Topic: Lets Look at the other side: VIC, SA, TAS day to day weather

[Peter J]

Just been looking at the BoM forecast area on their website and the WZ site, and it looks like country Vic might get some much needed benefits from the trough and low that has been flooding parts of NSW and much of inland QLD. There is a prediction that Northern and Western Vic may get some storms too (pity my car's fuel level is so low and fuel prices are too high here (Vic avg $1.48 per litre) otherwise I might look to chase a few to get some pics worthy of this site). I know how much it is needed here, and this weekend and early next week might provide 15-20mm in areas that desp need it - including the farmers of the N and NW regions like Mildura and Echuca, etc. And maybe, just maybe a bit more than .5 mm might fall at home too - been driving in Mt Evelyn just 10km east of me and the grasses are turning that yellow-brown colour again - signs of a bad fire danger ahead.

Big Pete.

[Harley Pearman]

Lets look to the other side - 2nd Post - 19/1/2008

Hello

Further to my previous post here, I have been thoroughly watching this current monsoonal low as it has drifted south, south west through Queensland, New South Wales and into Victoria (16 to 19 January 2008).

As I previously stated, much of eastern Australia has had some good soaking rains. Good rains have also fallen from this current system but south west New South Wales and Victoria has missed out on the good falls again.

This is another example where the system has weakened by the time it has reached Victoria. Rainfall totals reached over 100 mm around the Charleville region (Queensland) including outlying areas and there has been some flooding as well.

In northern New South Wales, rainfalls have reached 60 to 66 mm around Cobar and regions (By 7.30 am 19/1/2008) but by the time it has reached southern New South Wales, places around Albury and regions has received a paltry 6 mm (By 7.30 am 19/1/2008). Rainfalls across this region are significantly lighter when compared to more northern places.

The system lost its strength and the cloud was more patchy in southern NSW when compared to cloud cover across eastern and northern NSW. This is another case where a significant cloud system did not penetrate too well into the drought affected area of Victoria and South West New South and it provides another example in which rainfall patterns could be changing.

In the past, I remember these cloud systems reaching all the way down into southern New South Wales delivering summer falls of at least 20 to 30 millimetres.

The CSIRO has suggested that some parts of southern NSW has lost the equivalent of 1 years supply of rain in the last two years. What I have seen occur over the last three days could add some weight to that.

Pete, your statements have truth to them and if you have been monitoring this current cloud and rain system like I have, then you would see the pattern that I have observed.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Definetly have, Harley.

It has been raining lightly here on and off for the last 16 hrs or so, but only 5mm rain in the gauge as of 4pm today (19/1) AEDT. It is true that the system from the north has given us some of the rain, and it is very welcome here. But, as you have pointed out, it is very weak compared to the rainfall in NSW & QLD. Who knows, maybe our turn in Vic is still coming (for a drought breaker).

Big Pete

[Peter J]

Got a healthy 22mm of rain overnight in Mooroolbark - no storms, but a few heavy rain patches did come in after dark - about 1130pm or so a good downpour came in. Great to see the rain here. And the temp has dropped markedly over the last 2-3 days. Still cloudy as of 12pm 20/1, and there has been some light rain/drizzle around - but cooler throughout.

Big Pete

[Peter J]

For those interested in Vic weather - it has settled down here after a good weekend of rain - Sunday showed 92mm in Managlor (near Seymour) - a near record single-day January rainfall for the area, and a healthier level for the Northern Vic region.

According to BoM, there is a trough approaching in the next 2 days that will unsettle Vic weather, and may provide some opportunities for the storm chasers here for a reasonable chase. That is, if the tropical heat and moisture come through - that occurred last time on Dec 22 last year.

We shall all wait and see (like we do with any storm),

Big Pete

[Peter J]

From the vantage point of my home, I can see good convection forming to the E-SE, and plenty of nice cumulus clouds forming from the NW. This looks like a promising sign for the forecasted possible storms over the next three-four days here.

Big Pete

[Peter J]

Jan 29 2008.

Nice rain shower came in to cool off a close to 30c day. But not much more than 2mm fell. No storms here in O/E Melbourne. But at least we are getting some rain, even if it is 1-2mm at a time. Waiting for the Autumn rains around April - May. It has been close to a normal summer here. Temps for the last month have hovered above average for most of January, with about 6 days above 32c. Our water catchments here since Dec have fallen from 39.9% down to 37.5%. Also some talk on the TV about Vic needing rain of biblical proportions for us to not need water restrictions.

