Topic: Drought statements 2009 - Victoria and South West New South Wales

[Harley Pearman]

March rainfall situation for Victoria and Southern New South Wales

Rainfall deficiencies continue for much of the area affected by drought. Rain occurred over all areas of the state however it has not removed the deficiencies. The data provided below is derived from:-

Goulburn Murray Water (Victoria).
Murray Darling Basin Authority.
Bureau of Meteorology.
Weatherzone.

All parts of Victoria had rainfall however typically, areas north of the Great Dividing Range experienced lighter falls typically 10-25 mm being common. However areas adjacent to the Great Dividing range had higher totals of between 25 and 50 mm.

East of Melbourne, some good falls occurred with 50 to 100 mm occurring.
Gippsland had between 10 and 50 mm.
The South west of the state had falls between of 25 and 50 mm.

While some areas in south west New South had some welcome falls, southern New South Wales continues to struggle with 10-25 mm being common with some areas getting 5 to 10 mm for the month.

The latest drought map is provided below. It is concluded that the rains that fell during March has not improved the drought situation.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain

Southern New South Wales is now suffering "Serious to Severe Rainfall Deficiency.
The Highlands of North East Victoria is satisfactory.
The North West of Victoria continues to suffer "Severe Rainfall Deficiency".
Melbourne continues to suffer "Severe deficiency".
Gippsland continues to suffer from "Serious to Severe Rainfall Deficiency".

Note:- This does not include the rain and thunderstorms that fell on 3/4/2009 as the cut off date for this information is 31/3/2009.

To highlight the ongoing dry, the rainfall tally for the 21 selected centres similar to the February statement is provided below. It shows a state suffering water stress and rainfalls that are well below the norm.

Place Name                 Rainfall for Jan to end of March               Normal Rainfall

Albury-Wodonga          35.4 mm                                              93.6 mm 
Ararat                        27.2 mm                                             104.8 mm
Bairnsdale                  65.8 mm                                              138.3 mm
Ballarat                      43.2 mm                                              125.4 mm
Bendigo                     27.2 mm                                              82.8 mm
Casterton                  43 mm                                                 91.7 mm                                               
Echuca                      17.6 mm                                              83.9 mm
Geelong                     37.8 mm                                              100 mm   
Hamilton                    34 mm                                                 94.3 mm
Horsham                    14.2 mm                                              70.7 mm 
Kerang                      9.8 mm                                                73.3 mm
Melbourne                  51.4 mm                                              146 mm
Mt Hotham                 138.6 mm                                             241.8 mm
Mildura                      24.2 mm                                               59.8 mm
Portland                     54.4 mm                                              95.3 mm
Shepparton                34.6 mm                                               72.4 mm
Wangaratta                50.4 mm                                              113.4 mm
Warrnambool               47.8 mm                                              98.2 mm

New South Wales

Griffith                      28.8 mm                                               94.3 mm
Hay                          35.3 mm                                               83.9 mm
Wagga Wagga            51.4 mm                                               119.9 mm

The table shows that not one selected urban centre in the drought affected area has recorded anywhere near adequate rainfall for the first three months of 2009.

The figures have been obtained from the weather stations via Weatherzone (March 2009).

The low rainfall continues to be reflected in dam levels which reinforces a state under water stress. The dams selected are the same as those used for the February statement:-

Cairn Curren Reservoir - 2.29% capacity and holding 3,369 megalitres.
Dartmouth Reservoir - 21.71% capacity and holding 848,159 megalitres.
Eildon Dam - 13.09% capacity and holding 436,542 megalitres.
Hume Dam - 3.57% capacity and holding 108,582 megalitres.
Lake Eppalock - 5.94% capacity and holding 18,087 megalitres.
Tullaroop - 4.17% capacity and holding 3,042 megalitres.

The stress on some catchments and systems is significant, especially along the Murray River.

(Figures are quoted from Goulburn Murray Water 4/4/2009 - Storage Catchments).
http://www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/storage-levels

Rainfall at the selected weather stations at the dam sites for 2009 (1 January to 31 March 2009) shows the water stress that is occurring.

Dam site                           Rainfall for 2009                Rainfall for same period in 2008     

Cairn Curran Reservoir           23.6 mm                          50 mm
Dartmouth Reservoir             85.8 mm                          173.8 mm
Eildon Dam                          60.4 mm                          103 mm
Hume Dam                          44.4 mm                          156.8 mm
Lake Eppalock                     28.6 mm                           48.8 mm
Tullaroop                            24.4 mm                          30.2 mm

The drought statement map provided below reinforces the above and shows that Southern New South Wales and most of Victoria continuing to receive below average rains and experiencing drought conditions.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

Likely April to June rainfall for the drought affected regions

I have been looking at possible rainfall trends for the drought affected region April to June 2009.

The models prepared by the Bureau of Meteorology paints a grim picture for South West New South Wales and much of western Victoria.

Models are showing that the chance of above median rainfall is less than 40% over south west New South Wales and Victoria except East Gippsland. The chances of exceeding above median rainfall in western Victoria drops to 35%. It means that drier than normal conditions have a 60% to 75% chance of occurring across the broad region.

The rainfall outlook confidence and associated rainfall map prognosis is available at:-

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml

Heading titled "Mixed June quarter rainfall odds in the east and south" prepared by the Bureau of Meteorology dated 24 March 2009.

The Bureau of Meteorology site 'Water and the Land" contains an interactive feature on likely rainfall patterns and rainfall models up to 3 months in advance at:-

http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/rainfall/exceedance.html

For Rainfall outlook. This is relatively new on the website.

