Indeed it does. I had been watching the low as it was forming near Jabiru to our south, but with the lack of storms to chase - in fact lack of anything to chase - i've been doing other things and not really monitoring it. All expectations were for the low to track eastward toward the Gulf to Queensland - which it is still forecast to do - but this system has been a headache for the BoM to forecast. It is very erratic in its movements and as shown by the map posted it did a complete U-turn and decided to do other things.
I'm not too concerned at the moment with it as far as impact, the bureau advises that they still are waiting to see what it will do in the next day or two. There are no winds to speak of note and little rain. But as the low moves closer to us we'll see an increase in precip and winds as one would expect. It's small and just sorting itself out. A CAT1 will be its only fame for us unless it moves NE into a more expanse of water where things will dramatically change no doubt.
I'm hoping for some gusty storms with this system. It has the potential for 50kt gusts tomorrow or Saturday and will be out and about as soon as there's any hint of storm activity associated with this system as it moves east across us. The majority of the larger lightning borne storms have been to my south and east around 100km away of late. With some 'cleaner' air down these parts some excellent storm structure should be had.
The general attitude around Darwin is one of 'wait and see' and no-one is really too concerned about Helen at the moment. (something that is all too common even with larger systems I'm afraid to say...)
Satpic included with 4 very large storms in the southern parts and the low can be seen west of Darwin. I'd like a few of thos bigs cells closer to Darwin I must say and the low might just provide some beauty's. Radar imagery from wyndham where the low is situated just east, you can see the circulation and large rain bands.
UPDATES: Radar animation here
http://radar.strikeone.net.au/?fuseaction=loops.main&radar=633&numberofImages=10&dateStart=1199327400&dateFinish=1199363400 for the last 10 or so hours. There have been regular monsoonal shower bands associated with the low to our east coming from the NW. If the low does reach CAT1 status and move in its anticapted eastward track then Darwin will be still feel the effects of it, but where I live and further down to Adelaide River about 90km to the southeast will feel the winds a little stronger i suspect. The rain bands are moving quickly through the region and dumping a lot of rain in the short bursts.
I'll attempt to keep everyone up to date as things happen. The watch is still in effect but no firm actions are being taken just yet, the bureau is advising within 48 hours but not before 24 hours for any immediate action by residents. The low is still very active and the central pressure is decreasing every three hours or so. Their biggest concern is if the low moves NE toward Darwin overnight.
Latest BoM advice:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 pm CST [10:30 pm WDT] Thursday 3 January 2008
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Mitchell
Plateau in Western Australia to Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities from Daly River
Mouth to Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
At 9:30 pm CST [9:00 pm WDT] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
145 kilometres north northwest of Wyndham and
390 kilometres west southwest of Darwin and
moving west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour.
The low remains slow moving and may develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE later
tonight or tomorrow morning, before moving eastward towards the Top End of the
Northern Territory.
GALES could affect coastal and island communities between Mitchell Plateau in
Western Australia and Daly River Mouth in the Northern Territory later tonight
or early Friday morning.
If the system were to take a more northeast track, there is the possibility that
GALES could affect coastal and island communities between Daly River Mouth and
Goulburn Island, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands late on Friday or on
Saturday.
Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the north Kimberley region tonight
and tomorrow.
Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST [9:00 pm WDT]:
.Centre located near...... 14.2 degrees South 127.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 80 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 990 hectoPascals
Mike
