Topic: Rain event NE NSW / SE QLD: 4 to 8 September 2007

[Michael Bath]

Model output has varied significantly leading up to this event with various scenarios suggesting a low off the southern Queensland coast at some stage this week. An upper trough is currently amplifying over Queensland and may assist in the formation of the low pressure system. The position of a strong high south of the mainland will ensure a good onshore flow for several days, so some rainfall accumulations over 100mm are likely along some parts of the NE NSW and SE QLD coast.

This morning sees some heavy showers/ coastal storms impacting the Coffs and Clarence coasts and spreading northward.

Michael

[David Brodrick]

There is currently some lightning over Mt Kaputar and further west past Walgett. RADAR shows some other cells developing rapidly in the area.

GFS shows only marginal instability but it has boundary layer conditions all messed up. Will be interesting to watch what happens.

[Michael Bath]

The activity inland appears to be circulating, centred SW of Moree. Quite a lot of strikes on lightning tracker over the districts covered by that radar.

20mm here since 3pm - moderate to heavy continuous showers from the SE - very nice.

[Steven]

Do you think there'll be any lightning in SE QLD? definitely it has begun to rain, but no where near as heavy as August 23, 24.

[Michael Bath]

There was some lightning further north yesterday afternoon but I was not looking closely enough to know which areas it affected.  A couple of sites have accumulated over 100mm since 9am yesterday - the highest appears to be 171mm NW of Rockhampton and 164mm NW of Maroochydore.

[Michael Bath]

I see Mt Bilewilam - which copped over 1,000mm in about 36 hours two weeks ago, has topped the charts again from this event with 37, 76 and 127mm on consecutive days. The Sunshine Coast has done pretty well overall with Brisbane missing out yet again.



My rainfall figures this week (24 hours to 9am Tuesday to Friday): 2mm, 32mm, 10mm, 9mm.  Would be over the September average with that.

[Harley Pearman]

Dear all

I have been watching this rain event especially since I had an RDO yesterday. I have seen the latest totals with Noosa Heads topping the list on 129 mm. This is the same region that copped falls of up to 700 mm two weeks ago.

Yesterday morning after 6 am, I had a look at the Mt Stapylton Doppler radar and the nearby radars and satellite images and noted how the rain bands were swirling underneath the core of the low and then being pulled onto the coastline. The rains were not penetrating inland beyond the Great Diving Range.

The best time to view an east coast low is between midnight and 7 am as this is the time they usually peak in intensity. The rains occurring just north of Brisbane were at the heaviest during this time.

This has been common all season and the higher incidence of east coast lows has seen some very high coastal rains while the inland drought continues.


Harley Pearman

[Jimmy Deguara]

Some rain now developing particularly during this afternoon here in Sydney on our day off Friday 7th September. Slow moving cold air cumulonimbus providing some wet weather and soaking light rain.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Steven]

All in all, we scored around 212 mm for this event, add that to another 400 mm in August, we have had usually yearly rain in one go! however it looks like that this is now dissipating, which we don't mind of course, but Brisbane does, and I sympathize with them, as it seems all the rain just wraps around Brisbane in almost every rain event.

The only thing that will save them would probably be a cyclone. Did I mention how cold it is? it's freezing here.