Topic: Darwin Storm events 2007/2008

[Jimmy Deguara]

Adrian,

That is a nice shelf cloud with some striations - and daytime bolts are not always as easy to achieve. More action than we have had in eastern Australia of late.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Adrian]

Jimmy - we certainly get more than our fair share !

Although it always seems more active when I am out of town

Cheers,
Adrian

[Adrian]

28 Jan 2008

Another good day for some daylight CG shots, storm cell moved through the city pretty quick and I managed to capture a few shots before the rain set in. Great amounts of thunder, with some CG's a little close - decided to sit it out in the car.  Not sure what the thinking of the guy in boat was .... as most were coming in, but this chap decided he was going to continue out.

enjoy,
.adrian

[Mike]

Much to the same as Adrian but from different areas. Snapped some irridesence from pileus the other day whilst visiting some NSW chasers here for a weekend.

Brilliant fire red sunset storm



Falling precip from a weak cell




full blown storm with pileus irridesence at the time - a first for me to see wonderful colours!



storm over to the west yesterday



And a shot of some multicells over my area last week as I snapped them from the city.  photo sort of does not do it justice, but the storms eventually came into the city with some massive bolts.  One work mate commented to me whilst on a break that he witnessed one strike exhibiting plasma breakup as it dissipated - they really shouldn't tell me those things when I can't photograph them.



The monsoon trough is above us at the moment, it is slowly strengthening and it will be about a fortnight until it comes again, all this storm activity is caused by a trough through WA and NT and the monsoon.  A lot of storms are down the track at Timber Creek - a bit far to drive for an hours lightning, but Katherine, Adelaide River and Victoria River Downs to our SE are having a field day with storms.  Will def take a drive down that way this weekend.  If the lightning won't come to me, i'll go to it.

My visiting NSW chasers from Woolongong were gobsmacked by the structure of some of the storms.   Hector really impressed with 3 large storms formed and were just huge.  If they were in NSW they said they'd swear they were supercells! 
Have attached three more pics - sorry to the mods for not linking them to the website for ease, but time running out and wanted to post them before i nodded off.

Mike

[Jimmy Deguara]

Mike,

That is a great example of irridesence and often depending on the position of the sun difficult to achieve. Looks as though the pattern has turned to near nocturnal coastal storms?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Mike]

Nocturnal storms have been far inland and pretty short lived.  Storms about at the moment for the third day running (1:30pm) which last till around 4pm and then there's not much happening until things settle down and any cells inland are usually visible from the city. Unfortunately there's not a lot moving through the city areas at night.  Yesterday's skies were totally covered with spent anvil wash, visible anvils through gaps, wide explosive CB towers in most compass points - a mirror image of yesterday afternoon. 

As for the irredesence JD, sure was a treat to watch it.  If i'd been home I would have missed it and was just at the right place.  The pressure waves were actually layering and changing colour as we watched the cloud cap push it aloft.  I've never seen it in six years living here, not uncommon to get pileus, but to get it at the right angle with the sun, mmm special.

Plenty of CG activity this afternoon, some close flangs home here and tried to capture some of them but my daytime luck is really dismal at the best and very disheartening watching them and not able to photograph

Much the same for the weeks to follow - even a weak monsoon activates this type of storm frequency, it has begun its strengthening stage as I mentioned so they'll be even more prevelant - get's almost dreary and takes the excitement out of it!  (did I really say that?!)



Mike

[Mike]

29 January 2008

Major convection this afternoon.  Some of the best structured storms I've seen in a long time.  There were large cells side by side with billowing convection surround huge updraughts and anvils.  By nightfall they had gone, but a few cells inland close enough to the harbour spat out some big strikes and crawlers.





and some lightning to top it all off!

[Adrian]

29 Jan 2008

Mike,

Not sure if this kicked back around but got these shots early in the evening,  it was well and truly under way by the time I had settled at the wharf to take some shots at about 2130, and it kicked on till about 2200 from memory.  Lots of good crawlers and CG's have posted two of the better ones that I caught below.

