First MAJOR tornado outbreak of the season Sunday and Monday!
The strongest trough of the spring (by far) is forecast to eject across the Southern Plains into the Mississippi River Valley Sunday into Monday, with prime conditions for tornadoes expected across these areas in the warm sector. The shape of the trough has been trending better and better during recent runs, with the 850 mb jet much more southerly in the warm sector for both Sunday (Southern Plains) and Monday (Mississippi River Valley), yielding very strong low-level shear conducive for strong tornadoes. Moisture quality will finally not be a problem with this system, with all models forecasting at least mid 60F dewpoint ahead of the advancing dryline and cold front. The jet streak will impinge on the Southern Plains by late afternoon/evening on Sunday providing the upper support, with the latest
NAM showing supercell initiation along the dryline in central OK into central KS where 0-1 km EHIs of 5+ will be found (see NAM forecast for 00z Monday above). These supercells will have the potential for producing tornadoes well into the evening, and rotating convection will become much more widespread as the night progresses. As the trough ejects from the Rockies, a massive uncapped, unstable, and highly sheared warm sector will mature by early Monday afternoon, setting the stage for a potentially historic tornado outbreak across AR, MO, KY, TN, MS, and northern LA. A robust southerly low-level jet will develop with 50+ knots at 850 mb across the entire uncapped warm sector, with attendant extremely high 0-1 km helicity values of 300+ m2/s2. Any isolated surface-based storms will quickly become tornadic in this atmosphere, and given the number of supercells expected.. I would not be surprised if 50+ tornadoes are reported across the lower Mississippi River Valley through Monday night. This could be a particularly dangerous severe weather episode, especially on Monday to the east of the Southern Plains, so residents in this area should be sure to have their weather radios fired up. TVN will be in the field chasing, so be sure to check our live streaming video at
TornadoVideos.net/live and
Rarearth.tv for additional updates and videos!
http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1-latest-news/1339-first-major-tornado-outbreak-of-the-season-sunday-and-monday
