Hi all,
Looks nice for NE NSW and SEQ today. Shear is lacking but what is lacking in that department will be made up for by some pretty decent levels of instability.
Its an interesting set up with dry air pushing in through much of the area north of Brisbane, however, the SEly change that moved through NSW yesterday pushed inland far enough overnight to moisten the lower levels over NE NSW and the southern half of the SEQ area. With DP's on the ranges now being up in the mid-teens, it shows that the moisture depth is at least 1000m deep and I've been following the models and obs closely over the last 24 hours and I think the models have a good handle on the moisture situation - so I'm not as concerned with moisture as I could've been.
As has been mentioned, shear is somewhat lacking. 500mb winds are around 25knts (maybe up to 30knts) from the WNW and 700mb winds are in the 15-20knt range from the NW. The anvils will be being pushed along by a 35-50knt jet (depending on how high the storms get...but based on the soundings, I'd suggest this will be around 40-45kft). Of interest is the shear later on in the lower levels - it is forecast to pick up to 15-20knts from the NE (or even ENE) at 850mb which could make things slightly more interesting.
Instability is quite nice with 500mb temps of -14 and DP's well into the teens we should see MLCAPE of around 2500jkg and LI's of between -6 and -9. Given this level of instability and the moderate shear, I'd suggest flash flooding and the potential for some very large hail are the two main features today (although damaging winds are often a factor on days like today as big downbursts occur). Hail size has the potential to get up into the 6+cm range in the strongest storms today (it reminds me quite a lot of Nov 8 2006 where I lost my windscreen near Esk to 8.5cm hail).
I think storms will go up along the ranges today as well as along the dry/moist air boundary which is sitting further west and are likely to move ESE initially before heading NE as they reach severe levels. I think anywhere from Grafton to Toowoomba could be a target for chasers out there today (although more cloud further S) but for anyone heading out for a first time, take care out there today - it should get pretty nasty
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. Personally I like the Warwick - Tenterfield - Texas triangle.
Macca