Topic: Warm Autumn/ winter tipped.

[Colin Maitland]

Browsing through 9 MSN I came across this article regarding autumn and the beginning of winter,( posted below from their site), it will be of interset to keep a tab on how accurate their predictions turn out. Brisbane is cooling a little, but we have a hot weekend ahead with 31C for Saturday and Sunday (25 & 26 April 09) then back to 26 - 27C for the rest of the week. It has been a long hot summer. I was expecting a rather cold winter this year so lets see.
 
The article is titled:


{[Warm autumn, winter on the way
15:37 AEST Fri Apr 24 2009

By Cathy Alexander

Leave the doona in the cupboard - mild weather is on the way for autumn and winter.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting an Indian summer, with warm nights for almost all the country from May to July.

Balmy weather in the Indian Ocean is responsible for the winter reprieve.

Queenslanders can leave their heaters off - nights are tipped to be much warmer than average.

Only Victoria will miss out on the mild nights. Temperatures are tipped to be average or a little cooler.

When it comes to rain there's good news for struggling farmers in the country's north - the heavens are set to open.

The bureau has forecast wet weather for northern NSW, southern Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Elsewhere the rain gauges are tipped to receive about the normal amount of rain for the time of year.}]

 

I think the retailers are hoping this is wrong, for the first time in a  long time, our clothes stores in Brisbane seem to be full of proper winter clothes, I think they were caught out last year with the cold snap we had. It felt like it was one of the coldest winters that I can recall for some years.

However we do need the rain, parts of South West QLD are still drought affected, and in SEQ we have not reached 60% combined dam levels so we are technically still in a drought. We are somewhere around 59.05 % approx. So close to having the drought offically over.

So it can be good news if you hate the cold, or bad news if you like to rug up and enjoy the cold nights.

Cheers

Col

[Colin Maitland]

So far it looks as if the prediction is a little of the mark, Brisbane is just about to have its first taste of wintry nights, still very nice day time temps. Vic, SA, TAS and parts of NSW have had a wintry day with cold wind, rain and snow in the alpines.(26/04/09).

Below is BOMS forecast for Brisbane

Forecast for Monday
Fine. Moderate W/SW winds.

Precis:       Fine.                             
City:         Min 12    Max 27
Bayside:      Min 14    Max 27
UV Alert:     9:20 am to 2:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 5 [Moderate]

Tuesday       Fine, cool early.                      Min 10    Max 25
Wednesday     Fine, cool early.                      Min 10    Max 25
Thursday      Fine.                                  Min 12    Max 26
Friday        Fine                                   Min 12    Max 26
Saturday      Fine                                   Min 12    Max 25
Sunday        Fine                                   Min 13    Max 26



See what else happens.

[Richary]

Yes, going to be going down to 5 here in western Sydney by midweek. A nice wintry blast! Where's global warming when we need it :-)

[Peter J]

In VIC, it is tipped to be below-average rainfall, but if the recent cold snap in play is anything to go by, then I'm going to be the skeptic in this one - It WILL be colder here. Early cold snaps usually bring bitter winters here - trends noted.

Big Pete

[Colin Maitland]

From latest news reports they are expected an exceptional snow season this year. Reports are saying that there is between 30 & 40 cm of snow cover on some resorts in VIC and NSW, six weeks prior to the official season. More snow is predicted to fall over the next 3 - 4 days in VIC, TAS and NSW.

I think you are in for a cold winter, like you were saying Big Pete. And I still think the same goes for NSW, SA & south east QLD.

Looking at the Brisbane BOM stats for Tuesday 28th of April 09, the Airport had a minumin of 8.2 C at 5.39 am this morning,
West of Brisbane, Amberley had 4.5C at 6.13 am and Oakey 2.5C at 6.21am
and north at Maroochydore, 8.5C at 5.54am.

I think that is the ironic or cruel twist in global warming, according to many experts it causes many parts of the world to freeze, NT is looking good !

[Jimmy Deguara]

Col wrote:

Browsing through 9 MSN I came across this article regarding autumn and the beginning of winter

It crossed my mind that a warmer winter is on the way. Cold outbreaks during the April period even this late in April is definitely unseasonal. I recall Michael Scollay gave a presentation and I discussed this with him it correlates quite well even as a rule of thumb. What happens in reality is another matter.