Go to Rainfall, then click on 3 months Outlook.
Then click on any of the Australian states.

It is possible to view various rainfall scenarios by clicking on the icons. Specific to Victoria and southern New South, the model rainfall plot - April to June has been generated from this (Below). The plot suggests that some rainfall will return to southern Victoria but north of the Great Dividing Range, the plot suggests that rainfalls will be light for the next three months and hence the drought continuing.

The Sydney Morning Herald dated 8 April 2009 ran a very good article titled 'Murray Flows Lowest in a Century" by Debra Jopson (8/4/2009) at:-

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/murray-flows-lowest-in-a-century-2...

It reinforces the low water levels in the stricken Murray River that are occurring. Critical to the article are the following points:-

- The amount of water flowing in the Murray January to March quarter is the lowest in 117 years since records were kept.

- The lowest flows on record have been identified.

- More dry weather is predicted for the next three months and hence the drought looks set to continue.

- The total water storage of the entire system is now down to 11%.

The desperately needed rainfall does not appear to be on the horizon and hence the water situation is not likely to improve.

The possible April to June rainfall plot for Victoria and southern New South Wales is below.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

Drought worsens in Southern Murray Darling Basin:

I found this storey in Weatherzone 17/4/2009 relevant to the ongoing dry in the southern Murray Darling Basin:-

"Drought Worsens in Southern Murray Darling Basin".

It is stated that South West New South Wales has completely missed out on the recent rainfall and some places are struggling through one of the driest starts to a year on record. There are towns that have received 10 mm of rain so far for 2009 being well short of the normal average. The towns of Deniliquin and Renmark have been singled out in which it is stated that Deniliquin has had 10 mm for 2009 and Renmark has had 2 mm for 2009 up to 17/4/2009.

The extreme dry follows consistent below average rains since 2001.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/drought-worsens-in-southern-murray-darling-basin/11707

Actual 2009 rainfalls for the places in the above mentioned storey up to 17/4/2009 provides a sobering thought as to how dry it is here. Figures are taken from the local weather stations - Weatherzone 17/4/2009.

Renmark  - 2.4 mm on 2 days. Average rainfall to the end of April is 54.6 mm.
Deniliquin - 10.1 mm on 11 days. Average rainfall to the end of April is 125.5 mm over 16.6 days.

Currently, average rainfall for the 2 centres is a fraction of what it should be under normal conditions.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

April rains ease dry conditions in North East Victoria

Rains during the month of April has helped to ease serious rainfall deficiencies especially in North East Victoria however, deficiencies across much of the state remains. In particular:-

3 Month drought statement - April rainfall has eliminated serious deficiencies except for 2 areas being East Gippsland and an area North West of Melbourne and Geelong but South of Ballarat.

6 Month drought statement - The whole of Victoria appears satisfactory.

9 Month drought statement - Rainfall deficiencies exist around Melbourne and North West to Ballarat towards the South Australian border and a small area is suffering "Severe deficiency" being North West of Geelong with the rest of Victoria being satisfactory.

12 Month drought statement - Long term deficiencies still exist around Melbourne including severe deficiencies East and West of Melbourne including Geelong and Ballarat.

The plots provided below from the Bureau of Meteorology "Water and the Land" site show the 3 month drought statement from February to the end of April 2009 as well as the 3 monthly rainfall plot for the state as well as for Southern and South West New South Wales. The rainfall plot is for 1 February to 30 April 2009.

Sites and information used to complie this are derived from:-

Bureau of Meteorology.
Weatherzone.
Goulburn Murray Water.
Murray Darling Basin Authority.

http://www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/rainfall.asp
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi

In addition to the maps and plots provided below, actual rainfall and normal rainfall from 1 January to April 30 2009 for the selected towns and cities is provided below from Weatherzone:-

Town/ city               Rainfall Jan-April                                         Normal Rainfall

Albury-Wodonga       120.2 mm on 21 days                                   126 mm   (Almost average)
Ararat                     56.4 mm on 25 days                                    148.3 mm (Rainfall is low)
Ballarat                   76.2 mm on 31 days                                    178 mm (Rainfall is low)
Bendigo                   49.8 mm on 15 days                                    108.6 mm (Below average)
Casterton                95.4 mm on 44 days                                    135.3 mm (Below average)
Echuca                   38.2 mm on 13 days                                    116.6 mm (Rainfall is low)
Geelong                  77 mm on 33 days                                       149.8 mm (Rainfall is low)
Hamilton                 70.4 mm on 38 days                                     131.9 mm (Rainfall is low)
Horsham                 34.4 mm on 14 days                                     99.7 mm (Rainfall is low)
Kerang                   36.6 mm on 11 days                                     98.6 mm (Rainfall is low)
Melbourne               90.6 mm on 31 days                                     203.9 mm (Less than half)
Mt Hotham              285 mm on 36 days                                      321.1 mm (Near average)
Mildura                   45.2 mm on 13 days                                     78 mm (Below average)
Portland                 120 mm on 35 days                                      136 mm (Near average)
Shepparton             64 mm on 18 days                                       106.9 mm (Below average)
Wangaratta             90.6 mm on 19 days                                    155.3 mm (Below average)
Warrnambool           147.6 mm on 42 days                                   143 mm (Slightly above)

Southern inland New South Wales

Griffith                   50.2 mm on 13 days                                     123.3 mm (Less than half)
Hay                       68.1 mm on 14 days                                     112.1 mm (Low rainfall)
Wagga Wagga         83.6 mm on 15 days                                     161.6 mm (51.7% to date)

Hence during the month of April, all areas of Victoria received some rain but in areas away from North East Victoria and parts of the South West, the amounts that fell did not remove the longer term deficits. Some areas continue to fare poorly.

