Topic: Possible record breaking heat over the South East : 15-17 August 2009

[Colin Maitland]

If all forecast are correct and the weather pattern remains as par, the South East of Australia will probably break some long standing records for heat in August.

Brett Dutschke reports on WZ News that "Alice Springs is amidst a heatwave which hasn't been experienced in the town in 63 years. A six-day heatwave, reaching at least 30 degrees each day, has not happened this early in the 'warming' season since 1946.

He then stated " This Saturday Adelaide may reach 25 degrees. If it does, it will be the first time this early in the 'warming' season in 21 years, when it got to 25.6 on the 15th of August. The record is 26.6 degrees on July 29 1975.

This Sunday, if Sydney exceeds 27.4 degrees, it will be its warmest day this early in the season in 63 years. The warmest day this early in the season is 28.2 on August 12th 1946.

Brisbane will have its warmest day this early in the season in 63 years if it exceeds 28.5. On August 14th 1946 Brisbane baked in 32.8-degree heat.

I know personally from living in Brisbane, the last 3 weeks has been like early spring, winter has nearly all but disappeared except for the cool nights of 8 to 10C

It is nice to have the warmer weather, but if it is a taste of things to come, namely a hot dry summer, it may not be that pleasant especially in regards to firestorms. An article I read somewhere lately has put NSW residents on alert to be fire vigilant and to clear their properties of unnecessary vegetation etc.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Coltan,

Yes indications are that the season seems to be in a warming trend (not good for the ski fields:))

I do recall in a few Augusts over the years when temperatures by the end of August have reached significant levels. We'll see how this goes - no frosts have occurred over the past week or so.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Peter J]

I think it is strange how these temps are occurring before spring even arrives. But the Melbourne area still seems to be bucking the trend. I think we have a forecast of 21C in the next few days, but there has been more rain this month than in previous months. And we do dive back into the mid-teens pretty quickly, especially with cold fronts. I think you'll also find Tasmania is also bucking this trend as well, as they have had some record winter rains this year - with plenty of flooding as well. And their temps have not climbed above the mid-teens all winter so far.

Big Pete

[DanTheMan]

Brisbane will have its warmest day this early in the season in 63 years if it exceeds 28.5[/b][/i]

28.5 in 63 years? 1st of August last year was 28.7
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/200808/html/IDCJDW4019.200808.shtml

[Colin Maitland]

No, not good for snow fields Jimmy:) ( you did call it, Let's see what transpires. Yes it is a cold April outbreak hence my reasoning that historically, most early cold outbreaks and early massive dumps of snow lead to poor snow seasons.)   NSW alpines have highs of 8C which is pretty warm and Vic has 5-6C and sunny which usually turns the snow to slush and throw in a bit of rain on top as predicted and it its not much fun. They have a few days of snow coming,but only 2-5cm.  
 
Checking those figures for Brisbane of 28.5C in 63 years, it does appear that 28.7 last year would have broken that record, WZ may have got those figures wrong, as DanTheMan pointed out. But 29C will set new one of second highest temp since the 32.8 C in 1946.

Cheers

Col

 

[teckert]

Adelaide's forecast is now for 27C tomorrow, 11C above average.
This wont be an August record however as 2 years ago it did reach 30C, although that was on the last day of the month....

[Harley Pearman]

Maximum temperatures are forecast at 28 Celsius for Sydney and 29 Celsius for Western Sydney for 16 August 09. If the temperatures reach this level, this will be well above the averages for the month. The maximum average temperatures for August for the following localities around Sydney (From Weatherzone long term climatology data) are:-

Campbelltown 19C.
Parramatta 19C.
Penrith 19.7C (It appears that it reached a top of 29.7C in Penrith on 27 August 2004).
Prospect 18.6C.
Sydney 17.8C.

It should be pointed out that a temperature of 31.3 degrees Celsius occurred on August 26 1995 in Sydney which I understand was one of the driest August ever for the city. Lets see what happens. I do expect it to be dry, warm but windy although with a cool change approaching by the evening.

Harley Pearman

[Colin Maitland]

Quoting myself, I wrote that WZ news stated " This Saturday Adelaide may reach 25 degrees. If it does, it will be the first time this early in the 'warming' season in 21 years, when it got to 25.6 on the 15th of August. The record is 26.6 degrees on July 29 1975.

Congratulations Adelaide you have broken the record At 02:37pm when you reached a top of 26.7C according to BOM. I know teckert stated that the hottest was 30c at the end of August but I think the "early warming season ends around mid August"

It is Sydney turn tomorrow, Your forecast from BOM for Sunday 16/08/09 is
City:         Min:  10 Max:  28   Parramatta: Min:   7 Max:  28
Terrey Hills: Min:   8 Max:  26   Penrith:    Min:   5 Max:  29
Liverpool:    Min:   4 Max:  28   Richmond:   Min:   4 Max:  29

Sydney's record stands to beat is , quoting WZ again  This Sunday, if Sydney exceeds 27.4 degrees, it will be its warmest day this early in the season in 63 years. The warmest day this early in the season is 28.2 on August 12th 1946.

