring in the upper Mary River between Moy Pocket and Dagun
Pocket.  A moderate flood peak of just over 14 metres is expected at Gympie
during Saturday. At 10am Saturday, the river level at Gympie was 13.94 metres
and rising. Moderate flood levels are occurring along Six Mile Creek at Cooran
and are expected to fall through today.

Meanwhile, a renewed flood watch has been issued for the NSW Northern Rivers. This area along with SE QLD is in the firing line for very significant falls Sunday to Tuesday.

FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TWEED, BRUNSWICK, RICHMOND/WILSONS, CLARENCE AND BELLINGER RIVER VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY TO TUESDAY

Issued at 9:46 am EDT on Saturday 8 January 2011

Note: This Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a Flood Warning [see note below].

Further heavy rain is predicted for the NSW northern rivers from Sunday to Tuesday.

The above catchments are wet from recent rain so there is a higher than 70% of local and main river flooding developing during Sunday evening onwards in the following:

1. Tweed Valley - moderate flooding including local flooding in several areas including Chillingham

2. Richmond and Wilsons Valleys - moderate to major flooding

3. Brunswick Valley - moderate to major flooding

4. Clarence Valley - including the Orara River - minor to moderate flooding

5. Bellingen Valley - minor to moderate flooding

[Shaun Galman]

Hi guys,

Boy there's some nice storms kicking around this season! Great coverage by all! Very interesting reading and some amazing photos.  

I have one of the only CG shots that I managed on the early morning's storms from Wednesday the 5th. There were several storms still highly active by the time I returned home around 2am. We almost got carried off by mosquito's and made getting out almost impossible. We were still getting badly bitten even when using plenty of Bushman's Repellent. No fun at all. These storms dumped 10mm in town but the bulk of the intense cores visible were mostly out to our North, sitting up around the border towns of Angledool and Hebel.

I'm keeping an eye on the Narran River heights now and again also. Seems this flood will be around a metre higher on average for some rivers in this area than the March 2010 event according to the BoM.  

The photograph below was taken around 1:20am and is looking almost straight North of the Ridge. The cell was moving left to right across this photo.

Kindest regards.

[Michael Bath]

Hi Shauno,

Yeah the mozzies !!!   Geez they even got to Rodney when we were in Narrabri on Monday evening and he's normally the last person they touch.  No bad mosquitos around my place despite all the rain.

[Shaun Galman]

Hi MB,

Most definitely! They are a real pest to say the least. We too have noticed they aren't "so bad" in town, but head out into the surrounding bush and you just about need to be wearing chainmail armour to stop the little so-and-so's.

I was being attacked through a long sleeved thick cotton shirt and jeans! I might not go out again unless it's really necessary ie; furious CG hitting very close to town surrounded by insane structure! That's not asking much is it? lol.

Looking like a decent rain event for the N-NE N.S.W. area over the coming days. Should be an interesting few days.

Kindest regards.
Shauno.

 

[Mathew Townsend]

Hi all

Flood warnings and severe weather warning is in place for us from this afternoon. BoM are looking at 70-100mm before 2pm as this rainband arrives however this could lead into major flooding for Richmond and Wilsons. Wilsons River at Lismore is peaking for 2nd time around 4pm this afternoon, as this rain arrives it will make it worse. Ballina scored over 255mm over for past 6 days now and it going to be doubled in next 24hours!

[Colin Maitland]

So far 8 confirmed dead from Toowoomba. 71 (updated) Missing and I think all up another 12 people dead from the start of the flooding up here. At least 20 deaths and that number will rise.

If you want to follow what unfolded as it took place please read WZ forum http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/topics/926313#Post926313   especially from page 188 - 214. later pages has a lot of disturbing images as they became available.

We are a long way from being out of trouble up here.

[Steven]

Steady rain here since early morning with occasional torrential falls and very close CG lightning.

[Mathew Townsend]

Lot of things still happening on our side and the event hasn't even started for NR 'yet'! Even though not even over yet.

Wilsons and Richmond Are under high alert for major flooding from this afternoon when the rain coming in.

[Leo76]

MINOR FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHMOND AND WILSONS RIVERS

Issued at 8:28 am EDT on Tuesday 11 January 2011

Flood Warning Number: 10

The Wilsons River at Lismore was 5.04 metres and near its peak at 7.05am this morning [11/01/11] with minor flooding.

The Richmond River at Kyogle Peaked near 13.4 metres at 11pm Monday [10/01/11] with minor flooding.

The Richmond River at Casino Road Bridge was 8.4 metres and rising at 7:55am this morning [11/01/11].

Minor flooding is current at Coraki and Bungawalbin.

Further rainfall is forecast for the next 24 hours which could result in increased flooding in the Richmond and Wilsons River Valleys. The situation is being closely monitored and revised predictions issued if necessary.

A Flood Watch is current for renewed moderate to major flooding along the Richmond and Wilsons River for the next 2 days.

Predicted River Heights/Flows:

Lismore -

Peak near 5.1 metres around 10am today [11/01/11], with minor flooding.

Casino Road Bridge -

Peak near 9.2 metres around midday today [11/01/11] with minor flooding.

Coraki -

Reach 4.5 metres around midday today [11/01/11] with minor flooding.

Bungawalbin -

Reach 4.0 metres this afternoon [11/01/11] with minor flooding.



The next warning will be issued at 1:00pm Tuesday [11/01/11].
Latest River Heights:
Location   Height of River   Date/Time of Observation
Richmond R at Wiangaree    7.36m falling   07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Kyogle    12.75m falling   07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Casino    10.4m rising    07:55 AM TUE 11/01/11
Eden Ck at Doubtful    8.08m steady    07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Shannon Brook at Yorklea    8.54m rising    07:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Leycester Ck at Rock Valley    3.39m rising    08:18 AM TUE 11/01/11
Goolmangar Ck at Nimbin    3.29m rising    08:08 AM TUE 11/01/11
Back Ck at Bentley    4.68m falling   08:23 AM TUE 11/01/11
Terania Ck at The Channon    4.14m falling    08:23 AM TUE 11/01/11
Coopers Ck at Repentance    2.31m steady    08:22 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Nashua    2.66m rising    08:20 AM TUE 11/01/11
Coopers Ck at Corndale    4.83m rising    08:22 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Eltham    4.49m falling    08:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Woodlawn (mAHD)    5.48m rising    08:19 AM TUE 11/01/11
Leycester Ck at Tuncester (mAHD)   5.55m falling    08:21 AM TUE 11/01/11
Wilsons R at Lismore (mAHD)    5.05m steady    08:21 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Coraki    4.03m rising    06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Myrtle Ck at Rappville    5.1m rising    06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Bungawalbyn    3.56m steady    06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11
Richmond R at Woodburn    2.59m steady    06:00 AM TUE 11/01/11

So the river is only under flood watch at the moment.

[Michael Bath]

The Clarence River at Grafton going for a major peak of 7.6m later today which is only 30cm below the top of the levee wall. Doesn't get up that high too often. Major flooding downstream to Maclean too.

Tenterfield copped serious flooding yesterday as well. It's normally just a small creek through that area at an elevation of 800m, but 230mm in quick time will do that. Certainly no rainfall intensities like Toowoomba and elsewhere. I think it's the first time I've seen footage of flooding in Tenterfield.