As shown at the selected dams below, the 1 January to 30 April 2009 rainfall is provided as well as the 1 January to 30 April 2008 rainfall to show a comparison.

Dam site                         Dam levels as at 2 May 09         2009 Rainfall   2008 Rainfall

Cairn Curren Reservoir        1.89%                                    49.6 mm        58.6 mm
Dartmouth Reservoir          20.85%                                  194.6 mm       219 mm
Eildon Reservoir                12.18%                                  135 mm          125.4 mm 
Hume Dam                       3.12%                                    130.6 mm       175.4 mm 
Lake Eppalock                  5.98%                                    50.6 mm         59 mm
Tullaroop                         3.97%                                   52.2 mm         35.8 mm
     
During April 2009, the selected dam sites experienced in descending order 26 mm, 109 mm, 74.6 mm, 92.4 mm, 22 mm and 27.8 mm of rainfall. Generally areas away from North East Victoria did not experience solid rainfall.

Further the capacity of the Hume Reservoir fell to 2.7% during April and at 2 May 2009, the capacity had risen barely to 3.12% or 94,791 megalitres indicating that minor runoff or inflows may have occurred from rainfall falling further upstream. As indicated by the Murray Darling Basin Authority, there are low flows from Dartmouth Reservoir because water needs to be retained for next summer.

All parts of the state received rainfall during April however it is noted that:-

- North east Victoria and especially the Upper North East received between 100 and 200 mm.
- Adjacent hills and ranges in the same general area receiving from 50 to 100 mm.
- East Gippsland receiving 50-100 mm but some areas receiving 25-50 mm.
- Northern country away from the highlands receiving 25-50 mm.
- South West receiving 50-100 mm.
- Wilson's Promontory receiving 100 to 200 mm.
- Western areas receiving scattered falls of between 25 and 50 mm but 10-25 mm elsewhere.
- North West receiving 10-25 mm.

3 Monthly anomalies 1 February to April 2009

Following good April rainfalls, North East Victoria now has rainfalls close to average or between 0 and 25 mm below average.

Elsewhere it is less promising:-

- Northern Country continues to experience rainfalls 25 to 50 mm below average.
- Melbourne is experiencing rainfall that is at least 100 mm below average.
- East Gippsland is experiencing rainfall that is 50 to 100 mm below average.
- There are portions of East Gippsland suffering large rainfall deficits of between 100 and 200 mm below average.
- The South West is near satisfactory with rainfalls close to average or between 0 and 25 mm below average.
- The western areas is experiencing rainfalls 25 to 50 mm below average.
- The North West is experiencing rainfalls 25 to 50 mm below average.
- The far North West close to the South Australia border has rainfalls of between 0 and 25 mm below average indicating a slightly improved condition here.

In conclusion, there has been some recovery during the month especially across North East Victoria and adjacent areas as well as some improvements in some far western and south western areas. However, for the majority of the state, the rainfall deficits are still noticeable to significant.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

NSW Sustainable Development Conference - Discussion of the ongoing drought

On Tuesday and Wednesday 12 and 13 May 2009, I attended the New South Wales Sustainable Development Conference at Darling Harbour. The morning topic was on "Water issues" with extensive reference to the drought affecting the Murray Darling Basin.

In particular after the fifth speech given by Ian Blair, Director of Quadraco Asia Pacific, I had a discussion with him on what the future represents for the Murray Darling Basin given the critical water issues faced and the drought.

The speech by Dr Fraser Mäc Leod (First speech dealing with rainfall patterns) he describes the situation as extremely serious. For example in 2006/2007, rainfall in many areas of the basin especially the south east was the lowest on record.

He describes how a 13% drop in rainfall has lead to a 39% reduction in runoff into rivers and streams. He also describes that we are into the third year with record low inflows into rivers and dams. In good years maximum storage levels in dams in the basin could be as high as 30.076 GL (Gigalitres). However with the drought and lower rainfall patterns the system is under very serious stress and new plans and initiates are required to address drought, declining rainfall, even climate change and water use. It is a difficult matter to solve given the pressures involved.

The new plans to manage declining water supplies will be tough to produce in an era where recent drought has pushed system into "Uncharted territory".

Following the speech by Chris Davies (Third speech), the Mayor of Leeton in the Riverina of New South Wales described the drought as destroying the fabric of communities in his area. For example, the rice industry has effectively been wiped out in the area and there is depopulation occurring from smaller towns to larger centres.

Ian Blair, the fifth speaker prodcued data showing some areas in the basin in southern New South Wales experiencing a decline in rainfall of 180 millimetres since the early 1990s.

I was fortunate enough to speak to Ian after his speech and asked him a question as to what the future represents for the basin given:-

- Climate change.
- Dwindling water resources.
- Low dam levels (I provided an example of Hume Dam being a little over 3% capacity of recent times).
- On going drought.
- Depopulation of small country centres.

He described to me how agriculture will be forced to adapt or die out and some forms of agriculture such as rice growing may never recover. Small scale intensive agriculture that has low water use could survive in this new environment but generally the level of agriculture seen in the past is unlikely to be seen again.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

Winter rainfall predictions for southern New South Wales and Victoria

I have been looking at likely rainfall scenarios across inland Southern New South Wales and Victoria for the period June to August 2009 and evidence is emerging that a new El Nino weather pattern may be on its way from August onwards.

