Topic: Tropical Cyclone Ellie and North QLD Flooding: 30 Jan - 4 Feb 2009

[Colin Maitland]

I have been watching this one for a few days now, there is a  monsoonal trough that is  occuring east of Cooktown with a developing tropical low on the monsoonal trough.

The Ocean Wind Warning from BOM is as quoted below

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A tropical low of 1002hpa near 16S 149E on the monsoonal trough and a ridge of
higher pressure along the QLD coast are expected to generate Gale force winds
off the east coast over the next 6 hours.   

AREA AFFECTED
Area bounded by 19S 149E to 19S 157E to 21S 157E to 21S 150E to 19S 149E.

FORECAST
E/SE winds are expected to reach 34/40 knots with very rough over the next 6
hours.   


As Jimmy Deguara said in the SA/VIC heatwave thread

Up until now, the discussion has centred on the current conditions and forecasts of extreme heat. I would like to add that this massive region of extensive and prolonged heating has to give to some monsoonal activity in my opinion as the atmosphere slowly begins to cool down. We'll see what February holds.


Up here in QLD it has been hot and very humid. Its building up. If not this low there are other systems approaching the east QLD coast, so It's a case of keeeping an eye on the Sats pics one of the sites is( http://www.weatherzone.com.au/satellite.jsp?state=AUS). Tried freeze frame and save the pic but still learning.  Another good site is http://www.switchbanks.com.au/weatherworld.html. Just scroll down the page and there is so many features on this site.

[Carlos E]

This is from the other warning:

Synoptic Situation
A high over the Tasman Sea extended a firm ridge along the southern and central coast of Queensland. A monsoonal trough occurs east of Cooktown with a developing tropical low on the monsoonal trough.

They say developing Tropical Low, which is interesting. I guess this is something to keep an eye on!

Edit: Checked a little on it myself, it is quite weak at the moment, and is close to another weak Tropical Low which is currently south of the Gulf; this will significantly limit any development of this system, and I doubt it'll develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the short term (3 days). However, after this period it, or possibly a new low, could have some potential in the Coral Sea.

[Colin Maitland]

This has been issued today as a result of one of the lows.
These systems are forming quickly

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for damaging winds.

For people in coastal and island areas between Low Isles and Ingham
Issued at 4:20 am on Saturday 31 January 2009

A monsoonal low was located about 150 km north-east of Cairns. 

Expect damaging S/SE wind gusts to about 110 kph during the next 6 to 12 hours
about the exposed coast.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

the BOM on Friday stated that they expected this low to weaken by Monday, I have been observing the charts and WZ has the low at 999 by Thursday.
Still hanging around. Need to wait and see if BOM changes their outlook today for this low.
Their is a lot of moisture being dragged into it from the North east. 

[Carlos E]

I imagine that they'll update their forecast to state that a Tropical Cyclone could form next week, however, it's likely to head southeast, away from the coast.

[Colin Maitland]

The latest outlook for a cyclone from BOM as at 31/01/09

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:39pm on Saturday the 31st of January 2009

At 1pm Saturday, a vigorous monsoon trough extended across the Coral Sea with a
996 hPa tropical low located near 15.9S 147.9E [approximately 250km northeast of
Cairns]. The low has intensified during the last 24 hours. It is expected to
remain slow moving during the next 24-48 hours while remaining offshore. It will
be located off the coast between Cairns and Cardwell on Monday morning.

The probability of tropical cyclone development during the next three days is:

Sunday: Medium
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Low

[Carlos E]

What a stubborn low that is. They've been saying for the last 3 days it'll weaken and it hasn't done so in fact it's done the opposite.

Bougainville Reef recorded mean winds of 61km/h before (not gusts) from the Tropical Low.

The gusts would be near 85km/h, which actually does put it close to Cyclone intensity (although this system doesn't have the strongest winds near the center atm). I hate Coral Sea disturbances, they always seem harder to predict.

[Colin Maitland]

here is the latest Sat Pic, helps to explains why

[Colin Maitland]

Latest warning for the tropical low

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Flash Flooding
Severe Weather Warning for people in coastal and island areas between Cardwell
and Mackay
Issued at 6:55 pm on Saturday 31 January 2009

At 6pm Saturday a vigorous monsoon trough extended across the Coral Sea with a
slow southwards moving 996 hPa tropical low located approximately 260km
northeast of Cairns.

