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Author Topic: Tropical Cyclone Melanie - WA coast: from 28 Dec 2007  (Read 6511 times)

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Offline Carlos E

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Tropical Cyclone Melanie - WA coast: from 28 Dec 2007
« on: 29 December 2007, 11:58:25 AM »
Well Cyclone Melanie has now formed in the southeast Indian.

It's currently being sheared by the looks of it, though that's expected to go away during the next 24 hours.
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Offline Mike

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Melanie - WA coast: from 28 Dec 2007
« Reply #1 on: 29 December 2007, 07:48:05 PM »
Melanie expected to be a CAT3 during the next few days, not too shabby for an early monsoonal cyclone!  Showing nice structure and circulation but an eye is yet to form.   Tropical charts shown on 00Z have three distinct lows embedded with even NE/NW flow in all, but 12Z chart shows Melanie pulling majority of NW flow to her, our low is cut off and an inland low to the SW of WA is dragging our moisture afar, the low off QLD is pulling the NE flow to it.  As the norm Darwin is feeling the pinch. :{  Why is the weather so unkind I say.

10pm WA time advice for system can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW24100.txt and summary from JTWC can be found here https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0808web.txt  which gives very positive agreements to models and good indicators for further intesifying.

Mike
« Last Edit: 29 December 2007, 07:53:13 PM by Mike »
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Offline Carlos E

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Melanie - WA coast: from 28 Dec 2007
« Reply #2 on: 29 December 2007, 08:24:24 PM »
Melanie has exploded on the satellite. Reminds me a little of how Monica acted in the Gulf. It's gone from being a messy unorganised Cyclone to one with deep convection in all quadrants. Definitely be keeping an eye on it.
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Offline Carlos E

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Melanie - WA coast: from 28 Dec 2007
« Reply #3 on: 29 December 2007, 09:42:39 PM »


It's managed to become pretty tight in the last 5 hours.
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Offline Mike

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Melanie - WA coast: from 28 Dec 2007
« Reply #4 on: 30 December 2007, 07:12:33 AM »
Melanie of late does have some 'mini' cyclone structure about it, compact and not showing the spiralling rain bands we normally see.  she does have some large tails to her SW and definitely the flow from the NW top of the NT is evident right down the WA coast into her. BoM have her at 1000hpa on the maps, don't know if that's just being cautious, yet they have her as a CAT3 in the same period??  Perhaps the maps have not been updated as yet.....you'd think they'd be updating the maps considering it's a cyclone !  Thankfully if she does make landfall in the Pilbara it's not too populated - although having said that - when TC George struck three people were killed in the same area.

Latest wind shear from JTWC

Mike
« Last Edit: 30 December 2007, 08:46:29 AM by Mike »
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Offline Richary

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Melanie - WA coast: from 28 Dec 2007
« Reply #5 on: 30 December 2007, 01:06:05 PM »
Looking at the 1km satellite images, Select Pilbara region and have a look at the 0333 UTC image today. For that one shot an interesting central structure appears (a sort of ring with no cloud) around the centre. The effect isn't there in the following image.
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