Topic: Lets Look at the other side: VIC, SA, TAS day to day weather

[Richary]

When I moved to Sydney from Adelaide late October last year I was greeted by a huge thunderstorm. Arrived at the real estate about 3, signed the papers and grabbed the keys. At the time the agents were trying to complete a backup so they could turn the machines off!

Then went over to look at the place. And quickly decided to use the carport as it came down with lots of close lightning bolts and small hail. But then had to keep driving to drop the long distance girlfriend back to Coffs Harbour.

So I have hopes for the rest of October. It's firing up a bit and hopefully will keep improving. Yesterday fizzled where I went, down south had some good storms on radar towards Kiama, or up near Gosford. Today we had some cloud buildup early but nothing happened (as forecast).

[Peter J]

Tuesday 21st October 2008

After nearly 2 weeks without a drop of rain, it was nice to see inside the last hour (8-9pm), that some parts of Melbourne, including my home area have has something in the way of rainfall - got 5mm here in 30 mins. which is significant at least (didn't think the weather was severe enough to put it in the current events posting).

I hope to put some weather pics from here in once i find a way to convert them from mobile-phone camera to the posting area. (still a horrid novice at this)

Big Pete
(umbrella is up)

[Peter J]

Thursday 30 October 2008.

It looks like the start of the "thunderstorm" season in VIC might occur later today EDST. The forecast given last night said there might be a chance of isolated storms in Western and Central Districts - not sure if the severe ones have made it into view yet - wind and humidity are up at the moment. During work overnight, i did sweat unappreciably from the moderate to high humidity and mild to warm temps.

As far as recent rainfall is concerned - 3 days ago had 5mm in 20 mins with a rainstorm with large raindrops - enough to wet the garden, but not enough to soak in. The Big Dry hasn't left yet.

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

Victoria's rainfall deficits continue through October 2008

A statement prepared by the Bureau of Meteorology at:-

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20081031.shtml

sums up the October rainfall deficits really well. In particular:-

a) Melbourne sets a new dry September - October record with 26 mm of rain easily beating the 1915 record when 35.2 mm falls during the same period.

b) Mildura and Sale sets a new record for low rainfall for the corresponding same period.

c) South Australia has a new record low rainfall for the same period with an average of 7 mm falling which is even lower than in 2006 when an average of 7.5 mm of rain fell.

It is even mentioned that a state wide temperature anomaly of 2.1C above average has occurred which ranks behind 2006.

At http://www.bom.gov.au.announcements/media_releases/sa/20081031drywarmsepoct.shtml

the situation in South Australia is also described.

I have investigated this further and found that the average Victorian rainfall for October amounts to this:-

North west - 1 - 5 mm.
Mallee 5-10 mm.
South west 10 - 25 mm.
North east and Murray 10 - 25 mm.
Melbourne 10 - 25 mm.
Dandenongs 25 to 50 mm.
West Gippsland 10 - 25 mm and East Gippsland 25 to 50 mm.

Rainfall anomalies

North west - 25-50 mm below average
North east and Murray - 50 to 100 mm below average.
Western - 50 to 100 mm below average.
Melbourne - 50 to 100 mm below average.
Gippsland - 25 to 50 mm below average.
North east highlands - 100 to 200 mm below average.

During October approximately 90% of the state received "Very much below average rains".
With Echuca and Swan Hill regions suffering "below average rainfall".
The majority of the state received 20 to 40% of average rains although a pocket in East Gippsland fared a little better.

Go to http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi

To illustrate the dry and low rainfall totals for the past 3 months, a comparison is made between more commonly known large centres across the state:-

TOWN                  OCTOBER   SEPTEMBER   AUGUST

Albury/Wodonga            11.4 mm    15.6 mm        41 mm
Ballarat                        10 mm       29 mm          69.8 mm
Bendigo                        8.6 mm     7.4 mm          59 mm
Echuca                        7.2 mm      5 mm            31.6 mm
Geelong                       11.2 mm    34.2 mm        38.6 mm
Hamilton                      15.2 mm    48.8 mm        60 mm
Kerang                        9 mm         4.8 mm         34.4 mm
Mildura                        2.8 mm      2 mm            34.2 mm
Sale                            5.2 mm      11.6 mm       42.2 mm 
Shepparton                  7.2 mm       8.4 mm        32.8 mm   
Warrambool                  26.8 mm     51.4 mm       115 mm

One can infer that coastal SW Victoria is still getting something and August looked promising however the sample provided shows that totals have tapered away and as shown in the models October was a very dry month across the state. Serious rainfall deficiencies are emerging across the state again and it reinforces the articles provided that the last two months have been very dry with some new records being set for "Dry weather".