A band of rain extends from the western flank of the low along the coast towards
Yeppoon. Locally heavier falls are expected to develop between Cardwell and
Mackay later this evening and overnight, which may lead to flash flooding.
The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:
· avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters 

the low has dropped 6 hpa in just over 24 hours.
It seems to be intensifying.

[Colin Maitland]

At 5:30 am Sunday a Tropical Cyclone Ellie was located 180 km northeast of
Cardwell.  Winds to the south of the system may produce local damaging wind
gusts on the coast between Ayr and Sarina.   
Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 6:54am on Sunday the 1st of February 2009

A Cyclone WARNING remains current for coastal and island communities from Cairns
to Ayr.

At 6:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ellie, Category 1 was estimated to be
165 kilometres east of Cairns and 205 kilometres northeast of Cardwell and
moving slowly southwest towards the coast.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLIE, CATEGORY 1, with gusts up to 100 km/h may be close to
the coast by Monday morning.

STRONG GALES may develop on the coast during this afternoon between Cairns and
Ayr.

Higher than normal tides are expected, but the sea level should not exceed the
highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

Flooding is likely in the warning area due to heavy rain. 

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ellie at 6:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.2 degrees South 147.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals

[Carlos E]

I love how stupid this storm has made me look...

Ah well, the future forecast...

It is expected to re-curve back out to the Coral Sea after making landfall, when it does this, the Vertical Wind Shear (which was the reason I was so confident that it wouldn't form in the first place) should have subsided somewhat, and it should allow the storm to intensify at a more steady pace. At this stage, it's expected to be moving away from the coast when this happens.

I knew the low would enter land and re curve, but I was basing it on the fact that it had a low chance of forming before it made landfall, and that conditions were expected to improve thereafter. *Sigh*

[Colin Maitland]

This is the latest synoptic chart for 5pm Sunday. (Chart 1)

Also is the forecasted synoptic chart by the bureaus models for  Saturday 7/02/09, predict the low to be somewhere around Mackay/ Rockhampton.  (chart 2) That is if Ellie has gone back out to sea and regenerates or combines, or if this a total new low that will form.

Another synoptic chart hinted that in about 92 - 124 hours time there could be a formation of a low in WA again. To early to say whether this will form a tropical low at this stage.

So a few things to keep an eye on.

[Michael Bath]

Looks like Weatherzone are going for the EC scenario which has the TC or ex-TC moving along the entire QLD coast to the border by +168 hours.

[Colin Maitland]

TC Ellie  Cat 1 was short lived. She crossed the coast just after midnight near Mission beach. She has now been downgraded to a tropical low that will cause heavy rain and flooding.

So far to date this cyclone season, while still young, has only seen TC form quickly and very close to land. So far they have not been able to build to any great strength.

TC Billy of WA has been the strongest to date for 2008/09 season in Australia.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Michael,

Looks like Weatherzone are going for the EC scenario which has the TC or ex-TC moving along the entire QLD coast to the border by +168 hours.

Without even looking at the models, this was the scenario I was thinking - let's look back at Tropical Cyclone Nancy almost 20 years ago in 1990 during early February when we had phenomenal rainfall events right down to the Sydney region. Dick Whitacker was also on TV this mornning suggesting that the pattern was reminiscent of 1974 when heavy rainfall events broke some records!

I guess we'll see if this one pans out or subsequent events do the trick.

As I said previously - backed up by Macca, the extent coverage of the heating across the inland and the relatively higher dew points has to lead to some massive exchange.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Colin Maitland]

From looking at the synoptic charts and  COLA  MSLP charts, Thursday- Saturday (5/02/-7/02/09), this week shows there are some new lows forming accros the top of Australia (WA- QLD) . There is a very strong cold front that will effect Tasmania, VIC and SA.

I am keeping an eye on another low well out in the Coral Sea to see what it will do and the affect it will have on our weather pattern.

It is very muggy in Brisbane and QLD. it has been very overcast and we have had showers every day since last Tuesday (27/01/09)

North QLD has been flooded for some time with many towns cut off. ( mozzies with the Dengue fever is a big problem).

There is a definate comparison, as it was said in another thread, of the 1973/74 season.

This is a typical view from the back verandah for the last week.


Cheers
.