Rainfall plots suggests the following:-

- The chance of exceeding median rainfall June to August sits between 40% and 45% across a swathe of southern New South Wales and most of Victoria except East Gippsland where it sits between 45% and 50%.

- Portions of Southern Victoria is situated in the 35% to 40% range of exceeding its median rainfall during the period.

Models seem to suggest a general drying trend starting to occur especially over the western areas of Victoria. Additionally:-

- The majority of the state of Victoria has a 75% chance of receiving at least 100 mm of rain except the NW areas close to the Murray River.
- The mountainous areas of North East Victoria as well as pockets of the south west coast and Wilson's Promontory has a 75% chance of receiving up to 200 mm of rain.
- Pockets of North East Victoria has a 65% chance of receiving up to 300 mm of rain but that is limited to the mountainous areas.

The website http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp and http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml has been used for this summary.

The attached plot below shows the regions that has a 75% chance of receiving up to 200 mm of rain for the period. The details can be found at the Bureau of Meteorology Website under the heading "Water and the Land". Click on "Rainfall". Then click on "3 Month Outlook". Then click "Chance of at Least".

Plots can be generated for various scenarios. Generally most of the state stands a good chance of receiving falls approaching 100 mm during the three month period but beyond that, the areas that may receive a greater amount declines.

Possible new El Nino From August 2009:

The ENSO status at 21 May 2009 raises serious concerns regarding the next El Nino phase weather pattern. Critical points are:-

- Possible trend towards the next El Nino but requiring monitoring.
- The Equatorial Pacific Ocean has warmed.
- The SOI in April was plus 9 however during May it plunged to negative 7 (May 21 reading).
- Trade winds are weaker.
- The cloud cover at the International Date Line is not showing much change.

The CSIRO has introduced an experimental computer model still being tested called POAMA - Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia.

The models are available for viewing and plots can be generated. From POAMA, I was looking at the SST plot forecast 28 April to 27 May 2009 which was showing the following:-

- The Humbolt Current off Ecuador had showed a warming trend of 1.5C to 2.5C and a belt of warm water started to stretch west across the Equator region of the Pacific Ocean.

- Water temperatures off NE Australia are stable but a cooler body of water is evident well off the coast of NE Australia.

July 2009:- A water temperature plot can be generated for July which was showing the warming trend extending further west across the Pacific Ocean.

December 2009:- A water temperature plot can be generated for December which appears to be the limit of the models. The models show extensive warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.

The POAMA model while experimental is showing El Nino conditions later in 2009 especially from spring.

The POAMA model is a new forecast system based on a coupled ocean / atmosphere model and ocean atmosphere land observation assimilation system. It is still being tested and its website is:-

http://poama.bom.gov.au/

The POAMA model shows:-

2-4 months - Warm.
5-7 months - Warm.

The NCEP model shows:-

2-4 months - Warm.
5-7 months - Warm.

Generally, most weather models seem to show a warming trend although the UK Model shows neutral conditions for the 2-4 month period and N/A for the 5-7 period.

The SOI is currently neutral but a warming phase is starting to show with SSTs around 0.5C warmer. Additionally the May 27 SOI shows a further drop to - 11.

The plot for the cloud cover at the International Date Line does not show much change at this stage.

Numerous model plots can be generated from POAMA. To access the POAMA models and the cloud cover plot for the International Date Line, the following website can be used http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

Follow the links provided.

El Nino events are associated with drier than normal conditions and or drought conditions over Eastern Australia. Southern New South Wales and most of Victoria has not recovered from the previous drought and areas of long term serious to severe water deficiencies and rainfall deficiencies remain. A new El Nino phase if it does eventuate later this year is a cause of concern. This too will be discussed in this thread as time progresses.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Harley,

I have been noticing the long-range rainfall forecast on Weatherzone(.com.au) is prediciting steep negative values for Spring 09 in the Central district of VIC (incl Melbourne metro & Suburban areas). This would also suggest El-Nino is on its way back again - which does not pose well for rainfall in VIC come spring, when rainfall here is normally at its peak. Looks like dryness is yet to depart here.

Big Pete

[Peter J]

- Pockets of North East Victoria has a 65% chance of receiving up to 300 mm of rain but that is limited to the mountainous areas.

I must admit that a large portion of that rainfall will fall as Snow on those areas...

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

May 2009 Rainfall and Drought Report with reference to Melbourne's Water Supply

A single rain event across Western Victoria provided some short term relief from the dry however many areas of the state continued to experience significant rainfall deficiencies. In particular:-

- The 3 month drought statement shows rainfall deficiencies confined to an area north west of Geelong and a portion of Gippsland (East Gippsland). The short term plots do not show the drought too well and suggests that Victoria is mostly satisfactory in the short run.

- The 6 month drought statement shows a different storey with severe rainfall deficiencies covering Eastern Melbourne including an area classified as "Lowest on record" for an area north east of the city in the Dandenong Ranges and severe deficiencies affecting East Gippsland, Geelong and region and "Serious"deficiencies covering the rest of southern Victoria.

- The 9 month drought statement shows Melbourne suffering "Severe deficiencies" including "lowest on record" east and west of Melbourne. Severe rainfall deficiencies cover Southern Victoria including Ballarat and Bendigo as well as in Western Victoria.