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Things have been a bit quiet here weatherwise since the storms last week - but the BoM is forecasting more storms to occur in VIC by mid week with an unstable low currently between SA and WA bringing quite a fair bit of instability to VIC by wednesday.

Hopeing for some good photogenic opportunities.

Big Pete

ps - a note for those from Brizzy - hope none of you lost any roofs or houses over that massive supercellular storm last night. Pray that all is well for all up there.

[Peter J]

Been tracking a slow moving and wide new low that formed over WA/SA area and is moving west towards VIC/NSW/QLD regions. By the looks on it - this one may produce a good rain event for the pastoral districts in SA, VIC & NSW (W) - something our farmers are really needing right now.

Big Pete

[Peter J]

This past weekend was a very good rain event day for the eastern half of Melb and the E end of VIC general. Good to see 52mm in the gauge at home for the month so far - most came from this weekend with 32mm for Sat/Sun combined.

Now keeping an eye on the next weather system which will cause storms in VIC, SA (which was under STW when i wrote this post, so was Alice Springs NT), NSW and yet again unlucky QLD from Wed onwards.

May also bring large rain totals - to take a farmer's quote - " the latter rains are ere!"

[Peter J]

I got two topics to combine into one today: 1. The weather of Sat 6/12/08, and the drought in VIC.

1.

I did a winery tour in the southern part of NE VIC (just before the Great Dividing Range) during the afternoon and evening of Sat 6/12. It may well have been a great day for the wine drinkers I had, but it was also a very good day to observe (as I wasn't able to "chase") the front/trough system as it crossed the Yarra Valley district.

I managed to see three storm cells pass over to the east of my position (unfortunately, due to problems with transferring photos from camera-phone to computer, I'm unable at this time to retrieve the photos, but will endeavour to do so at a later date), one (the last cell) which did produce a brief funnel cloud.

The first cell created a bit of interest with a few C2C lightning bolts, and a few rumbles, but no CGs, and it dissipated quickly.

As the day progressed, the second cell dumped a nice 3mm of rain in about 15 mins, and then developed nicely with good updrafts. No lightning seen, but a couple of rumbles made good.

About an hour later, when the wind & cool change arrived, a nice gust front line (a mini-frontcompared to the recent QLD ones) did produce a nice 1/3 between cloud and ground funnel, but it was very short lived. I did manage to get a photo of it and will hopefully post it later.

Overall a very good observation day, and a great tour enjoyed by all, especially with a double-rainbow glowing over the valley, which was extremely photgenic for all the "wine-ies"

2.

Harley might be able to add more to this, but an observation from my group yesterday, most of which came from the East Gippsland district, and some from southern NSW, have said that the NE region of VIC is not as badly affected by the drought as some would think, thanks to late Spring rains. They said the Yarra Valley area looks much greener than they were expecting, and were also surprised to see so many flourishing grape vines across the valley.

Maybe some good news is around for the farmers in NE VIC - especially with mroe heavy rain in the forecast peroid this week.

Big Pete
(preparing for no-work for 8 weeks - yuk)

[Kristy Norman]

We are moving back over to manage our family farm in January which is about 45kms north of Yarrawonga. I must say, I was heartbroken at the state of things over there with the drought. My parents are farmers in the south east riverina and have really struggled the past year, to the point where they probably wont put more crop in next year as they haven't harvested anything now for three seasons. The last two years they bailed up all the wheat and barley for hay, which ended up like a lot of stacked hay last year and burnt down in the shed. This year the gates are open for the stock to eat what there is of it, which isn't much!
My dad, like most farmers over there at the moment is walking around with a defeated look in his eyes, but every day he says "It'll rain one day, that I can be sure of". He is amazing.
As the daughter and also a wife of a farmer, I just hope it's not too late.

[Harley Pearman]

November Rainfall deficits ease throughout Victoria (2008)

Big Pete, I have finally had some time to look at how Victoria fared during November. Located at

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi

containing various interactive maps to view that allows rainfall data to be manipulated.

Some short term good news for Victoria in which November has seen some good rainfall across the state. While the short term deficits have eased, the long term deficits still remain in some areas. In particular:-

Average rainfall for November:

East Victoria centred on Gippsland - 100 to 200 mm.
North East - 50 to 100 mm.
Northern 50 to 100 mm.
Melbourne (East) 50 to 100 mm (west) 25 to 50 mm.
South west - 25 to 50 mm.
Western - 10 to 25 mm.
North west - 25 to 50 mm.

It is interesting to note that the western and south west tended to be drier than the eastern and north west. Parts of Gippsland was rather wet.

