Topic: Victoria bushfires 7 February 2009, record heatwave for SA, VIC, TAS and NSW 27 Jan to 8 Feb 2009

[Brad Hannon]

Here is a pic taken approx at the unfortunate time when Kinglake and surrounds were being hit by the horrendous blaze and one before midnight.  I chased a storm through the area a month ago and it was heavily forested with windy roads and rolling hills.  500 houses gone from the town.  The state death toll is rising, 49 confirmed now and many missing and so many reports of burnt out cars being found in the middle of roads where they were abandoned.  It was a very eerie night here, no smoke because of the SW pushing it away but I could see a feint orange glow under the PCu.

[Michael Bath]

This map shows the 850hPa temperature analysis for Saturday 7th February 2009 at 06z. Pretty much matches the GFS forecast posted a few days earlier.



To see 850 temps around 30 C this far south is unusual.

[Colin Maitland]

(Modified at 10:15pm.. Just letting of steam and sorrow, )


something that really is bugging me terribly and leaves me confused  and feeling ill, is if you  go back and read through this thread, members have posted charts, observations of the heat wave and dangerous conditions, and even the comparisons to that of Ash Wednesday. Now as a forum of members, with somewhat limited access to the full technology as the authorities have, were able to see the dangers involved. I wonder why no preventive action or compulsory evacuation was taken by govt and weather authorities. (I say this because all reports at this stage does not mention any such attempts.).

Kevin Rudd promised full access to army equipment, but a liitle to late for those who perished.

It does not seem enough warning or emergency procedure were in place, as a result, it is now estimated that over 66 people have perished in these horrendous fires. Could there have been more survivors if a better emergency plan was in place or more notice from Authorities. I know that the full story has not emerged, but it just leaves you distraught and upset. You feel for the people who losts love ones, or thoughts of those just before they were burnt to death. It really is a sad day. Our whole world weather system is becoming more severe as the climate shifts, we need better advance warnings and education for human society.

 The death toll from Victoria's bushfires has risen to 66 and police have confirmed 640 homes have been lost. ( from ninemsn)

The number of fatalities climbed throughout the day from this morning’s total of 14 as police moved through the burnt-out fire zones and inspected the remains of smouldering properties and the blackened shells of cars.

[Richary]

something that really is bugging me terribly and leaves me confused  and feeling ill, is if you  go back and read through this thread, members have posted charts, observations of the heat wave and dangerous conditions, and even the comparisons to that of Ash Wednesday. Now as a forum of members, with somewhat limited access to the full technology as the authorities have, were able to see the dangers involved. I wonder why no preventive action or compulsory evacuation was taken by govt and weather authorities.

Yes we have the comparisons with the Ash Wednesday conditions and the fire danger. But the problem is that despite being able to predict that fire danger was so much more than extreme, it still doesn't tell us where the fires will start - whether by lightning strikes, idiots throwing cigarette butts out the window, or worse still deliberately lighting them.

Do you evacuate all of country Victoria, including the edges of major cities or towns like Bendigo and Narre Warren?

Not living there I can't really comment on what warnings were issued, but the news stories I saw on various websites before the fires were certainly warning of the risk of fires.

76 dead last time I checked. Not prepared to check it again, every time I do the total goes up. On the positive side South Australia has been amazingly lucky (and well prepared) to avoid any major fires with the conditions they have been experiencing recently.

[Colin Maitland]

I agree with you, I am just blowing off some steam and just feel so sorry for those affected and those who perished. The special 1 hour news that we watched had many saying that they had little warning to evacuate and some of those who tried to leave were incinerated in their cars.

As you read of the unfolding news, the magnitude of the event is apocalyptic proportions. The toll already surpasses the 47 deaths in Victoria and 28 in South Australia in the 1983 Ash Wednesday fires, while the Black Friday blaze in 1939 claimed 71 lives. It is now Australia's worst bushfire disaster

The death toll from horrific bushfires across Victoria this weekend has reached 84, surpassing the number of people who perished in the 1983 Ash Wednesday blazes.

