Hi all,
In response to the two points Michael raised, I think the 550mb inversion will weaken as the upper trough approaches this afternoon and the 850mb inversion - i hope this hangs around as it would keep convection nice and isolated with any luck. But on that, you'd then need to look for areas where this inversion (cap) can be broken - the ranges and along the trough.
Today has looked better with each model run. Not sure if anyone has noticed (maybe its just me) but the models have really not been that great in forecasting the last few events until the morning of the event. Makes it tough to make a proper forecast target a few days/the night before.
Shear isn't great in the 600-500mb layer today based on forecast soundings but the latest LAPS run shows a great upper trough pushing into SEQ today. Upper troughs always make me happy . Apart from the 600-500mb layer, shear is pretty nice. The lowest 1-1.5km are generally N to NE in the 10-15knt range and then westerly above that, getting up to 25knts at 700mb. Shear at the anvil level is around 50knts which isn't too bad either. Instability...well with the upper trough pushing in and dropping 500mb temps down to -14 to -16C range (-14C over Wide Bay and -16C over the BR's), combined with say 30/15 gives some pretty tasty instability indicies with CAPE approaching 1600j/kg and LI's in the -7C range. Certainly nothing to shy away from. (Not totally dissimilar set up to Nov 8 last year).
Without going into too much detail, I think I'd probably head out to somewhere like Marburg. My preferred are of choice is probably around Yarraman - Nanango (maybe a bit further N) but to keep the southern option open, Marburg is a good starting point as you can shoot S to Boonah if things fire down in that region.
Looks quite unstable for the next few days too but again its hard to pick a target as the models don't appear to have a decisive handle on the situation. Mid/upper level moisture may come in to play over the weekend.
Macca
