Topic: Slow Moving Low Pressure System 13-20th May 2007

[Jeff Brislane]

After a pretty boring Autumn it looks like we are in for a serious change in the weather as a slow moving and large stacked low pressure system crosses the south east of Australia over the next several days. There are already storms firing across South Australia, Victoria and Western NSW.

For now the low is stationary but the models are showing a deep low coming up behind this system which will cause this stacked low to eject across the S/E around Thursday to Satuday.

Keep an eye on this sytem for potential drought breaking rainfalls across Eastern NSW and even SE Qld.

Jeff.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Jeff,

Given I have little time to check, is there chance of snow as well? I hope it really does fill the various catchments. It was forecast that May would be the month when serious rainfall would occur.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jeff Brislane]

Yes there is a chance of snow in the following system as very cold 500mb air is forcast to cross late Saturday onwards. It's not quite as good looking as yesterday but GFS is still forcasting 40mm+ over a very large area of eastern NSW and SE Qld. Problem is that it might cross too quickly and only provide one day of rain. Two days with totals to 60mm+ would be much better.

[Michael Bath]

Latest GFS and TWC Mesocast both have some very substantial falls across NSW - latest +96 hour forecasts:

[Robert1984]

It seems what the South East of South Australia missed out on last night is hitting tonight cause i just got back from an awesome storm chase even though the lightning wasnt picture perfect it still lit up the sky

i got this message on my pager

SHQ: REG 3 & 5 WX: SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR 15/05/07, ISSUED FOR UPPER SOUTH EAST, LOWER SOUTH EAST & PART OF MURRAYLANDS. HIGH WIND GUSTS, T/STORMS, HAIL, FLASH FLOODING MAY BE EXPECTED. > 15/05/2007 19:19:24

By the looks of this forecast its a slow moving storm

[Jeff Brislane]

The models for this event have been really teasing so far as to where good rain will fall and how much of it will come about. The latest overall indicators seem to show that SE Qld's chances have reduced substantially, Central N.S.W. has stayed the same but now it's looking like NE and Central Tasmania might get some significant falls from either this low or the following system which would be awesome for them. I was down in Tassie in March and the drought there was absolutely terrible. The worst they've ever seen, so I'm hoping that the Laps model comes through with the positioning of the low just off the Tasman coast of victoria which would see good rainfall all round.

Either way, last night Mt William scored 50mm and the Wimmera/Western areas of Victoria had follow up rain of around 10 to 20mm which is good for them as well. It's sad with so many districts in Drought. You want everyone to get rain but you know some will miss out.

Jeff.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Jeff,

Not to deviate off topic here but everywhere we have travelled across the United States, even here in extreme NW Nebraska it is green throughout. Amazing amounts of rain and snow had fallen.

Australia just seems unable to shake off the drought with consistent rainfall - it is a shame.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Michael Bath]

Have even managed an STW this arvo with large hail reported - a couple of the cells look quite impressive on VIS


For people in parts of the
  Upper Western and
  Lower Western Forecast Districts.

  Issued at 3:34 PM Wednesday, 16 May 2007.

  Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall in the warning area over the next several hours.

  Major locations within the warning area include Tibooburra, Wilcannia, White Cliffs, Broken Hill, Wentworth and Menindee.
  Report of golf ball-sized hail from Pooncarie.

[Jeff Brislane]

Michael,

Some of those storms looked really impressive on the sat pic with really long and rapidly growing anvils. I think you could be in for a good chance of seeing some severe storms if not even a supercell or two friday afternoon! The forcast looks pretty good tomorrow and friday for severe storms with a really strong jet, plenty of moisture and the rapid destabilization provided as this low winds up again as it crosses N.S.W relatively rapidly.

Jimmy, did you know though that Georgia and Florida and South Carolina are all in a severe drought right now and they are still being plauged by severe fires so it's not all roses in the U.S.A. But your right about tornado alley.

On another note the system following this low on Sun- Tue according to the current GFS model looks like bringing a significant cold pool across the ranges as far north at the Blue Mountains with enough moisture and 850 temps dropping to -4 over the Alps and -2 over the Central tablelands on the 21st. I'll be in Wentworth Falls for my aniversary that night so bring on the snow! After the supercells of course ;-)!

Jeff.

[Mike]

Howdy,

Anyone got any pics of storms from Adelaide, Mildura or anywhere in NSW of late considering the activity?   Certainly some nice cells through Mildura yesterday and sat pics showed two large cells with nice overshoots.  Lightning tracker was glowing - so hopefully someone got some shots!

Mike

[David Brodrick]

There was 94mm at the CSIRO radio telescope in the Warrumbungles near Coonabarabran from 10pm yesterday to 11am this morning! That's the highest total I've seen anywhere from the event.

[Mike]

There's still some decent moisture feeding in from tropical regions way out to the NW of WA for NSW.  It was likely that some of that might converge with one of those cold fronts moving through the southern coastal regions.  The forcasts are good for more decent falls where they are needed in the coming weeks - albeit some places have missed out on this system.

From the satpics the system certainly was a blessing to those primary producers who desperately need it. 

Mike

[Robert1984]

The chase i went on tuesday night started around 7-7:30pm and ended at 8:00pm once the storm got too close for comfort but man was it exciting  i went halfway to Penola then turned around and went almost the whole way to Millicent but got stopped at Magna road cause of the storm getting too close for safety

Its a real shame cause there isnt any local chasers in my area except for Naracoorte & Mundulla but those guys are too far away to keep in contact with on the UHF  plus im the only storm spotter in the Lower South East who is active

[Mike]

Bad luck re no other chasers, Robert.  Perhaps you could hunt around for someone who's keen to assist you in chasing, much safer if there's two of you anyway.  If you've got any pics I'm sure we'd all like to view them.

Mike

[Robert1984]

I havent got the right kinda digital camera for picture taking Mike plus lightning is real quick so its super hard to take pictures although chasing the storm itself is exciting enough for me 

The good news is that myself and a mate from Hamley Bridge have started a yahoo group called South Australia Storm Chasers in hopes of getting a couple of Storm Chasing divisions started up

Im Region 5 Storm Chasing coordinator and he's Region 2 Storm Chasing coordinator to avoid confusion we have used the Country Fire Service region numbers cause it symbolises which parts of South Australia were in charge of

For everyone who is interested of looking at our group this is the link   http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/S_A_S_C/