Have been having a bit of camera trouble so probably won't be posting any shots for a week or so until I get it back...... hopefully fixed

catch you tomorrow.

cheers,
.adrian

[Mike]

Hi Adrian, yeah the storms were active well before my 7:30pm dinner break and saw plenty of CGs whilst quickly arriving at the Deckchair lawn area for some shots.  Lasted well past 8:30, but had to return to work - blast it!  I was thinking of the wharf but carparking a pain of late.

* The MJO is apparently having a nasty affect in the Indian Ocean storm wise - ie getting angry!  It's due to return to darwin two weeks into Feb. BoM aren't too worried about cyclones in Feb.  March is the worry period as stats show the cyclones are a commonality in March for the NT.  They have seen increasing storm activity of late in the Indian Ocean, moreso than last week.  This is a strong indication to them that the monsoon will be highly active come Feb for us.

I've never seen such large convective storms at one time around Darwin.  They are just massive, especially rural areas.  Hector was so expansive today that mammatus covered the city area!  I've got three days off come Friday and I'm definately going out rural to get these big storms.  From the photos i've posted on the structure, add the number of storms by say 10+ visible in a 360 radius and take your pick which way you want to drive.

Mike

[Mike]

 
Two large cells converged across my area about 50 minutes ago.  Gusty winds with heavy precip accompanied it.  Strong enough to knock the poor green tree frogs off the palms in my backyard.  My daughter and I counted around 16 CG strikes in our area alone - several of which were close enough to give that wonderful whip cracking sound when CG's are close and rattle the windows!.  A fair amount of rain came from this storm which lasted a good 45 minutes!  There were several cells further east lining up also in the rural area.  Had to chuckle a bit when the weather monitor said 'showers about' then 'thunder' and then 'sunshine' within 30 minutes even though it was flogging down!

The radar image below is current.  The large cell that came through has dissipated, but the second wave is coming by the looks o it.  Probably about 20 minutes away if it keeps coming.


Mike

[Mike]

Monsoon No 2 update. Feb 6 2008

BoM advice is that whilst the monsoon is 'inactive' at the present time as from Friday things should really start to pick up.  Forecast models from Friday onwards show large increase in storm activity with a strong NW flow from Indonesia and abroad - (that's been the trend of late anyway!).  Storms have shifted erratically over the last three days steering initially from the East then NE and now they're coming in from the NW - a good indicator of moisture flows from the trough.

Excerpt from the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) homepage says this: 'The MJO is now located over western Indonesia - Phase 4.  The monsoon should be reactivated in the north in a few days by the passage of the MJO. The chance of a TC to the N- NW of Australia has increased.'

Of late the storms have been the deep convective type.  They are firing up as early as mid morning which is not the usual scenario in non-monsoon phases, so this is another positive reflection on the pattern changing once more.  Storms still aren't as frequent at night though, a lot of the late afternoon storm cloud is resisting moving away due to poor winds in the uppers and weak steering knots to clear the muck out.



I noticed on the charts a cyclone way out to the west of WA but another low closer to the WA coast.  Forecasts for Saturday have this low at cyclone pressure at 998 and moving with the monsoon flow pushing it further toward WA.  Might be one to watch.

Mike

[Peter J]

Mike

You know that I have been keeping up with the odd tid-bit of info re: NT and WA cyclones of late, as I do have a bit of an interest there. I also have heard reports that a monsoon/tropical low is forcast to deepen near WA's NW sometime over the weekend. The BoM had thought that a cyclone may develop sometime over the weekend, also weatherzone.com.au on their synoptic charts had the same prediction. Do you think there the climate is now right tp produce a fairly strong cyclone now, or will we have to wait until very late in the season to get one?

Big Pete
(p.s. great pics of the storms in Darwin - keep them coming!. Haven't seen good storms here down south for a while, but there is a possibility of some over the next couple of months here - as long as some good rains come too!)

