Topic: Monsoonal activity 2006/07 season

[tohnanon]

Ahh that makes sense Thanks for the reports.We have had max gust of 47klm and av. about 25klms here and its seems to be picking up today, even though the Low has gone past or atleast around. The BOM reports are saying at the center the wind is 65klms so this would explain why it is not a cyclone yet. The baro here is bouncing 995 and 997 humidity is 100%, air and water temp are fairly equal not too much rain although last night i thought the roof was going to collapse from heavy showers. These readings i get from a direct reading from a detailed weather station that has upto 1 minute data logging. Reading
Data From yesterday
Date 01/02/2007 this is 24hrs upto 09:00:00 AM
Maximum Air Temperature 31.38 DegC
Average Air Temperature 27.89 DegC
Minimum Air Temperature 25.53 DegC
Maximum T10m 30.4 DegC
Average T10m 27.85 DegC
Minimum T10m 25.46 DegC
Maximum Relative Humidity 83 %
Average Relative Humidity 73 %
Minimum Relative Humidity 60 %
Total Solar 17.194 MJ/m
Maximum Wind Speed 22.6 Kph
Average Wind Speed 9.5 Kph
Average Wind Direction 90 Deg

from today so far at upto 9am
Maximum Air Temperature 25.01 DegC
Average Air Temperature 24.79 DegC
Minimum Air Temperature 24.53 DegC
Maximum T10m 25.28 DegC
Average T10m 25.05 DegC
Minimum T10m 24.8 DegC
Maximum Relative Humidity 100 %
Average Relative Humidity 100 %
Minimum Relative Humidity 100 %
Total Solar 0.212 MJ/m
Maximum Wind Speed 32.7 Kph
Average Wind Speed 24.2 Kph
Average Wind Direction 256 Deg

Well here a little data from GOVE

Lets see what this storm does from here

[Mike]

You gotta love the humidity levels at 100%! Total saturation! The info handy, looks like landfall Saturday perhaps but is going away from you and heading to Port McCarthur and Borroloola - perhaps the courthouse will get trashed (void of people of course), it will save me some typing!

Mike

[Mike]

Well the monsoon rains finally got their act together over the last few days (Feb4 and 5 '07) The tropical low in the Gulf has knicked a lot of our weather - still getting the odd storm but rain wise, not much.  But over the last two days the winds have changed and the monsoon is lying across the Top End.  (The wind kite surfers were out in force during the weekend surfing - unusual but they take every opportunity they can when the winds pick up!)

The low had moved east towards  Boroloola but shifted a big U-turn and went east to Mornington Island, but is now turning W/NW.  She/he has been lingering in the southern coastal edge of the Gulf coast for a few days and is very erratic in movement.  Central pressure still largely unchanged at 998 - but the fold at the bureau are really just seeing what it will do in open water thus far.

We've had pretty much 'flogging' down type rain overnight with some big storms at around 10:30-11pm last night (4th)  I was at work (again) and saw this thing sillouhetted in the night sky against the moonlight - damn there were some fine CGs - by had no time to grab the camera for any length of time. Hate that!

Should be good for storms again tonight - depending on how many breaks there are between the monsoonal showers of course!

Mike

[Mike]

Monsoon update Feb 19 2007: Decided to leave this topic in the January spot since it's all relative to the monsoon...if that's okay JD

Significant storm activity to our north has resulted in the resurgence of the monsoon trough to our north.  The increased storm activity around darwin of late is also been triggered by it also - much to my glee.  Outstanding storms last night 19Feb with 4 big storms all going wild around Darwin City, rural and out to sea.  Much the same tonight as I speak as plenty of big storms coming through from the SE. 

Our CAPE yesterday was over 3400, LI's in the -6's, SWEAT over 400 and TT's at 45.  A little lower today by the sounding but the broad trough that is covering the NT and WA is helping bring a low pressure system closer to Darwin.

 If only the sounding for yesterday had wind shear it would have made for a truly memorable night and day - last wet season we had one day with these figures and with wind shear producing a water spout in the harbour (which i missed!) All of our winds today were from the NE in all levels - guess one can't have all the right conditions!

On the radar now there's two major  lines coming through, so time to go get some photos again!  Thunder pretty regular now!

Mike

[Mike]

here's some storm action from the weekend Friday 23Feb and Satdy 24th Feb.

[Mike]

Well my last two attempts to post an update with photos didn't make it again - any ideas MB, can you see them?  Bet this one made it......>

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Mike,

Some mean looking storms in those pictures - particularly the one on the ocean! Nice pileus cap as well! (By the way I have seen several pictures on there so that you know).

Australia has been quite active over the past few weeks!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Mike]

Thanks Jimmy. Seems our little island continent has been busy weather wise! Lots of places getting some really good action.  My meteorologist mate in Oklahoma has got tornadoes forcast for Norman where he lives - he's staying home - NOT!

Mike

[Mike]

* Tropical low in the Coral Sea with probability as rated HIGH for cyclone development for Friday, Sat and Sun 2- 4 March 2007.  Bureau reported that this system is on par to become a significant system rated as Cat3 or higher.  One to watch!  Tourists Islands may well be in its path once it develops!

* Second tropical low off NT eastern coast moving very, very slow - current hpa at 996 - expected to track east slowly before turning west back over its previous course toward Darwin and into the Timor Sea to our west by Monday perhaps.  Another one to watch!