More than 700 homes have been lost in what is being described as 'Hell on Earth', and it is feared the death toll will pass 100.

Former Channel Nine newsreader Brian Naylor and his wife are among the victims of the Victorian bushfires.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

i feel so so Sorry for those people down in Victoria they have gone through drought and now this the latest on channel 10 indicates 88 lives claimed and 735 homes demolished 365,000 hectares of land burnt and fears of lightning strikes causing more fires as storms are ripping through now also 26 fires around Victoria. Who said global warming is here I believe it

stormboy

[Jimmy Deguara]

Without going too off topic, and I am certainly stunned by this event, but a disaster is just that - a disaster. Circumstances come together that were not anticipated in a specific place at a specific time and the result if there is a population is a catastrophe.

As Nick Moir suggested to me, most of the casualties occur when the wind changes. I am not sure if this was the case here but it seemed to be the case in one of the townships. I will take this discussion on a separate thread. Please discuss these issues in the Natural disasters and Preventative measures thread
Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Harley Pearman]

Briefly the Victorian bushfires have so far claimed 108 lives, burnt out 330,000 hectares and destroyed some 750 homes which is the latest as I write this.

However to keep to the main topic I have looked at some further data from various weather station sites on this heatwave just ended and find the following:-

a) - Poonacrie in South West New South Wales just had 14 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached and or exceeded 40C.
b) - Hay also in South West New South Wales had 13 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached or exceeded 40 degrees.
c) - Ivanhoe also in South West New South Wales had 14 days in a row from 26/1/2009 to 8/2/2009 where the maximum temperature exceeded 40 degrees.

This is relatively common across South West New South Wales.

Wagga Wagga had 13 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached or exceeded 37.8C.

Even Western Sydney had a fair run too being:-

a) Richmond had 4 days in a row where the maximum temperature topped 40C from 5/2/09 to 8/2/09. That is not common.

b) Penrith had 3 days in a row where the maximum temperature reached 40C but 4 days in a row where the maximum temperature exceeded 39C from 5/2/09 to 8/2/09.

c) As it reached 38.4C where I live 8/2/09, the maximum temperature reached 38C on 4 days in row from 5/2/09 to 8/2/09. That too is rare.

This is limited to Richmond, Penrith and Blacktown etc and the sea breeze influenced temperatures across much of Sydney throughout this event.

The cool change arrived at 8.40 pm Sunday night where I live that brought refreshing cool winds. Across Southern New South Wales, a narrow band of showers with some brief thunderstorms moved through the region dropping very light rainfalls ie 0.4 mm at Albury Airport (BOM Albury Airport Weather Station Site - Borella Road Albury) at around 8.30 am (9/2/09). It is allot cooler there now which will help the fire situation at nearby Beechworth and Yackandandah.

On 8/2/09, some very high maximum temperatures occurred again mainly in New South Wales including:-

Cobar - 42C, Fowlers Gap - 43C, Ivanhoe - 46C, Tibooburra - 42C, Wilcania - 44C, Condobolin - 43C, Dubbo - 40C, Griffith - 43C, Gundagai - 43C and Wyalong - 43C. This occurred in the areas where the cool change had not penetrated.

Maximum temperatures of 40C or over were also recorded in parts of the Hunter Valley eg Scone and Singleton and parts of Western Sydney eg Penrith and Richmond.

(All sourced from the Daily Weather Bulletins 3PM, Bureau of Meteorology 8/2/2009).

Even today 9/2/09, Tamworth on the North West Slopes of New South Wales is forecast to reach 40C which indicates that the cooler change is still to make its way into Northern New South Wales.


Harley Pearman

[Jeff Brislane]

I don't have much to add to the disbelief that's been experienced as a resulty of this tragedy. I grew up with Ash Wednesday occuring when i was ten and I thought it would always be the worst case scenario but I was obviously wrong. I believe that in the future, unless people build better and take more measures to ensure safety during extreme fire events we'll see the same happen again, especially as population density and development in fire prone areas increases. It's becoming obvious though that the area affected is particulary prone to powerful fires every 20 to 30 years.