The 12 month plot is reproduced below. The 12 month plot from 1 June 2008 to 31 May 2009 shows the drought impact much better. There are "Severe deficiencies" around Melbourne and Geelong, south coast of NSW close to the Victorian border and western Victoria. There are also "Serious rainfall deficiencies" stretching through southern New South Wales including Albury - Wodonga region and Wagga Wagga region.

Given the situation in Melbourne, reference is made to Melbourne's water supply. As at 3 June 2009 Melbourne's water supply was at 26.1% capacity and the Thompson Reservoir was down to 178,783 megalitres or 16.7% capacity.

The information provided in this statement is derived from data from:-

Bureau of Meteorology.
Weatherzone.
Goulburn Murray Water.
Melbourne Water.

The 12 month drought plot is generated from http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi

Rainfall in the selected regional centres from 1 January to 31 May 2009 are below:-

Albury Wodonga
127 mm on 24 days (Normal is 179.6 mm on 26.3 days). Only 6.8 mm fell in May compared to its long term average of 52 mm. This was very close to the 2005 figure of 3.2 mm which is the lowest on record. May was extremely dry here.

Ararat
110 mm on 38 days (Normal is 202 mm on 44.8 days). This is 54.4% of the average.

Bairnsdale
110.6 mm on 42 days (Normal is 250.7 mm on 50 days). This is 43.8% of the average.

Ballarat
96 mm on 44 days (Normal is 243.5 mm on 53.2 days). This is 39.4% of the average.

Bendigo
69.8 mm on 21 days (Normal is 155.3 mm on 32.4 days). This is 44.9% of the average.

Casterton
162.8 mm on 72 days (Normal is 195.5 mm on 52.9 days). Almost average.

Echuca
51.4 mm on 17 days (Normal is 157.7 mm on 26.3 days). This is just 32.9% of the average.

Geelong
97.2 mm on 46 days (Normal is 200.8 mm on 45.4 days). This just under half its normal rain for the 5 months.

Hamilton
124.2 mm on 60 days (Normal is 180.4 mm on 54.8 days). Hamilton received 54.2 mm of rain during May which was above its normal average of 48.5 mm.

Horsham
98.4 mm on 27 days (Normal is 142.5 mm on 27.6 days).

Kerang
48.4 mm on 16 days (Normal is 134.8 mm on 22.3 days). Kerang has received 35.9% of its normal rain to date.

Melbourne
Melbourne is singled out receiving 101.4 mm on 40 days (Normal is 260.3 mm). This is 158.9 mm below average. This is 38.9% of its normal rainfall.

Mt Hotham
382.9 mm on 42 days (Normal is 449.4 mm on 54.3 days). This is 85.2% of average.

Mildura
55.8 mm on 22 days (Normal is 103.6 mm on 21.3 days). This is 53.8% of average.

Portland
159.4 mm on 56 days (Normal is 195 mm on 58.4 days).

Shepparton
73.6 mm on 23 days (Normal is 139.2 mm on 26.7 days). This is 52.8% of the average.

Wangaratta
106.8 mm on 23 days (Normal is 220.4 mm on 32.1 days). This is 48.4% of the average.

Warrnambool
210.4 mm on 62 days (Normal is 196.8 mm on 59.8 days). Rainfall is slightly above average here.

South West New South Wales

Griffith
54.2 mm on 15 days (Normal is 159.8 mm on 22.8 days). This is 33.9% of the average. Only 4 mm fell in May compared to its May average of 36.5 mm.

Hay
79.5 mm on 17 days (Normal is 147.1 mm on 21.5 days). This is 54% of the average to date.

Wagga Wagga
91.2 mm on 18 days (Normal is 213.7 mm on 31.8 days). This is 42.6% of the average to date.

Rainfall and water capacity at the chosen dam sites are:-

Dam site           Capacity      Rainfall to end of 31 May 2009   Rainfall for same period 2008

Cairn Curren      1.83%            64.8 mm                                90.6 mm
Dartmouth        21.15%           217.6 mm                              249.8 mm       
Hume Dam        6.60%            139 mm                                 199.2 mm
Lake Eildon       12.23%          162 mm                                 178.8 mm 
Lake Eppalock   5.98%            66.8 mm                                83.7 mm
Tullaroop          3.84%            69 mm                                  72.4 mm

Lake Mokoan in Northern Victoria has dried up recording a capacity of 0%.

The state of Victoria is not well placed to endure any El Nino weather event should it emerge later this year.

There was a single rain event across parts of Western Victoria during May but most areas missed out. In particular:-

- Very much below average rains prevailed around Albury Wodonga region, Gippsland as well as Melbourne (In Decile 1).
- Some western areas reached average rainfalls.
- The rest of the state recorded below average rains (In Decile 2 and 3).

The 12 month drought plot for the state is attached below as discussed earlier.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

...The 6 month drought statement shows a different storey with severe rainfall deficiencies covering Eastern Melbourne including an area classified as "Lowest on record" for an area north east of the city in the Dandenong Ranges and severe deficiencies affecting East Gippsland, Geelong and region and "Serious"deficiencies covering the rest of southern Victoria...

Harley - I think you found my area - where I live is in the Dandenong Ranges area (to the western edge of it), and our rainfall here is about 39% of the norm for this time of the year - also I believe the dam levels are now in the trigger stage for  Stage 5 water restrictions - but this government won't go there, coz it will cost too many jobs and close too many small businesses.

Big Pete

[Jimmy Deguara]

Harley,

He described to me how agriculture will be forced to adapt or die out and some forms of agriculture such as rice growing may never recover. Small scale intensive agriculture that has low water use could survive in this new environment but generally the level of agriculture seen in the past is unlikely to be seen again.

Perhaps some farmers will be not survive but to suggest that some forms of agriculture will not recover or that we may never see the level of agriculture seen in the past is pretty brave assumption given that this was a very severe drought. Just remember, besides the drought, international market pricing and subsidies on agricultural products also forced a change in farming techniques as well as types of cultivation. Let alone the impact of greedy banks lending out ample funds and the claiming farms in return have not assisted either! The main impacts of this prelonged and widespread drought were lack of water from an irrigation purpose with increases in salinity another major concern. If rainfall and snow melt in the Snowy Mountains returned to normal or even above average, wouldn't the MIA ( Murrimbidgee Irrigation Area ) have access to plentiful supplies of water remembering that this region without irrigation could not sustain such rich agriculture perhaps even in some better years.

Ian Blair, the fifth speaker prodcued data showing some areas in the basin in southern New South Wales experiencing a decline in rainfall of 180 millimetres since the early 1990s.

I get the impression this is pushing a further message about climate change or global warming - I probably would prefer spending money on growing rice than for some person to earn money travelling around the world presenting at conferences based on the assumption in this statement. Isn't that the definition of a drought and are we suggesting here the drought will NOT break at all? Even if it were to recover partially, even one a couple of good seasons can make one hell of a difference for farmers.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Harley Pearman]

A return to good rains would make a big difference. The speaker who gave the lecture is the Director of Quadraco Asia Pacific Pty Ltd and is based in Victoria. His background is farming and sustainability especially in relation to water conservation, power, labour and food production.

The issues of water allocation and use, drought, waste and its availability for the Murray Darling Basin were addressed by other speakers. In particular, the drought has forced a rethink on water use. The National Water Initiative has been established to address water needs. The Murray Darling Basin Authority should have a water plan by 2011 but dealing with over allocation and overuse is a critical issue and a challenge. Given the current drought, the Basin is in trouble but the National Water Initiative has helped to alleviate some of the issues. However the speaker Chris Davies did mention that we have no idea where we are going with our water (Murray Darling Basin) and we are in uncharted territory due to the drought. The Authority is trying to manage the drought using the best scientific knowledge but it is a challenge.

Latest SOI Trends:

Looking at the latest trends and models via the POAMA "Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia" which can be accessed via the Bureau of Meteorology website or via http://poama.bom.gov.au/ it shows:-

July 2009:-Warm body of water across the equatorial region of the Pacific stretching from South America towards Papua New Guinea in which the waters are between 0.5C and 1.5C above the norm. Warm waters still off Ecuador. The waters around Australia are at average temperatures.

August 2009:- Warm body of water across the equatorial Pacific 0.5C to 2.5C above the norm increasing in area.

September 2009:- Similar pattern to August.

October and November 2009:- Similar pattern to September.

December 2009:- Some warming of waters off Eastern Australia between Sydney and Brisbane is suggested in the order of 0.5C to 1.5C above the norm.

January 2010:- Significant warming of waters of Australia's east and west coast suggested in the order of 0.5C to 1.5C.

The trend towards an El Nino drought is still suggested but more data is required.

Looking at the latest rainfall expectations (July to September 2009) it is suggested that:-

- The whole of western New South Wales and southern New South Wales and much of Victoria only has a 40 to 45% chance of reaching average rainfall.

- Parts of western Victoria has only a 35% to 40% chance of reaching average rainfall.

While June 2009 has seen some useful rains, indications and models are suggesting drier conditions to return. Full details at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/rain_ahead.shtml

In particular when looking at the "Chances of rain - 75% Chance" July to September 2009 generated at the Bureau of Meteorology "Land and Water" site, the following is noted.

Victoria:

Northern Victoria 50 to 100 mm.
Central Victoria 100 to 200 mm.
North East Highlands 200 to 300 mm.
Gippsland 100 to 200 mm.

New South Wales:

The model suggest some inland regions will be relatively dry.

South West Slopes being the hills - 100 to 200 mm.
Southern New South Wales away from the hills - 50 to 100 mm.
Far South West - 25 to 50 mm.

The rainfall contour plot for this is attached below.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

June 2009 rainfall data for Southern NSW and Victoria (With special attention to the dry afflicting Melbourne)

June 2009 saw average rainfalls to slightly above average rainfalls occur over large areas of Northern Victoria while southern Victoria largely missed out. In particular, Melbourne has experienced it's driest 6 months on record (Bureau of Meteorology 2009) and water supplies continue to decline for this city. Rainfall deficits vary in size and scale and all but one regional centre or rural centre in the case study continues to experience a rainfall deficit.

Rainfalls for 1 January 2009 to 30 June 2009

Urban centre        Rainfall and days              Normal rainfall and days       Deficit or surplus