Anomalies

a) - Gippsland - 50 to 100 mm above average. (This has helped allot in this area).
b) - NE Victoria graded - 0 to 10 mm above average especially around Albury Wodonga (Helpful but inadequate to remove the long term deficits).
c) - North Central - 25 to 50 mm above average (The area around Shepparton did well).
d) - South west - 10 to 25 mm below average with some grading towards "average".
e) North west - 10 to 25 mm above average (Not too bad for November given the location). Hence Mildura did receive some useful falls during the month.

Enough generally fell to remove or ease the short term deficits but many areas still need good falls to remove the long term deficits.

Some samples for 3 months - 1 September to 30 November 2008:

To highlight the 3 monthly deficits in various regions, a picture is produced for Spring 2008. The dry September and October caused the deficits at some commonly known places.

Location      Mean         Amount received

Portland      200.9 mm    122.6 mm
Ballarat       194.3 mm    96.6 mm
Mildura        81.1 mm     44.8 mm
Wangaratta 162.4 mm    100.6 mm
Morwell       222.4 mm    119 mm
Echuca       113.3 mm    83.3 mm
Albury        182.4 mm    104 mm

A wetter November could not erase the deficits caused in September and October (Refer to the earlier posts on this subject). Hence many regions and towns had similar totals for 3 months being "below average rainfalls".

3 Monthly anomalies

West and south west - 40 to 60% of average.
North east around Albury -Wodonga and regions - 40 to 60% of averages.
Northern - 60 to 80% of averages.
Far east - 60 to 80%.

Thanks to a wet November:-

Gippsland 100 to 125% of averages (Above average in some areas). One can say this area is currently satisfactory but other areas still need rain.

When the 3 monthly drought statement is read:-

South west Victoria - "Very much below average rains.
North west - "Below average rains".
Northern - Ranges from "Below average to average"
Gippsland "Average". Satisfactory for the time being.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

Rains soak Victoria 13/12/2008

Overnight and into the day - 12/12/2008 to 13/12/2008, Melbourne and surrounds has had its wettest day this year.

Big Pete may even have a few words to say about this event.

Some rain gauges across Melbourne had more than 50 mm overnight. Melbourne City topped 36 mm till 9 am and another 10 mm by 4 pm 13/12/2008. Other top falls include Cardina 54 mm, Pakenham 52 mm and Durns Hill 51 mm.

Just about all of Melbourne scored more than 30 mm. More specific Victoria has enjoyed more terrific falls which will ease the water crises. Best falls in some regions include:-

Casterton 71 mm, Falls Creek 64 mm, Hamilton 61 mm Warnambool 55 mm, Ballarat 50 mm. Mildura 19 mm, Echuca 20 mm, Albury / Wodonga 18 mm, Swan Hill 17 mm.

The better falls occurred in the south, south west and Melbourne which will help to replenish water supplies.

I also understand there are various gale warnings about in southern and Mountain districts and general alerts for sheep grazers as well.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Yes, harley, you are right, I do have something about the weekend weather in NE Melbourne from this past weekend.

Firstly, the rain gauge at home registered 34mm on Friday, 45mm on Saturday, and 6mm on Sunday (12/12-14/12)

Secondly, whilst I was on one of my trips on Saturday, watched the entire rainfall event from the Yarra Valley winery region on the NE fringe of suburban Melb. It was quite facinating with the diagonal lighter rain (smaller drops), but quite consistent, and it didn't let up all day. Also the winds were quite strong - at times gale force gusts did pick up.

The only thing missing in the mix over the weekend was the thunderstorms - not sure if W VIC got some, but in the E, it was evident the lack of t-storms was noticable.

Still, even the catchment areas in E and NE Central VIC did get a good soaking and top-up. Hopefully enough of a drop to raise the levels and take us out of severe drought conditions.

There were isolated suburbs hit with flash flooding over the weekend. I did manage to take the double-decker bus I was driving, through some of the larger puddles on the Melba Hwy, in Yarra Glen area, but I think because the ground had been too parched from many years of lack of rainfall, the good soaking did prevent widespread flooding like in decades previous.

All in all, a good rain event, and more follow-up rain is needed still to break the long running drought.

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

Final rainfall statement Victoria 2008 - Short term rainfall deficits ease but long term rainfall deficits remain:

During the month of December 2008, all parts of the state of Victoria received useful to good rainfalls thus easing the short term deficits but not erasing the long term deficits.

Thus far December 2008 rainfalls were:-

North west including the Mallee region - 25 to 50 mm.
North Central - 50 to 100 mm.
North east Victoria varies from 25 to 50 mm to 50 to 100 mm.
Parts of the highlands had between 100 and 200 mm.
South west - 100 to 200 mm.
Melbourne had between 50 to 100 mm.
Gippsland had between 50 to 100 mm. It is noted that some areas had up to 200 mm.

