Topic: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Kerry,

You may wish to edit the animation link to a permanent with credit of course. The link does not work for me.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Swirl]

Hi Jimmy,

You may wish to edit the animation link to a permanent with credit of course. The link does not work for me.

I haven't been able to figure out what you meant by this - I need some software to shrink the file of an animated gif, I haven't got anything on my pc to do this right now. The file I saved is 333 kb.

On another note, I'm wondering what your thoughts might be of Jim slingshotting back towards our coastline are? He looks set to go right around New Caledonia and come back. Pressure in Jim's centre is decreasing - now at 955 hPa, so he's still gaining strength.. The info of the Bureau of Meteorolgy, Weatherzone etc don't say much at all. The Ocean wind warning from Fiji has only basic data on Jims current movement and strength.

Has anyone heard news from Noumea at all?

Cheers,

Kerry.

[Michael Bath]

Hi Kerry, it does not look too encouraging based on the latest info from Fiji:

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0241 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 20.6 South
166.5 East at 310000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery
with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the
next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of
centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.

System now appears to become sheared as continues it drifting
southeast. CDO now begining to become detached from LLCC. Cyclone
lies in northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low
near Norfolk island. Outflow restricted in SE quadrant. CIMMS
indicates Jim is moving into an increased sheared environment to the
south. Dvorak analysis based on CDO yields T4.5. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0.
FT based on DT yielding T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24hrs. Interaction with the New
Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia is expected
to weaken Jim further. Global models generally agree on a southeast
track with rapid weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.8S 168.9E mov SE at 15kt with 65kt
close to the centre 
24hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 25.0S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 50kt
close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 26.3S 172.2E mov SE at 14kt with 40kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020000 UTC near 27.3S 172.1E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt
close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 310800 UTC.

[bud]

Jimmy,Looks like we might have a cyclone forming now. It will be named larry and is off Queensland.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Tropical cyclone Larry is hovering between category 3 and category 4 and headed straight for the Queensland Coast.

Check the map here:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/index.html

Michael Bath updates information on that page as well.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Tropical Cyclone Larry is making landform this morning as I type and is already causing intense damage including smashed windows, felled trees, and obviously it will create a storm surge closer to the eye. It is depicted as Cateogry 4 - severe tropical cyclones with winds around the centre at 290km/h

The graphic of depicted path according to the Bureau of Meteorlogy:



Here was the latest statement about the time of landfall:

----------------------------------IDQ20008
PAN PAN
1 CORRECTED
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2007 UTC 19 March 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Larry with central pressure 920 hectopascals centred at 191800
UTC near 17.5S 147.0 and moving westwards at 14 knots. Position good. The
cyclone is expected to move overland by 200000UTC with winds easing.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 180nm of the cyclone centre in the southern semi-circle and within 100 nm
in the northern semi-circle.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds 34/45 knots within 180 nm in the southern semicircle. Clockwise
winds 34/45 knots within 100 nm in the northern semicircle. Winds above 48 knots
within 50nm of the centre and maximum winds reaching 100 knots near the centre.
Seas very rough to phenomenal on a heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 200600 UTC near 17.6S 144.0E overland with maximum winds 40 knots 
At 201800 UTC near 18.1S 140.7E with winds below 35 knots.
 

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.  Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels.  Other ships please use either
email to [email protected] or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.
 
WEATHER BRISBANE

[Jimmy Deguara]

According to one source, Tropical Cyclone Larry has intensified to a Category 5 Tropical Cyclone with a central pressure of 920hPa. Any word on this?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

A new tropical named Tropical Cyclone Wati has been located in the Coral Sea according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography).

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Projected path of Wati as forecast by the JTWC

[Swirl]

According to one source, Tropical Cyclone Larry has intensified to a Category 5 Tropical Cyclone with a central pressure of 920hPa. Any word on this?

Looks like TC Larry became a 5 just briefly prior to landfall looking at the synoptic charts.

Cheers,

Kerry.

[Jimmy Deguara]

The devastation of this tropical cyclone is intense and widespread. The east coast of Queensland has been rearing for something like this to occur but so many seasons have produced relatively few tropical cyclones of severe category with a direct strike to the populated part of the east coast of Queensland. Current estimates are of the order of hundreds of millions of dollars. The devastation includes the banana and the sugar cane industry. The region surrounding and including Innisfail seems to be the worst affected.

I wonder whether tornadoes were spawned creating localised intense damage tracks.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Yet another tropical cyclone named Floyd has developed off to the NW in the Indian Ocean. Feel free to name in the subject of each message and discuss further the developments and characteristics of this and other tropical cyclones.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Some media coverage:

News including pictures and video clips in the following links.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=92365

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200603/s1597585.htm

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Michael Bath]

1km VIS images of Larry

0630z and 2130z 19th March ( 4.30pm 19th and 7.30am 20th QLD time)

[Michael Bath]

Larry making landfall

[Michael Bath]

Radar loop can be accessed from here:

http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tc2006.htm

regards, Michael