[Mike]

Monsoon is set to arrive Saturday here with monsoonal showers forecast - yuk.  Blasted wet weather! 

Re cyclone:  It will really depend on what happens in the next three days.  Although the models show it forming but much is reliant on circulation and what environment it falls into.  Sea temps are well up - around 30C at last glance - which is just perfect for formation.  The wind profiles and continuing storm formation around the low will decide it.

I would not be surprised if it did form over the weekend. It's sitting in a nice fuel environment and as with most watching it, we'll have to keep an eye on the winds at all levels to see if there's decent convective bands forming and nothing to wreck its circulation in the coming days.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have not issued a bulletin yet but their satpic image rate it as 'fair'.  The image does show some sprial banding flowing into it and the low has that look about it.

Strong cyclones?  That's the $64,000 question.  Even though Helen brushed us, another day or two in those hot waters west of us would have seen her grow quicker.  Once they get into that situation they intensify rapidly over a short period.  They may take a week to get organised, but once they find their niche environment they go ballistic.  From what I've seen up here anything is possible severity wise.

Mike

[Mike]

Here's some photos from the other day with a nice bunch of mammatus over the city around 7:30pm after the late arvo storms. 

Lots of lightning activity tonight, Thurs 7th Feb with a line of storms in the rural area.  Only managed one pic as I could not be bothered aiming my 300mm to get something!  Working as you would expect as is the case when these things roll in    Storms moved near the city later on and saw several strong bolts close by which made it worse. 

 Best chances for decent lightning will be today (Friday 8th) and Saturday early - much depends on how frequent the showers will be.



and more lumpy stuff - always like seeing this, especially when you know what it is!



and my lone long shot of CGs.  Missed a fantastic bolt fest whilst refocussing, 6 strikes side by side and you think I did not curse just a little!



Here's the radar animation from about 7:30pm to about midnight.  Lots of activity moving in from the SE and right near the end of the loop there's a great line formed along the coast.  Saw a lot of lightning from work in this area, would have been a great photo op.

---> Darwin radar loop

Mike

[Mike]

Greetings all.  Just a tad damp here in the tropics!

The monsoon is in full swing at the moment.  It arrived on Saturday 9 Feb but has been more active Monday and today.  The showers were fair over the weekend but of late heavy downpours every 20 mins or so is the norm.  Most areas are receiving around 10-40mm.  I know my area has had a fair cop of precip, especially at night!

 No thunderstorm activity during the first two days but this morning at around 4:30am two lines of storms came through.  A fair bit of lightning, and as it happens I went out for a look but no pics worth keeping due to CG flash reflection through the rain. (I hate that) 

 Originally BoM forecast for it to ease on Wednesday 13th, but the monsoon is still active and is set to be with us at least until Friday.   We have a low embedded in a trough near Timber Creek, way down the track, but it's not expected to do much.  The low may be enhancing the storm activity considering that we don't get all that much storm activity during the monsoon - normally just a bit of thunder but no visible lightning as opposed to this morning. 

There were two lows off WA initially and one was to move westward and take some of our monsoon rain with it, it's no longer there giving rise to our monsoon being active still.  The other low could be a fizzer going by what the JTWC says.

The JTWC has their forecast for cyclone formation as fair for the WA system, poor for the QLD system,  WA's has got semi-favorable environment but shear is hampering its formation at this time.  They don't hold much hope for the one off Queensland.  From what the WA BoM say and show their low will be a CAT2 cyclone by mid-week.

Rainfall stats as of 9am yesterday 12 Feb; Channel Island 86mm, Howard springs 81mm, Roseberry 80mm, Katherine 75.4mm, Darwin Airport 56mm and where i live - a whopping 142mm in the past three days!  No wonder my lawn is like a sponge.  All these areas are within 30km of the city except for Katherine which is 290km.

Here's some radar animation from this morning's storms.
 
http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=633&numberofImages=40&dateStart=1202733000&dateFinish=1202765400

Mike