From latest news reports they are expected an exceptional snow season this year. Reports are saying that there is between 30 & 40 cm of snow cover on some resorts in VIC and NSW, six weeks prior to the official season. More snow is predicted to fall over the next 3 - 4 days in VIC, TAS and NSW.

I think you are in for a cold winter, like you were saying Big Pete.

Not necessarily so. With early snowfall years, I have always noted from years back that the media jump onto the paddy wagon (possibly supported by the links to the ski field operators). When making this assumption about a bumper season, the media have been wrong almost all the time!

Of course, for the sake of the economy, let's hope I, and the Bureau of Meteorology are wrong this time around. I would hate yet another industry (ski industry) to suffer in this recession!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Richary]

I reckon the people in Charlotte Pass don't believe it. -13.0 overnight, a new Australian record for April.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Richary,

I will hold you word on that:) Let's see what transpires. Yes it si a cold April outbreak hence my reasoning that historically, most early cold outbreaks and early massive dumps of snow lead to poor snow seasons.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Colin Maitland]

Melbourne recorded the coldest morning in April since 1957. The temps were just below 3C in the city with areas to the east dropping to -2.7C at Coldstream.
Mt Hotham has a record April low of -8.2 C yesterday morning.

Mt Buller is going to be open to skiers on the weekend, this being the earliest start to a season in its 45 year history.
 

[Richary]

Hi Jimmy

The comment on Charlotte Pass was more to do with the thread title about a warm autumn/winter than your comments on the snow season :-) Just unfortunate it followed your post. Should have done a quote to make it clearer.

I haven't really followed snowfall patterns but do seem to recall that these bumper starts that have everybody down there pleased often fizzle out.

That said, I hope we get some snowfalls on weekends either out near Oberon or Barrington Tops that I can go 4WDing and get some pics.

Richard

[Colin Maitland]

So far to date in QLD, we have had relatively cool nights, a little lower than average, the dooner was not put away as suggested by the above posted article Warm Autumn/ Winter tipped. We have had the most  beautiful clear sunny days, with  the exception of I think, Wednesday as announced as having close to record low maximums for this time of year  in some of QLD, Thus far we have not had the real rain as predicted.

But how this for a mixed bag of weather for Brisbane for next week as from BOM

Forecast for Friday
Fine.                             

Precis:       Fine.                             
City:         Min 11    Max 25
Bayside:      Min 10    Max 25

Saturday      Fine.                                  Min 11    Max 27
Sunday        Fine.                                  Min 12    Max 25
Monday        Shower or two.                         Min 14    Max 24
Tuesday       Few showers.                           Min 15    Max 23
Wednesday     Cloudy, showers.                       Min 17    Max 21

This should brew a few good flus up.

Reading through the snow forecast for Vic and NSW Alpine areas and the word from BOM for these areas is for snow over the next few days from a cold front moving in from over Bass Strait.   (http://www.google.com.au/imgres?imgurl=http://weather.ski.com.au/data/sat_aus_latest.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.ski.com.au/weather/&h=576&w=720&sz=72&tbnid=XIDocjKiu9Y8hM::&tbnh=112&tbnw=140&prev=/images%3Fq%3DAUS%2Bsat%2BPIC&hl=en&usg=__wK1DFmdyrs0teihX5S8Z1hVQ130=&sa=X&oi=image_result&resnum=1&ct=image&cd=1)

[Jimmy Deguara]

Coltan,

My reference is for a warmer than average winter - yes the autumn is colder than others I have experienced which leads me even more to an expectation of above average temperatures during the winter months and perhaps some good rainfall events.

I guess time will tell.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Colin Maitland]

I was mainly referring to the reversal of Brisbane temps over the next few nights, they are going to warm up from last nights 8.2C at the airport to 17C which is well above average, and as the nights are warming, the days are cooling down from 27C (on Saturday) to 21C, which suggest the possibility of good cloud cover and maybe rain.

I was hoping for a cold winter to wipe out the flu's, (if that is not a old wives tale), but I know, as Jimmy has stated and from previous experience myself and that of history, cold autumns, usually results in warmer winters. I used to notice that at the start of the State of Origin series, Brisbane would be 5C and Sydney around 13C for opening game. Used to think, great cold winter, but it never eventuated. 

