Hi all.
an update on what's been happening with our weather at the moment. From the last post I mentioned the monsoon had arrived - well that same monsoon is
still with us. Low depression areas in the last week or two have invigorated the monsoon flow thus allowing it to maintain momentum.
Over the last two weeks we've seen three out of every 7 days with constant heavy showers and the remainder with sporadic shower activity. Some days have caused flooding within the inner suburbs of Darwin with at least a metre of water over the highways in some areas! Local falls have been around 20-50mm, but inland areas are benefiting with up to 100+mm.
Currently we have a low sitting just west of Katherine, which is about 100km from Darwin and has been stationary with some movement toward the N/NW. It is intensifying gradually as it draws the monsoon into it. The Victoria River Downs area to the NW of the NT is seeing a lot of rain and much heavier falls. It is expected to do two things...either remain where it is or move NW into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Thursday where its formation to cyclone status is moderate or a 40% chance, but if it does the BoM only expect it to become a CAT1 system, but all things being equal that may change! This is the same ocean body where TC Helen formed this year.
There have been no storms to speak of - so chasing of late is more favorable for reading our forum threads! If the low does not form we can expect a break period back to build up conditions which will bring back the hot/humid days and of course thunderstorms.
Our next monsoon is due mid-March which is the danger period for us,statistically speaking for the most number of cyclones to form within our region and at least two are expected to make landfall if they do form. Rainfall averages are above average by about 250mm for this month which is pretty neat, so well over 1200mm. Dam levels are at 95% and rising.
Of note, flooding has already begun at a tourist area on the Adelaide River (croc jumping thing..) and the tourist building and car park are already underwater by a couple of metres (again). This venue always floods and I'm heading out today to take a short drive to get some photos. Why they don't move this structure from the side of the riverbank is beyond me...but flooding is only temporary to them one thinks! Will post some photos on my return. The actual Adelaide River is almost full and is lapping the bottom of the highway bridge - which is a fair distance in height!
water levels were a bit lower than I anticipated when arriving at the tourist location, although the river was very high at the banks. I would expect that with any further downpours and coinciding with a high tide this will change dramatically.
