Topic: Lets Look at the other side: VIC, SA, TAS day to day weather

[Peter J]

Quite clearly a break from the rainfall would be good for NSW Northern Rivers and QLD's northern and southern paerts at the moment. Spare a thought for us Mexicans (Victorians), especially the outer-eastern Melbournians. Since Dec 22, we have not had one drop of rain. Two cool changes have occurred and some cloud has passed by. But not one drop of rain has fallen where I live. If this keeps up, Melbourne could have its driest January on record! so far that is the case, the previous driest to this day (9/1) is 15mm.
On a serious note, could someone devise a plan to ship that lovely overflowing floodwater down to our driest catchment dams? We could use some rain too. Its expected to clock over 40deg c for the next two days straight. Also a good flood would do South Oz a world of good too!

Thanks

Big Pete (not so big as I'm drying up).

[Steven]

Well, I guess Alice Springs found its way down to Melbourne, congratulations. Its just the crazy Melbourne weather!

It seems abnormal for such a prolonged heatwave, this has gone on for weeks now, are you sure global warming has anything to do with it?

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

From my recollections of the Melbourne and Victorian region, I thought heatwaves at this time of the year were not so uncommon. It seems more normal weather than what had been observed in most recent seasons. Correct?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Mike]

Being originally from Adelaide I've always experienced the long hot spells during December/January most years.  I would have thought it was the norm, but having said that, not to have any rain at all in one area for so long seems out of the ordinary ?  Pete, can you dig up some stats on the rainfall averages for the last few years?  This will give us something to go on and discuss further for your parts of the world.

Mike

[Peter J]

Jimmy,

You are right. Heatwaves in Melbourne are not uncommon at this time of the year, but there is normally a pattern to them. Normally from cool days of 23 to 24c progressing to the 36-37c following on with afternoon storms/rain to cool the temp off then back to start of cycle. Unfortunately of recent times, especially in this decade, the weather during summer here is getting dryer and dryer. There are the unusual rain events like Feb 3, 2005 - where we had close to 170mm in 7 hrs (a record), and 2006 we didnt get rain for much of January (a decent storm came and dumped 20mm in 2hrs around the 18th or 19th of Jan that year). But they are becoming common place. Also our water storages (catchments) are at their lowest since the 1982-83 drought - a sobering thought for the fire fighters here). But it is unusual to not get rain between christmas day and the second weekend of January during my lifetime.

Mike

I can only go by the figures from the BoM, as they have been my mainstay for stats. Last year between Dec 22 and Jan 9, Melbourne's rainfall was from memory about 18mm. This year it is 0mm. The forecast does hold a possibility of showers tomorrow night (1-5mm). Hopefully it will happen. If not we may be in for our driest January since 1954.

Big Pete (aka PJ)

[Steven]

Isn't funny how Sydney hasn't seen many of these heat waves in fact, they have missed out, usually around this time you may see an occasional 38 Degree day, we haven't seen that much, there were a few but not much. I do spare a thought for those down south. I personally think its got to do with global warming/climate change and La Nina, maybe I'm wrong.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Steve,

I personally think its got to do with global warming/climate change and La Nina, maybe I'm wrong.

I would agree with La Nina contributing to the lack of hot dry days this summer. The probability of moisture laden air reaching extreme temperatures of near 40C is relatively low. Once the drier low dew point air sets in, with the right conditions, yes certainly you can easily break the 40C barrier on some days during the summer. To my knowledge, we have not cracked the 40C as yet. Can I be corrected on this?

Of course, we are only approaching the middle of the traditional summer months. January being the hottest month as well as February can change things.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Peter J]

Certainly Jan and Feb are amongst Melbourne's hottest months as a rule, and March can be too. The big problem down here is the greater the dry the more chance for worse bushfire threats. So far, I have heard reports of a large fire in Elaine, near Ballarat. And the current change moving through Vic as we speak will not be helping the firies fighting that fire. Wind gusts here where I live have been bordering on 60kph so far, and Tullamarine Airport has had gusts up to 70kph. Couple these gusts with fairly low RH levels (19% near where I live), and bushfire is now a serious threat. An old saying goes here, that if the RH drops below 15%, the fire threat increases by almost 1000% - a risk we have to endure during Summer and Autumn.

Big Pete

[Richary]

As a side issue if it is global warming causing strange weather patterns, it has snowed in Baghdad for the first time in recorded history.

[Peter J]

Richary,

I have been taking notice of the deep low that has been circling around the Iraq area of late. Jim Andrews of accuweather.com's international section (click on World Weather), has an interesting article on this low and the fact that parts of Iraq and Saudi Arabian deserts are getting snowfalls for the first time in many many years.