Brisbane turn is Monday with  a high of 29C forecasted but we have to break 32.8C. If there is any slightest accuracy in the 7 day, which we know what the answer is 99% of the time, we have a predictted 31C for Saturday 22/08/09 but I falls after mid August.

Cheers
Col
 

[Harley Pearman]

Maximum temperatures for Sydney 16/8/2009

Looking at the maximum temperatures for Sydney for 16/8/2009 from BOM official weather station sites, it appears that maximum temperatures failed to reach the expected top of 28 and 29 degrees Celsius. However it was still warm across the city but not as warm as expected. Looking at conditions for Sydney for the day maximum temperatures were:-

Bankstown 25.9C
Campbelltown 24.8C
Canterbury 25.5C
Penrith 26.9C
Richmond 26.6C
Sydney Observatory Hill 25.7C
Terrey Hills 23.6C

These are still well above the average for August.

I had my portable weather station with me being an Oregon Scientific wireless station Model BAR916HG and it was only registering a top of 25.2 to 25.6C between 2.50 pm and 3.30 pm at Bella Vista which is generally within or close to the range of that observed at official stations across Sydney during the warmest part of the day.


Harley Pearman

[Shaun Galman]

Hi all,
As I mentioned over in the storm thread for this date: we had a top today of 34.2c at 2:30pm here at Lightning Ridge. It reached 30c by 11am. I saw the reading for Bourke was also 34c on the BoM site (and weather report on the ABC news) A few strong Northerly winds really drove this heat today but looks to be a cooler change on the way with this current trough on approach as I type. It's creating quite a few storms across NSW currently.

Cheers,
Shauno

[Richary]

Had to go to Adelaide for work on Friday, then stayed the weekend as some friends were getting together for a birthday party on Saturday night, so got to catch up with a lot of people I haven't seen for a couple of years.

Yesterday, 26.7 maximum. A bit windy during the evening but OK. A brief storm front came through about 1am with lightning, looking at the radar it was moving about 20km/10 minutes so about 120 kph speed for the clouds (though the ground wind speeds weren't anything like that). Did see at least one fallen tree today though.

Today was cold and windy, about 15 when I left early afternoon. To get back to Sydney and nice and warm again.

Though from my time in Adelaide I know it does that. Slowly builds up over a week or two then crashes 10 degrees, then starts the cycle again. Summer or winter, same pattern. Just the range varies!

[Steven]

It warmed up quickly here too. A low of 8 and by 11am it was already 23, topping out at 25 in the afternoon.

I find the warmth unusual and I think the change in SOI in the shifting of climatic patterns at the moment. Probably coincides with a long-range forecaster's comments about what we ought to expect come summer and I believe he/she was right.

What effect a possible dry summer has on storms remains to be seen, but I think history has already been an excellent indicator, judging from previous years (when I was too young to remember).

So yes, un-seasonal but bring it on. I like the warmth.

[Colin Maitland]

Part of Brett Dutschke latest report on WZ news states :

Alice Springs has had its longest run of 30-degree days in 68 years of August records, a total of seven. A cooler change moved through on Sunday afternoon. Monday's maximum will be about average, 23.

Further east, Cunnamulla in the Queensland Maranoa, broke a 102 year August record on Sunday by reaching 34 degrees, 13 above average. Elsewhere in southern Queensland, Thargomindah and St George also broke records a little over a decade old by peaking at 35 and 33 degrees respectively.

In NSW on Sunday, Lightning Ridge, Bourke and Walgett and Bega all broke August records which were at least 10 years old.


Pretty warm in Brisbane already. Everything is feeling like spring and I think some parts of mother nature has been tricked as well. The grass is dead after getting to look like a lawn once again (after all the rain we had.) So I supose on the bright side, it looking like us "men" dont have to mow the lawn much this summer again, last summer was the most I have had to mow in about 4 years.   

Col

[Steven]

Check out Brisbane's forecast:

Wednesday     Fine                                   Min 12    Max 22
Thursday      Fine                                   Min 12    Max 24
Friday        Fine                                   Min 14    Max 28
Saturday      Fine                                   Min 16    Max 30
Sunday        Fine                                   Min 16    Max 29
Monday        Fine.                                  Min 16    Max 34


That can't be right. 34? Never heard such a thing in August. I reckon it's a typo.

[Colin Maitland]

Like me you may never have had much faith in 7 day forecast, they change 3 times each day.  John Allen gave me some good stats regarding 7 day forecasts, he said :

Accuracy (skill) for current models at days out is something like:
96% 1 day, 87% 2 days, 75% 3 days, 62% 4 days, 49% 5 days etc etc (approximate values from memory).

So you could imagine the % by day 7.

The 4:45pm update from BOM is

Wednesday     Fine                                   Min 12    Max 22
Thursday      Fine                                   Min 12    Max 24
Friday        Fine                                   Min 14    Max 28
Saturday      Fine                                   Min 16    Max 30
Sunday        Fine                                   Min 16    Max 29
Monday        Fine                                   Min 14    Max 28

We never quite got to the predicted 29C today, we topped with 27.8C at 1:12pm. Beautiful day, so in summary some records broke and others stayed. But it has been well above average.