Topic: Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi : from 30 January

[Mathew Townsend]

Theres a new tropical low formed near Fiji.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/0002 UTC 2011 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.9S 173.7E AT 262100 UTC. POSITION GOOD. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.

TC WILMA HAS MOVED OUT OF RSMC NADI AREA OF RESPONSIBILTY AND THERE
WOULD BE NO MORE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTRE 1005HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
176.8W AT 262100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
REGION, IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[Simon McCombe]

Gale warning from RSMC Nadi. TC Yasi category 1 and intensifying. 30/01/2011                                                                                                                                                   
IDQ20080   
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland


GALE WARNING 086 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 30/0457 UTC 2011.

TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4
SOUTH 169.9 EAST AT 300300 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.4S 169.9E at 300300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 301500 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
  AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.3S 167.7E AT 301500 UTC
              AND NEAR 13.3S 165.2E AT 310300 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 085. 

RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.

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[Ursula]

it looks like the system is organising itself, the latest sat has it S 12.5/ W 168 the moisture levels are interesting and might point to eventual landfall in a day

[Paul D]

Current predictions seem to be pointing to a more severe system for TC Yasi over the coming days as it nears the Central/Nth QLD coast..
Latest Track map for TC Yasi from the Fiji Met (RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre)

[Simon McCombe]

Hi everyone. I've been keeping a eye on this monster for the last few days,as quite a few other people are also. Currently at severe category 3 and BoM predicting to reach severe category 4,with the slight chance of reaching a 5 ! Current tracking has it to hit somewhere between Cooktown and Yeppoon either late wednesday or thursday,and the state government and emergency services are in the process of evacuating people from hospitals and aged care homes now and several island resorts are evacuating people today or tomorrow. Also urging people in low lying areas to evacuate by wednesday,because of storm surges. As with a storm of this size and intensifying,predicted wind speeds near the eye could be up to 200 kms per hour and a category 4 up to 250 kms per hour,with predicted rainfall around 1 metre !!! Included are some satellite images and track maps from the last couple of days,courtesy from and copyright of Fiji Meteorological Service (RSMC Nadi TCWC.)

[Simon McCombe]

Images continued-

[Simon McCombe]

Images continued-

[Simon McCombe]

Forecast track maps-

[Simon McCombe]

Forecast track maps-

[Simon McCombe]

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

 

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:02pm EST on Monday the 31st of January 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities from
Cooktown to Yeppoon.

At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi, Category 3 was estimated to be
1780 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 1630 kilometres east northeast
of Mackay moving west at 30 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to intensify as it moves west over the Coral Sea.

Damaging winds are expected to develop about coastal and island communities
between Cooktown and Yeppoon Wednesday morning.

People between Cooktown and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au]
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage].

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 162.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 185 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 970 hectoPascals


Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm EST Monday 31 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

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[Simon McCombe]

BoM Brisbane TCWC track map                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

[Simon McCombe]

Sure is a beast,check out THAT core! Image courtesy of US National Environment Satellite,Data Information Service.

[Simon McCombe]

Latest image for TC Yasi. Courtesy US national Environment Satellite,Data Information Service and Japan Meteorological Agency MT SAT

[Colin Maitland]

Severe TC Yasi is now a Cat 5 System and heading towards FNQ coast. It is expected to cross later tonight and the early hours of tomorrow morning. At 4:00 Yasi was estimated to be 650 kilometres east northeast of Cairns and 650 kilometres northeast of Townsville moving west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour.

TC Yasi is expected to cross the coast later this evening/ early tomorrow morning between Cairns and Innisfail



The Stats on Yasi from BoM

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 151.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 30 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 924 hectoPascals

This is one of the most deadliest cyclones is Australia recorded history. 

[Colin Maitland]

Some info on TC Yasi and comparison to TC Tracy from the Sydney Morning Herald

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weathe...tml?from=smh_sb


Category five Cyclone Yasi's size and power will dwarf Cyclone Tracy, the most devastating storm in Australian history, and could cause even more widespread destruction.

Tracy struck Darwin in the early hours of Christmas Day in 1974, killing 71 people including 49 in the city and a further 22 at sea.

The majority of buildings in the Northern Territory capital were destroyed and a mass exodus saw the population plummet from about 48,000 to 10,500.
Advertisement: Story continues below
Flood map


Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said Cyclone Yasi was the largest cyclone he had ever observed in Australian waters on satellite images.

Overnight, Yasi was upgraded to a category five cyclone.

"The area that it's covering is massive and to see it so close to Australia, even 1000 kilometres away, is a bit haunting," Mr Dutschke said.

"It's definitely something I've not seen before."

And Yasi made Cyclone Tracy - the storm that destroyed Darwin in 1974 - pale in comparison.

"It's a huge contrast to Tracy. Tracy was a much smaller cyclone, a lot more compact and it just happened to pass directly over a major populated area," Mr Dutschke said.

"[Tracy] was a similar intensity to this one, but Yasi is much larger so it probably only has to get within a few hundred kilometres of a populated area and it could cause similar damage.

"It doesn't have to be as choosy as Tracy with its accuracy."

Mr Dutschke said such a severe cyclone was "always on the cards" during the La Nina weather pattern, because ocean surface temperatures were warmer than normal.

And Cyclone Yasi was so powerful, it could remain a cyclone even after it had reached the outback.

"The more intense they are when they make landfall, the further they need to go [inland] before they are no longer a cyclone," Mr Dutschke said.

"It's probably going to have to go 500 kilometres inland before it's no longer of a cyclone intensity.

"It can effectively be desert that far inland."

Once it reaches landfall, Yasi is expected to follow Cyclone Anthony's lead and head southwest.

Mr Dutschke said the effects of Yasi could be felt as far away as Adelaide.

"It will bring a lot of moisture and there's a reasonable chance for flooding along the Murray [River]," he said.

By comparison Cyclone Larry, which caused $1.5 billion worth of damage to Innisfail and surrounds, was a mid-level category four system when it hit in 2006.

"This of course is not only a system now tracking as more intense than Cyclone Larry, it is significantly larger than Cyclone Larry," Premier Anna Bligh said yesterday