December 2008 is described as a good month for rainfall throughout the state.

Percentages:

Mildura region (Mallee Region) - 150 to 200% above average.
Western region - 200 to 300% above average.
Melbourne - (Western suburbs 150 to 200% above average).
Melbourne - (Eastern suburbs 100 to 150% above average).
North east Victoria - 80 to 100% (Slightly below average to average).
Gippsland - 60 to 150% of averages. Large variations occurred between towns.

Similar rainfall occurred over the north central region.

Anomalies

Mallee - 10 mm above average.
Wimmera - 10 to 25 mm above average.
Wimmera (Further south) - 25 to 50 mm above average.
South west - 50 to 100 mm above average.
North East - 10 mm below average to average.
Melbourne (West 25 to 50 mm above average).
Melbourne (East 10 to 25 mm above average).
Gippsland (Far east) - 10 to 25 mm below average.
Gippsland - 25 to 50 mm above average.
Lower North east (Generally average rainfalls).
North Central - 10 to 50 mm above average.

Short term drought statement:

The three month "Short term drought statement" shows that the rains received in November and December have removed most of the rainfall deficiencies. There is some short term recovery from the drought (October to December period).

Long term 12 month period:

The 12 month rainfall from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2008 for the state shows a different prospective:-

Average 12 month totals:

North west (Mallee) - 200 to 300 mm.
Wimmera (North) - 300 to 400 mm.
Wimmera (South) - 400 to 600 mm.
South West - 600 to 900 mm.
Melbourne - 400 to 600 mm.
North Central - 300 to 600 mm.
North east - 600 to 900 mm.
Gippsland - 600 to 900 mm.

Two small areas north east of Melbourne received between 900 and 1,200 mm of rain for the year.

The anomalies show that most of the state received below average falls for the year indicating that the state has not recovered long term from the drought as shown:-

East Gippsland (Far east) - 400 mm below average.
Central east Gippsland - 100 to 200 mm below average.
North east - As much as 800 mm below average in the highlands. Other areas fall within the range of 200 to 400 mm below average.
North Central - 100 to 200 mm below average.
Mallee and North west - 100 mm below average.
Wimmera - 100 to 200 mm below average.
Melbourne (East - 200 to 400 mm below average).
Melbourne (West - 100 to 200 mm below average).
South west - 100 mm below average.

The drought statement shows some serious rainfall deficiencies around Melbourne. Rainfall is below average everywhere else and the state is precarious and has not recovered long term.

The rainfall figures and averages can be obtained at:-

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi

Some yearly rainfall figures across the state of Victoria highlighting the amount of rainfall received from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2008 at commonly known locations.

City / Town                Rainfall received in 2008       Average yearly rainfall

Albury - Wodonga        494.6 mm on 105 days         605.5 mm on 103.7 days
Ballarat                      486.6 mm on 159 days         695.2 mm on 166 days
Bendigo                      385.8 mm on 121 days         485.9 mm on 105.9 days
Echuca                      370 mm on 94 days              427.3 mm on 88 days
Melbourne                  449.2 mm on 129 days          651.6 mm on 146 days
Mildura                      201.4 mm on 60 days            286.2 mm on 71.9 days
Sale                          445 mm on 153 days            602.1 mm on 141 days
Shepparton                432.6 mm on 101 days          419.9 mm on 93.9 days
Swan Hill                    230.8 mm on 102 days         298.3 mm on 72.8 days
Wangaratta                488.6 mm on 102 days         632.9 mm on 113.2 days
Warrnambool              721.6 mm on 189 days         630.4 mm on 171.7 days

Barring the south west coastal strip, much of the state is still experiencing rainfall deficiencies and there has been no proper long term recovery from the drought. As shown, most of the state has experienced below average rainfall for 2008, some places and regions more so than others.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Back again after a long hiatis - been trying to enjoy work again. I have noticed quite a few forecasts in Melbourne area of possible thunderstorms and showers for yesterday (11/3/09) through to Saturday (14/3/09) - but so far, not one of these storms has reached the outer east region of metro-Melbourne.

Maybe the moisture hasn't made it through to us yet, but the humidity has been relatively high (temp yest reached 30deg C with 75% rh).

Still, I wait in hope for convection to arrive - need some pic opportunities.

Big Pete
(going back into hybernation)

ps - Interesting landspout from Ayr region. looks similar to the Geelong one from a year or two ago.

[Peter J]

Well, all hail to my new camera - still yet to be christened with a good storm pic - but in saying so, I was looking at the BoM forecast for Melbourne, and the long weekend coming up, might actually yield such a good opportunity - the forecast for sat sun and mon at this stage is possible thunderstorms!!!

Time to start testing....

Big Pete