26 November 2007
Pretty dull here in the tropics at the moment!
Inland storm(s) is the norm, fairly large but within 80km of the seabreeze winds it's just a nonesense! One large cell within a decent view about 30-40odd km away to the SW. A lack of steering winds, decent shear and that seabreeze murdered it to vapour.
Observed for over about 45 minutes with this storm and it had excellent potential - big tower, huge amount of convective CUs to the rear bubbling away. Anvil was average though and whilst I could see the updraft trying, it had no push once it got to a certain height and range of me.
CAPE etc was very good, but lapse rates i think just weren't going to be assisted by that on its own. Drier air right throughout the sounding with a nasty inversion at 900ish. Watching the storm come around the western side of the harbour the anvil just pettered out, the CUs following it just spread out like pancakes and the leading group of feeding CUs to the front just separated once they hit cooler air. Terribly frustrating even when observing!
Sometimes I wish we'd get some nice dryline storms again like we had a few weeks back. Last week apparently BoM said we were heading for a very strong line of storms but ironically it was moving that fast that it brought hot easterly winds with it and they burnt themselves out!
I had to be a forecaster up here - they get hammered by 'some' other chasers up here for not apparently being 'accurate' - easy for some to critique.....!
Mike