Satpics look really cool from the Brissy website.

Mike

[Mike]

Tropical low over NT....Well the weather in darwin this afternoon Frid 2 March certainly taken a turn for the worse!  The low at 9am was located 100km SE of Jabiru (270km to our south) and moving at 12kmh to the west with a central pressure of 998.  Since 12noon the low has made it's presence felt with increasingly strong winds, showers, rain, lightning flashes.

The lower level clouds are just racing through from the NE and rain bands are taking shape on observation as the low creaps past us overhead.  Skies are blue/grey with areas of medium rain, flashes of CC lightning, CGs - (there goes another one) and definately deteriorating as the afternoon progresses.....heaven!

If anyone living here who has not experienced a tropical low come cyclone wanted to know what it's like to experience an impending cyclone then this is it - albeit on a 'maturing and progressive scale'.

Just fascinates me to stand outside work and watch the rainbands and cloud bands race by towards what will become a significant system in the latter days to come.  It's like watching something unreal - definately will become wetter as the bands reach us more over the weekend.  Certainly get's my blood racing!!!! Sounding for today - beaut low level and mid level winds !!

* Another update as of 4pm NT time - we've been hammered by massive amounts of storms hidden within the dense cloud cover.  I've counted multiple CG strikes - both singular and combinations of 3 and 4 side-by-side every 3-4 seconds and no longer than 30 seconds between 'hits'.  My office has a harbour view and i'm witnessing just superb lightning strikes - just pulsing up to four times over the ocean within 100 metres of our office.  Warnings are out for locally destructive winds of 90-120kmh in the Darwin-Daly area as the low continues to cross our path and will be a cyclone by Satdy.

I have never witnessed so much lightning activity in one system - no wonder cyclones are so powerful - there's just SO much energy in these things.  If this continues - as i think it will - into the night, it will truly make for some awesome lightning photographs.

Will keep you all posted on developments of this deepening system.

I'm simply numb.

Mike

[Mike]

Another update for you's all 7:30pm Darwin time 2 March.  we have a cyclone watch extending to tip of WA coast.  The low is centred just west of oenpelli and still moving slowly at 12kmh westward.  Jabiru had 311mm rain in 24 hours - an 80 year record.  Oenpeli had 200mm today - they're flooded in.  Substantial rain this evening with no let-up.  Drove around the coastal suburbs and everything is flooded -street wise - river systems are way up and the golf driving range, well that's now a lake!

We've still got severe weather warnings out with 90kmh winds on the coast.  Hopefully will get some pics for you all to view.

If anyone has got any questions re the low, feel free to ask!

Mike.

[Mike]

Captains log 3 March 2007 - tropical low still moving to our west and intensifying.  By the time it reaches the Timor Sea this arvo 'it' will be named and a Cat1-2 by Monday.  NT is still on a watch as the low progresses westward.  Oenpelli Community is now an ocean and they've had 800mm of rain in four days!  We've experienced ongoing hard rain for the last 24 hours with a brief lull until about 2pm NT time where it's flogging down again. Darwin and suburbs received over 1000 CG strikes per hour for a duration of 3 hours Friday 2 March.

No wonder I was most upset as I had left the camera at home  - never again!

Pics below are of just one of the rain bands within the low dumping vast amounts of rain and a couple of pics of  the palms bending with the 90kmh gusts that associated the low.

Mike (soggy but happy)

[orage]

It must be amazing to witness a TC live, Mike. I have not experienced one before being a New South Welshman (although I understand we can get them this far sout). I always get exited when a TC forms, but I am particularly exited about this one because it is within radar coverage. The Wyndham radar looks very nice. You can see the rain rotating around a central point just to the west of Peppimenari, off the coast. There is also a rainband that extends to the south wast (almost following the coast). I;m sorry I wasn't able to post any radar images, as I had technical difficulties. Does anyone else have these images? I will continue to watch eagerly.

[Mike]

The low is now TC George and is off the NT coast still heading west.  Cat2 by this afternoon.  Yep, tis quite cool watching the bands flow through, most of them were fromt the NE inflow tail and quite bizzare to see lots of low level clouds streaking through with the more structured storms easing through - you can definitely see the difference in wind speeds at lower and middle levels.

 The photos don't really do the system justice as it's always raining!  The photos above were taken at Nightcliff beach and the tide was WAY out - would have been better if the tide was in - huge swells.  Our heavy rain periods will ease a tad by tomorrow (Monday) and we should see the return of storm activity associated with the remnants as we'll finally get some sunshine to heat up the place - have not seen the sun in over a week.

 I'm still in mourning for forgetting my camera on Friday previous when the low was at its most active as it strengthened over us - everyone is telling me how they got supurb shots of the CGs - (2000 strikes for the 3 hours) you think i'm not upset!!!!

Thanks to Michael Bath for posting the pics, much appreciated.

MIke

[Mike]

Here's a radar image of the line of severe storms that dumped 2000 CGs over Darwin and surrounds on Friday 2March 07. The system travelled from the NE then NW.

Am finding out from the Met office some technical details re the system, as to why it was so 'charged', what atmospheric conditions resulted in the storm being so violent etc - will keep you posted.


Mike.