Topic: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season

[Jimmy Deguara]

What are the thoughts of others on this forum about the potential of tropical cyclones this season. In previous years, in fact for what seems an eternity, it seems Queensland has not weathered many tropical cyclones - well below average I would think. In fact in some areas it has lead to a lengthy drought due to failed rains usually provided by tropical cyclones themselves.

Feel free to discuss your thoughts and forecasts of tropical lows and topical cyclones, the intensity ratings and tracks topical cyclones follow. We will use a separate thread for different tropical cyclones titled by the name of the tropical cyclone.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Michael Bath]

The season has been similar to the previous several with 4 to 5 TCs in the South Indian Ocean before the new year. This season we had four with only one named system in the Australian region: Bertie-Alvin in November.

It's very much harder to predict the season ahead in the Southern Hemisphere, unlike the US North Atlantic. There does seem to be some correlation to pahses in the El Nino, with neutral conditions slightly more favoured for greater numbers of TCs.

Despite lower overall TCs in the SH in recent years, there have been a greater proportion of stronger storms.

I have no prediction for how many we can expect to see in Queensland waters 
Track maps and current information are available from here: http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/

MB

[Jeff Brislane]

I certainly hope that the Whitsundays don't get trashed by a monster cyclone this year as i'm plannig at this stage to honeymoon there in June!!!

[Geoff Thurtell]

Hi Jeff,

There would be a very low probability of your June honeymoon being affected by cyclone activity, unless there was a very late category 5 cyclone in April-May.

In the mid '80s I went to Hook Island in the Whitsundays only 3 weeks after a category 2 cyclone went through. The only inconvenience was that the hot water system still wasn't operational.  Also, a couple of years before that, I visited Fiji only a week after a Category 3 cyclone went through. It was almost as if nothing had happened. There were plenty of flattened buildings, trees and sugar cane but the locals weren't concerned at all. It was business as usual! Most people living in cyclone affected areas just pick themselves up, dust themselves off and get on with their lives.

The exception is when the more severe category 4 or monster category 5's hit but that isn't likely in the Whitsundays very late in the season.

Regards,

Geoff

[Jeff Brislane]

I thinking more along the lines of a cat 4/5 which would strip the islands bare of trees and destroy most of the beaches not to mention storm surge effects. Plus the place where looking at is like a lot of resorts with detached cabins that wouldn't even exist after a cat 4/5 cyclone with a decent storm surge. Places like Hayman island resort would be ok as they are made from re-inforced concrete.

It would take months to re-build a lot of resorts after a cat 4/5 cyclone. Look at missihippi.

Jeff

[Geoff Thurtell]

That was the point of my message. I do not think that the Whitsundays have ever seen a Cat 4/5 in recorded history. Unless this year is going to be a record breaker, you are pretty safe!

Regards,

Geoff

[Matthew Piper]

Tropical Cyclone Ada was a category 4 cyclone which hit the Whitsundays in January 1970 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Ada. It caused severe damage to all of the resorts and unfortunately claimed the lives of 14 people. As to whether a cyclone like this will hit anywhere in QLD this season is hard to tell considering the extensive run of quiet years we have been having. I guess it is only a matter of time before QLD is hit again by a Cat 4/5 cyclone and unfortunately with the dramatic increase in population since the 1970's the results could be catastrophic 

[Jimmy Deguara]

Following on from what Matt has mentioned:

In particular of concern are the coastall towns with low lying areas ie 1 - 2m above seas level. A storm surge of 5-10 metres can cause massive distruction and loss of life. Our warnings system, evacuation plans and emergency responses are quite good but let's say there was a scenario at night of a rapid instensification prior to making landfall. That in itself can disastrous.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Geoff Thurtell]

Thank you Matt. I had forgotten about Ada!     I was just relying on my memory and really should have checked more before I posted. Late night blues...
I still think that probability indicates that Jeff can safely book accomodation in the Whitsundays for June and that it will still be there when the time comes!  

Jimmy, you reminded me of the lasting impression that I have of Cairns, in particular. Cairns has a long, low lying waterfront area that is relatively densely populated. A severe storm surge would be disastrous for Cairns.

Let's think positive for Jeff's sake!

Regards,
Geoff

[Jeff Brislane]

At this stage we're looking at long island. The coast is very long though and severe cyclone near cairns would have little impact for the whitsundays bar higher than normal tides and a bit of beach erosion. You have to also remember that a couple of towns along the coast were wiped out in the 19th century by monster cyclones. I think one was Ingham, but no great loss really! 

Jeff.

[Jimmy Deguara]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Saturday, 7 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE is now current for coastal
areas between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends from Bidyadanga southwest to Mardie.

At 8:00 pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE CLARE was located
390 kilometres west of Kalumburu and
430 kilometres north of Broome and
moving west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour.

[Jeff Brislane]

GFS is showing a potential flood event for Perth in 3 days time if Clare heads due south as it is forcasting. Rainfall totals of 80+mm around perth are being shown. The BoM is also forcasting clare to reach at least Catogory 3 before landfall around Exmouth.


Jeff.

[Cooper]

Hi

Well Clare did cross the coast as Cat3 and has now weakened to Cat1. It will be interesting to see how the system develops in respect of rainfall over the region in the coming days. Boy, I would love to be over in the Pilbara now.


Darren

[Swirl]

There's a developing tropical low up NE off the coast of Townsville, close to the township of Lucinda, QLD at 18.3s 147.4e. Pressure at centre is currently 998hPa as at 0730 AEST. Clockwise winds are currently at 30 knots and BoM have put out an Ocean Wind warning and Gale wind warning for Townsville to Mackay. Three day Cyclone forecast indicates moderate potential for Cyclonic formation by Sunday.

IDQ20008
SECURITE
2 UPDATED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2140 UTC 26 January 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of  998 hectopascals located
from an observation at Myrmidon Reef centred at  262100 UTC near 18.3 south
147.4 east and slow moving. Position  Fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle and 120
nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots over the next 6
to 18 hours.

Clockwise winds at 20 to 30 knots increasing to 30 to 40 knots over the next 6
to 18 hours. 

Rough seas becoming very rough with increasing easterly and northwesterly swells

Forecast position at 270600UTC 18.5 degrees south and 148.8 degrees east with
central pressure 996 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.

Forecast position at 271800UTC 18.5 degrees south and 149.6 degrees east with
central pressure 994 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.

This tropical low is pretty much centred over Myrmidon Reef at the moment and is expected that it will move E, or ENE as it progresses.

[Swirl]

Does it look to anyone else as if there'll be three potential Cyclones forming across the top of Australia very soon! That tropical low over land on NT looks to be developing a clockwise wind pattern on satellite? Another potential formation in the Gulf of Carpenteria as well as that TL north east of Townsville..

Cheers,

Kerry.
http://data.theweather.com.au/access/imageserver.jsp?image=satellite/sat_bw_aus_anim.gif