Albury Wodonga    198 mm on 41 days          252.9 mm on 41 days          Minus 54.7 mm
Ararat                 169.8 mm on 60 days        259.4 mm on 61 days          Minus 90 mm
Bairnsdale            128.6 mm on 55 days        303 mm on 63.2 days          Minus 175 mm
Ballarat               154.6 mm on 66 days        307 mm on 70.9 days          Minus 152.4 mm
Bendigo               124 mm on 45 days          208.9 mm on 44.3 days        Minus 84.9 mm
Casterton            211 mm on 95 days           264.4 mm on 70.7 mm         Minus 53 mm
Echuca                98.4 mm on 38 days         200.7 mm on 36.6 days        Minus 102 mm
Geelong               121.8 mm on 65 days       245.8 mm on 60.5 days        Minus 124 mm
Hamilton              173 mm on 84 days          249.1 mm on 74.8 days        Minus 76.1 mm
Horsham              154.6 mm on 45 days        187.1 mm on 39.1 days       Minus 33 mm
Kerang                89.6 mm on 30 days          170.7 mm on 31 days          Minus 81.1 mm
Melbourne            126.2 mm on 50 days       309.7 mm on 64.6 days        Minus 183.5 mm
Mt Hotham           485.4 mm on 59 days       602.5 mm on 68.4 days        Minus 117.1 mm
Mildura                91.4 mm on 32 days         126.8 mm on 29.1 days        Minus 35.4 mm
Portland              235.4 mm on 73 days        288.7 mm on 78 days          Minus 53.3 mm
Shepparton         122.4 mm on 42 days        176.5 mm on 37.8 days        Minus 54.1 mm
Wangaratta         173.4 mm on 44 days        297 mm on 46 days             Minus 123.6 mm
Warrnambool        346 mm on 83 days          273.6 mm on 78.3 days        Plus 72.4 mm

In Victoria Warrnambool is the only centre in the case study that has received above average rains for the first 6 months of 2009. All other centres are experiencing a continued rainfall deficit and a few are experiencing a significant deficit such as Bairnsdale, Echuca, Melbourne and Wangaratta. It is noted that all the centres are receiving the normal number of rainy days but the quantities that are occurring are below average.

Southern and South West New South Wales

Griffith               129 mm on 30 days            193.6 mm on 30.3 days         Minus 64 mm
Hay                   159.1 mm on 32 days         183.1 mm on 29.5 days         Minus 24 mm
Wagga Wagga     141.4 mm on 36 days         264 mm on 43.3 days            Minus 122.6 mm

The data for June 2009 is obtained from accessing the various weather stations via Weatherzone 3/7/2009.

Dams              Percentage capacity at 4 July 2009         Percentage capacity at same time 2008           

Cairn Curren     1.81%                                                4.77%
Dartmouth       21.67%                                               17.93%
Eildon Dam       13.38%                                               14.67%
Hume Dam       11.31%                                               16.5%
Lake Eppalock   5.98%                                                6.48%
Tullaroop         3.99%                                                 4.88%

Except for Dartmouth, the dams in the case study are holding less water now than at the same time in 2008.

Rain in the upper catchment of the Murray River seem to have provided some inflows into Hume Dam of recent weeks however this dam is holding less water now than at the same time in 2008.

Lake Mokoan in North East Victoria has totally dried up.

(Source Goulburn Murray Water - 5/7/2009)

Rainfall for the dams

Dam                      Rainfall 1 Jan to 30 June 2009     Rainfall 1 Jan to 30 June 2008

Cairn Curren           115.8 mm                                116.8 mm  (Generally no change)
Dartmouth             340.4 mm                                 282.4 mm (Slightly better than 2008)
Eildon                    260.7 mm                                223.2 mm (Slightly better than 2008)
Hume                    238.4 mm                                225.8 mm (Marginally better than 2008)
Lake Eppalock        127.8 mm                                 112.3 mm (Marginally better than 2008)
Tullaroop               129.6 mm                                 99.8 mm  (Slightly better than 2009)

(Source Goulburn Murray Water rainfall databases 5/7/2009).

The situation for Melbourne is serious. Melbourne Water operates several dams with the largest being Thompson which when full should hold 1,068 Gigalitres of water. As at 4 July, it was holding 174,428 megalitres or 16.3% of normal capacity. Total water capacity for Melbourne now stands at 26.1%. The dry is taking a toll on Melbourne's water supply as such:-

2005 - 52.2% capacity.
2006 - 48% capacity.
2007 - 30.7% capacity.
2008 - 29.5% capacity.
2009 - 26.1% capacity.

(Overall capacity of 1,810,500 meglitres - Currently at 473,440 megalitres)

The driest first 6 months on record for Melbourne has taken its toll on Melbourne's water supply.

(Source of data - Melbourne Water 5/7/2009).

The data provided above highlights the water crises and drought as:-

3 month drought plot - Shows Melbourne and the Dandenongs suffering "Serious" to "severe rainfall deficiency" including an area North West of Melbourne also suffering the same.

6 month drought plot - Reproduced below because it provides an excellent overview of what is occurring around Melbourne including large swathes of Southern Victoria (Generated from the Bureau of Meteorology -Water and the Land site at http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi
Severe rainfall deficiencies are affecting Melbourne including a region "Lowest on record".

9 month drought plot - Is showing "Severe rainfall deficiencies" afflicting southern Victoria with an area east and west of Melbourne experiencing "Lowest on record".

12 month drought plot - Is showing southern Victoria including Melbourne and surrounds suffering "Severe rainfall deficiencies".

It appears that enough rainfall fell across northern Victoria and southern NSW in June to eliminate the worst of the deficiencies however deficiencies still exists right across the region.

Generally June rainfall plots and anomalies for the area under review does show some short term recovery in northern areas of the state and southern New South Wales as a result of some recent rains but the south including Melbourne and region continues to experience substantial deficits.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

El Nino for 2009 highly likely

Looking at the latest updates from the POAMA models, it is now looking more likely than not that an El Nino will emerge for the second half of 2009 and continuing into 2010.