Funny, "Global" warming is not so global at the moment (lol).

Big Pete

[Mike]

Even more left field - doesn't that indicate one of the seven signs of the apocalypse! 

According to Wikipedia snow happens once or twice every decade, but I also found this article from 2005 with a photo of an ice laden dwelling in Saudi Arabia.  Must be a weather pattern that does come around more than twice every decade.

http://news.ert.gr/en/c/1/13970.asp

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia

Mike

[Peter J]

Hi all,

Just an update of the weather here in Mooroolbark Victoria - we had .5mm on the storm day outlined earlier in this thread. And that is all for January so far. The Coldstream area got 3.4mm. This is still shaping up to be the driest January on record, unless the promised storms and rain predicted for the weekend eventuate, otherwise the govt here may tighten water restrictions, coz our storage dam levels are going to drop. We've had 3 cool change periods here (including tonight), but little to no rain about. I feel for all of you blokes in NSW and QLD that are getting inundated though. We never seem to get the weather in moderation any more, just falls into extremes now (good for the chasers).

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

Jimmy

You are correct.

For the first time since the summer of 1999, temperatures anywhere in Sydney have not yet reached 40 degrees for the summer 2007 / 2008. The hottest day this year was the 13/1/2008 when it topped 38.4 degrees Celsius at Penrith and 37.1 Celsius where I live (Blacktown).

It is the coolest summer for many years. Temperatures have reached 30 degrees at my place (Blacktown) on 13 days in October, 6 days in November and December (Same number) and to date, 5 days in January making it 30 days this season or 11 days since 1 December 2007. The number of hot days, defined as a maximum temperature of 30 degrees or more is well down than normal.

Sydney I think has had just 1 day when it has reached 30 degrees. Further, of these the majority of these days have averaged between 30 and 32 degrees.

Compare this to previous summers - 71 days last spring / summer and 73 days previous season.

October 2007 was 2 degrees warmer than November and December meaning that November and December were significantly colder than the month of October.   

This is consistent with what The BOM expected for eastern and north eastern NSW this summer being a summer with below average temperatures and above average rainfall.

Yet for interest and contrast, take a look at what is going on in SW NSW. A hot spell is affecting regional cities like Albury and Wagga Wagga where by 16/1/2008, the average monthly temperature for January was near 36 degrees or 5 degrees above the long term average maximum of 31 degrees. It is reaching the mid 30s every day in this region despite the La Nina and predictions of a cooler summer elsewhere. There are similar readings coming from Griffith and large areas of northern Victoria as well. I have never seen this happen during a La Nina event.

One suggestion is that La Nina's could be loosing their impact when compared to past La Nina's in some SW regions of NSW and northern Victoria. I have noticed an unusual number of warmer days for Melbourne so far this month as well. Allot more data is needed in this area but if this is true, then SW NSW and much of Victoria could be in serious trouble with their future rainfall. Keep in mind the drought has not broken in any of these regions. Rainfalls in these regions were below average again for 2007 (Up to 30% below average).

There is an excellent report recently published by the CSIRO in the Sydney Morning Herald available on the smh.com.au website (Environment Section) Titled "This Drought May Never Break". Worth reading. It explores this topic quite well and makes frightening conclusions about the likely future rainfall and climate for Victoria for the future.


Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Harley,

I think you hit the nail on the head down here in Vic. Although it has been cooler in parts of NSW (and some degree QLD), it has been significantly warmer and dryer across VIC. The drought has not broken here for some time, and unless good rains come in late Autumn and early Winter here, then things could get even worse.

I have remembered wetter times near my place in decades gone past. I even remember floods in Feb, and May (close to my brithday time). Also I remember sustained periods of rainfall in Melbourne (sometimes 5 to 6 hours at a time, even a whole day). Those times are fast becoming ancient history. I don't think in the last Decade - (1997-2007), that there has been a rain period consistently beyond 2-3 hrs in length here. Apart from the Dec 05 and 07, and Feb 06 rain event days (the storms in 05 and the floods in 06, and Dec last year), where there has been significant rainfall in a short space of time - and some great storms to watch, I don't think that Melbourne has endured a period of rain lasting more than 2 hrs at a time - when we have had rain.

Dry times ahead. For those who may be religious - pray for rain for Vic, and SA, coz both states REALLY need it!

Big Pete

[Peter J]

Also in Melb, summer and early Autumn temps have gone beyond 40deg C on at least 8-10 times in the last 3 years - including one day a couple of years ago reaching a scorching 46 deg C in Melbourne (49 deg C in Geelong - 47 deg C in Coldstream). That was a hot one.

Big Pete (appended)