Topic: Tropical Cyclones 2005/2006 Southern Hemisphere season

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Michael,

Thanks for those - they are absolutely awesome images!

A thought came to my mind though about observing the weather as Tropical Cyclone Larry approached. The spiral bands would be interested to watch considering the motion is towards but the bands are curved!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Geoff Thurtell]

Michael,
I join Jimmy in thanking you for the links to those spectacular images.

Jimmy, do you mean that the cyclone is moving towards you but the spiral bands are curving away from you, if you are standing watching the cyclone approach?

One thing that I find interesting is that on the radar, after landfall of Larry, all of the heaviest rainfall was to the north of the eye along the coast between Innisfail and Cairns. Given the direction of the winds, I would have thought the opposite would have been the case. What is the explanation for this?

Geoff

[Jeff Brislane]

We now have another serious Cyclone. This time it's Tropical Cyclone Glenda off the north west coast. It's going through a period of intensification right now and is expected to be catagory 4 soon. It's track is a dangerous one for the coastal communities in that region as it looks like hugging the coast for at least the next 36 hours.

[Jimmy Deguara]

If you have some nice satellite pictures from tropical cyclone Glenda feel free to post them with reference to their source.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Michael Bath]

Here's a 1km VIS just before sunset 28th March when the cyclone was about 925hPa. It appears to have bottomed out at 910hPa overnight.

MB

Click to enlarge

[Jeff Brislane]

Glenda looks like it has lived up to a lot of it's potential strength. So far Mardie station has been side swipped by the cyclone and had a 180km/h gust recorded. The eye wall itself should at least have had gusts to 225km/h. Maybe Onslow will get some of the eyewall within the next coulpe of hours.

[Jeff Brislane]

It was funny last night as I was listening to news reports of the cyclone and they said it was strengthening as it was approaching Onslow and would go on to hit Exmouth! Exmouth wasn't even in the path on the forcast map and as for strengthening, well it was actually weakening. Unless someone had a regulation wind guage out on a ship in the path of the eyewall I believe that as it passed Mardie station it was a strong Cat 3 cyclone only. Mardie recorded a 180 km/h gust within 50 km of the eye. Onslow appears to have an almost direct hit by the eyewall and recorded only a 160km/h gust. Granted though it wasn't quite in the best sector for strong winds. Still it appears to have degraded to a Cat 2 by the time it reached onslow. I very much doubt the offical Cat 4 rating all the way to Onslow.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Google Earth and tropical cyclone Larry

http://www.googleearthhacks.com/dlf...clone-Larry.htm


Tropical cyclone Larry video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9LHT7RRp-8

More information video and pictures here:

Seven News
http://seven.com.au/news/storyinfo_images_cyclonelarry

Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/19/AR2006031900302.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/03/19/AR2006031900302_2.html

CBS news
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/20/world/main1419544.shtml


Any other links and video feel free to add more.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Tropical Cyclone Monica developed in the Gulf of Carpentaria and has intensified to a category 5 as it continues to progress west. The main populated area to possibly be affected is Darwin.

[Jeff Brislane]

Is anything left at Cape Wessel? There shouldn't be a building standing according to the alledged intensity of Monica. Again i'm not overly impressed by the measurements from this system. Either Monica was never a catagory 4 at landfall or it weakened at a phenominal pace. Maningrida aero only managed an 80knt gust and it was within sufficent distance of the eyewall in my opinion of a catagory 4 cyclone to have higher gust's than it did. I'd say it maybe managed to reach cat 4 but I personalt doubt ti ever made cat 5. The news last night nearly caused me to choke on my drink when they announced it would devestate Darwin and that it had recorded wind gusts of 350 km/h! Statements like that just prove that they really have no idea. As for the devorak method I say, dump it and start using planes like the rest of the developed world! Maybe then we'll start to see realistic wind speeds in tropical systems.

Or maybe it should have the same rating tecnique as tornadoes. If it levels to F5 intensity then it must have been F5. But if it was never measured or never destroyed anything than it was never officially rated.

[Matthew Piper]

Yeah it certainly didnt demonstrate features I would have anticipated of a category 5 at landfall and I am amazed at just how quickly it disintegrated today. The structure of the eye however as it passed Cape Wessell was by far the best I have seen of any Australian Cyclone this season and among the best you can get in the world. It left the eyes of other so called cat 5 cyclones for dead and the wind speed ratings given by JTWC were among the strongest I have ever seen them issue here or in the northern Pacific. I think at one stage they were going for sustained winds of 155 kts gusting to 195 kts  It would of been great though if we had Hurricane Hunters like the US to find out the true wind speeds and barometric pressure.

The media certainly has no idea when it comes to reporting weather events. They are so sensationalistic its not funny

[Geoff Thurtell]

There was some significant damage to infrastructure. One of my customers at work is Alcan Gove (Nhulunbuy). As of 28th April they do not have any phone or fax communication and email worked intermittently. The communication towers between Darwin and Nhulunbuy took a hammering and it may be many weeks before full reliable services are restored. My contacts at Nhulunbuy are just so relieved that they didn't cop a direct hit from Monica, even if she wasn't a Cat 5!

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

Given Michael and a few others have a serious interest in the tropical cyclone season, perhaps a summary of this season is in order given it was far more active than the past several seasons particularl in the Coral Sea and Queensland coastline.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

John,

Welcome to the forum! Excellent summary - thank you for taking the time to put it together. Very much appreciated. I did find it interesting in regards to the forecast and correlations.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara