David,
You wrote:
From memory I would have expect tornadic storms to move generally NE in this situation and I would assume that the Armidale storm to have been one of those that produced one of the tornadoes further to the SW over the northern central west slopes & plains.
I very much doubt if the storms that were tornadic further back were any where near this isolated cell. This occurred well ahead of the band as depicted on the satellite imagery. I similar isolated cell developed in the Hunter and moved through near Newcastle which both Michael and I photographed from Wyee. I say these were different in that the anvils were spreading almost due southwards though movement would have been generally east.
I would have thought that ahead of the upper trough storms would have moved southeast to east southeast at most given the profiles. I am surprised that with an 850hPa wind being northwest that tornadoes occurred in a few different areas. Perhaps earlier they were from the north or the bases were extremely low. It does explain why the tornadoes were not violent and very long lived though not that the three F2's were no slouch.
Whilst on the topic of directions, Geoff Thurtell and I visited the farms affected by the Elong Elong tornado. Given the road heads west to west southwest, the tornado crossing from over the hill indicated a southeasterly trajectory or perhaps east-southeast path at most easterly. This is consistent with what I would anticipate from the model data. Only in an high precipitation state would I anticipate northerly component though I would suspect the storms to be swallowed but others up the line.
My original point with regards to Armidale was that a southerly moving storm was doubtful in my opinion. I believe more the southwest approach.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