One thing that I noted early on in the disaster was an angry warning by the CFA for "fire tourists" to stay away from the fires. Aparantly people were "fire chasing" into the danger areas and getting in the way. I wonder if some were people from the weather community or if they were other people.

Regards Jeff.

[Macca]

I think most people in this country are deeply saddened by what has happened in Victoria in the last 48 hours and most Melbournians, in some way or another, know someone who knows someone who lost something, whether it was property, pets or, tragically, life.  This will be a day which will go down in history and I hope it is a record we never see surpassed.   Being here in QLD has been very difficult for me in the last few days knowing the areas which are burning so well and knowing that friends and friends of friends are in the affected areas and not knowing their fate has been very difficult.  I've shed some tears and still feel sad.  These were my old stomping grounds where I started my storm chasing back in the late 1990's and knowing the affected areas so well just makes it that much harder. 

Once the malestrom settles down, whenever that may be, I would like to explore some of the meteorological conditions from Saturday - not just the extreme temperature and wind conditions, but the conditions "within" the fire zones.  Experts have stated that the fire danger indicies were (literally) off the scale with numbers as high as 400 coming in during Saturday afternoon.  Combine the conditions from Saturday with precipitating pyrocumulonimbus and there are some very interesting weather phenomenon occuring.  Hopefully things can be learned from today (meteorologically) which may help limit the impact of another such event.  More on this another day...maybe another week....maybe another month. 

For now, I'm going to concentrate my thoughts on my friends who have lost everything - not just houses, cars and posessions but also loved ones. 

Macca

[Jimmy Deguara]

Perhaps a little late but better late than never. Nick has asked me to post videos he toook of his recent trips down to SW Slopes and then near Lithgow, Central Coast and near Warragamba Dam:

http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=45928

http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=45912

Jimmy Deguara

[Richary]

I have one issue with the media reports. Firstly they are reporting it as a natural disaster. Then they are reporting that it appears the fires that killed the most people were the result of arson.

The two would seem to be mutually exclusive.

Either way it is a tragedy. I'm currently in Brisbane and one of the people we are working with has lost 2 friends in the Victorian fires, she grew up in the area.

[Michael Thomas]

As with everyone else I am saddened by the events on Saturday. To see so many people effected by these fires is terrible. I knew the conditions on Saturday were extreme but still I am shocked by just how badly things turned out. Do not think of it as cold but am also interested in the meteorological conditions on the day. I certainly agree with you Macca that there was quite possibly some very interesting weather phenomenon since tornadoes and even hail can be associated with pyrocumulonimbus storms. I have saved radar images of these fires but it would also be interesting to see vertical scans of these pyrocumulonimbus storms if they can be found.

Hopefully something can be learned from this tragedy so that it will never be repeated.

Michael 

[Michael Thomas]

John,

It must of been an interesting conference and it would have been good to see some of those presentations. You mention that the Forest Fire Danger Index is based an exponential relationship between humidity, wind speed, temperature, fuel loading etc. All of these factors are obviously extremely important but I was wondering do mid/upper level temperatures matter? I say this as cold mid-tropospheric temps (steep lapse rates) would be needed to form pyrocumulonimbus storms. Does the formation of a pyrocumulonimbus over a fire enhance the local environment by increasing wind speeds and/or supplying more oxygen to the fire? If so, should some kind of instability index be included in determining fire danger? I believe the lapse rate was dry adiabatic till 4-5 km AGL during the afternoon period on Saturday which is reasonably impressive.

Michael

[Jimmy Deguara]

John,

I think the indices are very meaningful as it does provide an opportunity for comparisons. Interestingly, and I suspect the temperatures are significant in such cases, the Black Friday fires of 1939 rank higher than the Ash Wednesday fires. Canberra interestingly also ranks higher than both of those.

John, can you go into some more comparisons as to how these indices are calculated an perhaps comparisons of mean wind perhaps, temperatures at sea level (Canberra is about 400 metres in altitude?), and an indices referring to the dryness - perhaps of the air and also some measure of dryness of the fuel and amounst of fuel.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara