Topic: NSW/QLD Storms and Rain Event: 22 - 28 October 2009

[Jason(pato)]

Chased with Michael Bath and later meeting up with Rodney Wallbridge. Here's some pics from a less than spectacular chase out to Mallanganee. Most stuff that struggled to get going were moisture starved and low topped. But still nice to be out amongst it again and here that familiar sound of thunder again.

Early convection west of our position


 
This struggling cell managed to spit out two visible CGs and some thunder



A fair bit of virga was abundant today thanks to dry lower levels



Thanks to MB for picking me up as I'm carless for the next little while. Great to get out with NRs crew again.
Tomorrow looks a bit more promising than today but with a pretty saturated forecast sounding for 06z will this result in embedded thunder rather than discreet cells. Although there appears to be a hint of a dry slot in there but with these smoothed forecast soundings its hard to be completely sure of the accuracy of them. Time will tell I guess.

Heres the CAPE chart for tomorrow (00z run)



And the forecast sounding (for the Lismore area)



Cheers Jason

[nmoir]

on Friday i went up to Karuah on the central coast , even the BOM models suggested that a moist NE wind would make it through to the ranges at least ,  but oh no it did not happen plus the storms were raining on their inflow (i thought that might happen but i could only chase that day). One storm was struggling to organise and had an interesting base breifly but moisture was only getting about 4 or 5 km inland. any way heres a couple of pix.

[nmoir]

still cant put more than one pic up but heres a frame grab of lightning from the same storm

[Karina Roberts (slavegirl)]

still cant put more than one pic up but heres a frame grab of lightning from the same storm

Once you put your post up with the one pic modify it and you'll be able to add the other pics in the one post   nice lightning pic 

Got to watch a few nice cells try to get going today (had a nice vantage point from the balcony at varsity towers facing the hills) saw a couple of CG's and a small crawler but that was about it nice to see some lightning though been a while lol got pics of one of the cells will post the pics whn i get home tomorrow
Cheers

Karina

[Chris.]

Location Warwick SE Qld. Sat 24/10/09

We had a repeat of Fridays activity only this time it was much bigger. The cell in the photos below although slow moving, grew considerably and at sunset it had formed an anvil near Allora. There were a few smaller cells around and again the same thing, small cumulus forming at around 11am.

I am hoping the last two days of activity is a build up for this afternoon or Monday storms. There is not a cloud in the sky at the moment.

ps...love all the photos but that lightning shot is pretty cool Nick.







Regards,
Chris.

[Clayton]

Hey
Where do u guys think all the action is going to be today?

[nmoir]

a boundary over sydneys suburbs has created backbuilding cells  which are dumping rain , in the last half an hour i have had 42 mm in Marrickville (sydneys inner south west). no sign of them weakening yet , some lightning but not extravagent. good to pick out the boundary on doppler wind radar

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Well I can’t say I know where exactly they will be today but recent cells southwest from Coolangatta have been forming so probably the border area again. Huge ocean cumulonimbus from here.

storm boy

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Well it looks like I was right. A nice thunderstorm structure has been growing for a while now north of us (Ballina) causing a cell to pop up on the radar with specks of orange. The lightning tracker confirms cloud to ground strikes and some more convection developing to the west of us. Two more cells east of Tenterfield are developing now.

we also have a severe storm warning now

storm boy

[Mathew Townsend]

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES, FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND

For people in the
NORTHERN RIVERS and
MID NORTH COAST Forecast Districts.

Issued at 2:44 pm Sunday, 25 October 2009.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Lismore, Grafton, Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Taree and Dorrigo.

Nothing much yet on the Tablelands. I can see forming light showers out west of Narrabri so far...

[Harley Pearman]

Sydney rain event - 25 October 2009

There appears to have been a significant rain event across a portion of Sydney mainly within eastern Sydney. Rainfall for sunday to 4.30 pm has been light across Western Sydney with falls of 3 to 4 mm which is nothing significant. However when checking the rainfall figures for Sydney I note the following weather stations have recorded:-

Frenchs Forest - 65 mm, Canterbury - 54 mm, Marrickville Golf Club - 51 mm, Chatswood - 46 mm and Sydney Observatory Hill - 33 mm.

When checking the Sydney Observatory Hill weather station figures on Weatherzone, it is noted that at 11.30 am, 1 mm had fallen, 12 noon - 4.8 mm, 1 pm - 18 mm, 1.30 pm - 27 mm and 3 pm - 33 mm. It appears the event took place between 12 noon and 2 pm.

Being at Rouse Hill in North West Sydney at the time where rainfall was light, I was not aware of this event occurring and at no time did I see any thunderstorm clouds or dense clouds to the east producing this.

La Peruse in South East Sydney had only 8 mm so the intense falls appear to be localised and isolated across the city.

Harley Pearman

[Colin Maitland]

I was at Browns Plains today and between 12.30 and 1.15pm a beautiful cell built just to the east of us, it looked as  if we were finally going to get some action and good photos but, as true to the weather pattern of late, it slid past and soon dissipated to everyones disappointment.

Col

[Karina Roberts (slavegirl)]

The cell that dropped hail on Nerang looked pretty nice from my high vantage point(3rd floor lol) at robina, some nice CG's from the storm but it didn't appear to last very long got a few drops of rain here from it but out at Nerang there was reports of hail 2cm in diameter. Pity my phone went flat otherwise i would have some pics of the cell it was very photogenic for a little while

[Colin Maitland]

I am posting the following in this thread even though the forecasted event goes past the 27Th of October. I believe their is a concern for the Central QLD town of Charleville and surrounding townships, with the BSCH model predicting heavy precipitation over the next 120 hours.

Charleville has a total accumulated amount of 300mm during this period. Although this has changed a often over the last few days, it still keeps coming back to the scenario that they are in for some very heavy rain over the following period of time.

As the rain begins to fall, by the 27Th of October, if the models are correct,(I say this due to the continual changing of the predictions of late), Charleville will have received 50mm of rain.

By the 28th of October a further 100mm, 29th October another 100 mm and 30th October 50mm more. ( 300mm, and as obviously this could more or less than 1st predicted)

As we would all be well aware of, Charleville has received many devastating floods in the past. With this amount of rain and the ground being very dry and hard, I believe there is a concern for flash flooding to occur.


Col  
 

Late edit:  Once again the models have drastically changed over the last 12 hours and all models are now showing that falls of around 75mm are expected in the Charleville region. It appears the 00Z charts on BSCH are over estimating the totals,while the 18Z charts are a more conservative figure, this now appears to be the trend that is occurring regularly and making very difficult to put faith in the system.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Storm warnings are still current and good they are. Just look at what Grafton is preparing for!

storm boy