The Bureau of Meteorology has stated that if current trends continue a reversal is unlikely. In particular:-

- Waters in the central Pacific Ocean are 1C warmer than normal.
- Sub surface water temperatures are 4C warmer than normal.
- Trade winds across the Pacific have weakened and are weaker than the norm.
- Cloud near the International Date Line has recently increased.

The SOI - Southern Oscillation Index is maintained at a monthly average of Negative 2 (June 2009). The SOI model is currently showing Minus 2. There has been a recent rise but this is expected to fall again.

The POAMA Models still show continual warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean however the Ocean Models for December and January shows substantial warming of oceans to the north, east and west of Australia in the order from 0.5C to 2.5C above the average. The warming encircles much of Australia except the waters in the Southern Ocean.

The latest NINO Plume 3 POAMA Forecast is showing the warming anomalies becoming evident from July 2009 with a peak around December to January of 1C to 2.5C above the norm.

Looking at latest data and models, evidence is emerging of a new El Nino and a drier trend for eastern and southern Australia setting in with a peak around December 2009 to January 2010.

http://poama.bom.gov.au/

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

Good rainfalls help to ease the dry for July 2009

During the month of July, rainfall across Victoria has helped to ease the dry conditions but more rain is needed. In particular:-

- Better rainfalls have occurred with large areas of western Victoria reaching at least average rainfall for the month with some areas exceeding their average rainfalls.

- The highlands of north east Victoria also received good rainfalls/snowfalls for the month.

While much of Victoria saw an improvement, East Gippsland remained dry and areas just north of the state border also saw a dry July.

The drought / rainfall statements for July are:-

3 Month - "Severe deficiencies" still exist around Melbourne and the Dandenongs and east into Gippsland. The deficiencies are confined to south east Victoria.

6 Month - "Severe deficiencies" exist around Melbourne and Gippsland with a small area of inland East Gippsland experiencing rainfall as "Lowest on record".

9 Month - "Serious to Severe deficiencies" exist around Melbourne, Geelong and north west to Ballarat.

12 Month - "Severe deficiencies" exist around Melbourne, Geelong and Ballarat including an area of "Lowest on record" for east and west of Melbourne. "Serious deficiencies" also exist in southern New South Wales and areas of western Victoria and parts of East Gippsland.

The details in this post are prepared using data from:-

- Bureau of Meteorology.
- Weatherzone.
- Goulburn Murray Water.
- Melbourne Water

In particular, Melbourne's water reservoirs saw their first increase in water supply since December 2008 in which total capacity has risen by 1% from 26.1% to 27% indicating that rainfall has fallen in the upper catchments. Average rainfalls of 130 mm occurred in Melbourne's water catchment during July which is above the long term average of 107.4 mm.

While rainfall improved during July some areas still show rainfall deficits as shown in the regional centres as part of this case study.

Town / City                 Rainfall at end of July            Normal average rainfall

Albury / Wodonga         252.8 mm on 58 days            314 mm on 57 days
Ararat                        241.4 mm on 75 days            318 mm on 80 days
Bairnsdale                   151 mm on 68 days               360.5 mm on 77.2 days
Ballarat                      221.2 mm on 88 days             373.3 mm on 90.4 days
Bendigo                      191 mm on 63 days               254.9 mm on 57.5 days
Casterton                   350.6 mm on 122 days           347.9 mm on 91.2 days
Echuca                      130.4 mm on 56 days             241 mm on 48 days
Geelong                     154.6 mm on 83 days             287.3 mm on 77.8 days
Hamilton                     271.8 mm on 108 days           309.9 mm on 95.3 days
Horsham                     213.2 mm on 63 days            190.9 mm on 63.4 days
Kerang                       119.5 mm on 44 days             205.7 mm on 40.8 days
Melbourne                  165.6 mm on 62 days             355.9 mm on 79.5 days
Mt Hotham                 662.2 mm on 80 days             738.5 mm on 89 days
Mildura                      105.2 mm on 42 days             151.4 mm on 38 days
Portland                     392.2 mm on 97 days             377 mm on 97.5 days
Shepparton                 157 mm on 62 days               215.9 mm on 52.5 days
Wangaratta                 226.8 mm on 61 days            356.4 mm on 61.5 days
Warrnambool               372.4 mm on 105 days           379 mm on 108 days

New South Wales

Griffith                       152.4 mm on 39 days             223.5 mm on 39.7 days
Hay                           173.6 mm on 39 days             213.1 mm on 56.8 days
Wagga Wagga             176.4 mm on 49 days             318.4 mm on 56.8 days

One positive for the month of July is that enough rain has fallen in some areas to reduce the size of the rainfall deficits especially in areas around Horsham, Portland and Casterton. However deficits still remain over many areas of the state.

Reservoirs:

The water levels in the reservoirs are still low indicating that more rainfall is needed to replenish the dams.

Dam name                  Capacity as at 5 August 2009     Capacity as at 5 August 2008

Cairn Curran                 1.86%                                    4.90%   
Dartmouth Reservoir      22.69%                                  18.88%
Eildon Reservoir            17.2%                                    18.46%
Hume                         17.34%                                   22.16%
Lake Eppalock              5.73%                                    6.53%
Tullaroop                     4.32%                                    5.23%

The reservoirs in the case study except for that at Dartmouth Reservoir are showing lower water levels for early August 2009 than at the same time for 2008. While runoff is occurring in the upper catchments and into the dams, much more rainfall and snowmelt is required before the water situation improves.

It is concluded that there has been some short term improvement but more rainfall is required before the water situation improves for the state and for southern New South Wales.

The plots will be loaded on under a separate heading.

Harley Pearman