I reckon our weather pattern seems to be out of kilter by about a month or so up here in QLD, we had a late start to spring with September/October still pretty cool, (usually September you throw your jumper away and start swimming again,) and then summer just dragged on until about the last week in April before it started to cool down.

Usually it seems whatever the computers forecast, you go the opposite and you get it right, ( just kidding)
   
Yes only time will tell, and I am not placing any bets for anyone.

Cheers all

Colin

PS late edit
Just looking for articles about flu's due to having one, and came across this one regarding SEQ weather from the Courier Mail



By Leanne Edmistone

May 15, 2009 07:42am

BRISBANE has woken to its coldest day of the year so far with temperatures about 4 degrees below average including a low of 1.8 degree at Amberley at 6.20am.

At the same time, it was 7.4C at Coolangatta, 8.2C at Brisbane Airport and 10.4C in the city.

    More weather details

Applethorpe was down to -2.2C, Warwick -0.9C, Oakey 0.7C, Kingaroy 1.4C and Gatton 4C.

Bureau of Meterology senior forecaster Geoff Doueal said a high pressure system pushing dry air across southern Queensland was responsible for the cool change.

How cold was it at your plcae this morning?

"Dry air and clear skies and light winds are all a recipe for having cool nights,'' Mr Doueal said.

But he said the temperatures were by no means the coolest ever recorded: on May 31, 2006, Brisbane Airport recorded just 3C, the city 5C and Ipswich -3.3C.

Mr Doueal said another cold morning could be expected tomorrow before starting to warm up slightly, as showers developed on Monday and Tuesday.

This year's previous coldest mornings was on April 17, when a complex low system over the Coral and Tasman seas sent the mercury between 2C and 5C below average.

On that Friday, Brisbane recorded a low of 15.6C at 5.55am, Amberley 11.3C at 6.02am and Gatton hit 13C at 6am. Coolangatta had a low of 14.8C at 5.04am.

The lowest temperatures in southeast Queensland were at Applethorpe, in the Granite Belt, with 6.5C at 6am and Warwick with 7.7C at 6am.

Temperatures at 6.05am this morning:
Brisbane 10.4C
Brisbane Airport 8.7C
Amberley 2.8C
Cooloongatta 7.9C
Gatton 4C
Jimna 3.6C
Kingaroy 1.4C
Oakey 0.7C
Redcliffe 10.9C
Warwick -0.9C
Toowoomba 9.1C
Cunnamulla 6.5C
Injune 3.7C
Roma 3.9C
Applethorpe -2.2C
Dalby 2.3C
Goondiwindi 4C
Miles 3C



 

[Colin Maitland]

As regards the forecast from the bureau in the Article from 9msn I posted late in April, I would like to say that, at almost the half way mark, the prediction of



(When it comes to rain there's good news for struggling farmers in the country's north - the heavens are set to open.

The bureau has forecast wet weather for northern NSW, southern Queensland and the Northern Territory.

Elsewhere the rain gauges are tipped to receive about the normal amount of rain for the time of year.}]





BOM has truly been 100% accurate for NE NSW and QLD with the deluge, flooding and storm damage we have received this week (19/05 - 23/05/09).

Unfortunately, the prediction of warm nights in Brisbane has not lived up to the expectation, we have had just below average Mins. with the exception of a couple of nights, due to the rain and cloud cover, being 15-16C. Next week is set to sit around the 10-11C which is just below average for our area at this time of year.  

It seems to be a real mixed bag of weather around Australia right now.

Lets see how the end of May and June pan out. Just a pity a little more rain does not make its way down to Vic.


 

[Colin Maitland]

Today, Saturday 6th June, is thew official opening of the Australian ski season. Although at this stage there is little snow cover, forecasters are predicting  cold and wet conditions for most of NSW, with snow developing on the alps from late on Saturday afternoon.

BOM duty forecaster Dimitri Danchuk said,  they are expecting snow to develop on the peaks from late Saturday and extending down to 1,300 metres on Sunday," As reported on 9NSM.

Hopefully a good season for them, and hopefully some good snow chasing can be had by those who enjoy doing so. I am looking forward once again to tracking some snow for the girls.  

As for Brisbane, we are in for cold nights into the single figures with mild days of 19 - 21C. We didn't recieve the warm nights like it was predicted in April by the BOM in the opening post of this thread.

Plenty of rain and over cast days.

Cheers

Col.

(Edit JD: Have to eliminate any non-permanent links)