Big Pete
(back to work tomorrow after 6 weeks of boredom)

[Peter J]

Well... Finally a decent dumping of showery (but cold) rain here in Melbourne! Yay!
I checked the rain gauge here in Mooroolbark at about 12.30 (just after the main rainband had left), and it showed we had 21mm in about 6.5 hrs (since the time i left for the morning half of my shift at work). Just what we really needed here!!!!

I have enjoyed the posts of some of those northside from me. Hope the storms haven't caused too much damage there.

Keep Safe

Big Pete

[Mike]

Even the cold fronts that move across the Bight from the west and deep lows from Antarctica miss Victoria - perhaps it's to do with the systems just being too far south to have any decent effect on that state or the influence of stronger high pressure systems with dominant wind flows nudging them out?  Melbourne always seems to get decent storms when troughs swing through - but Victoria is renowned for it's unpredicable seasonal weather!

[Peter J]

That is what makes Melbourne well known - the four-seasons-in-one-day effect. And mostly it happens between late spring and early autumn. Although the last 10 years or so have been more drought-affected, the weather still does have its unpredictability here.

Big Pete

[Peter J]

And usually in Winter and around late Dec, some of the lows actually arrive on our doorstep here. But so many during the seasonal region depicted in my prior post. Also it is NW, North Central, North Country and North East districts that have a greater chance in Vic in seeing explosive SC's and the odd EF0-EF2 tornado. (most end up being gustnadoes and landspouts that occur closer to the coastal south).

Big Pete

[Mike]

Not being up to speed with the regularity of droughts in other states, but is this 10 year cycle you speak of a regular thing or is this something totally new to Vic and caused by the global weather patterns all being off-kilter of late?

Mike

[Peter J]

Mike,

From memory, weather patterns in Vic normally cycle at about 7 years duration. But since the global warming and climate changes have been occuring, the drought systems have been longer and harsher. Also the mean temp here has gone up by at least 1-1.5deg c in the last 10 or so years, and the weather has changed more because of the rise. I'm finding that there are less 24hr periods of rain fall now than there was when I was growing up, the rain fall events generally only last 2 hrs max these days - with some exceptions. Also the patterns you described, with lows and cold fronts sliding further south are becoming more common - I have also found the country has has the weather systems move southwards more so in the last 10-15 years.
 The clouds are higher in the sky these days also. When I was pre-teen, it was common for Melb to have low-cloud events and rainfalls/drizzle/light rain as common, but in recent times, most cloud structures tend to be higher - leads to larger rain drops during rain events. The recent rain event here (a few days ago) - we had rain drops falling to size of about 2cm (consistent with heavy thunderstorm rain drops).

Hope this helps you out a bit. Remember - most of the info I give is my anecdotal evidence, not necessarily the BoM's views.

Big Pete

[Jimmy Deguara]

Big Pete,

You will find the patterns across most of Australia would have been different for an extended period of time. The drought was prolonged as well and that means that the usual patterns we remembered where at least sufficient rainfall occurred did not occur. Even thunderstorm patterns in Sydney for the past so many years I think dating back to at least the early to mid 1990s or even the late 1980s were far more intense than in more previous years. Admittadely, the pas month or two saw the return of more local severe thunderstorms in western Sydney - some aras would have experienced 3 or 4 severe thunderstorms in the past 2 months which from a consistency is a decent return period.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Harley Pearman]

Lets look to the other side - Sunday 3 February 2008

Further to this discussion and my previous posts, I am identifying a recent trend in which rainfalls seem to be returning to southern New South Wales and large parts of northern Victoria which have been hit hard by the recent drought.

Some of the rains associated with La Nina now seem to be getting into the drought ravaged regions of South West New South Wales and northern Victoria. It has taken a long while or longer than it did with previous La Nina's.

With the previous rain event of mid January, rainfalls topped 50 to 70 mm across portions of northern Victoria and southern NSW and other centres had 30 to 40 mm. This was followed by a further 10 to 20 mm on 31/1/2008 in some centres.

Further more rain and storms is occurring on 3/2/2008 in some of these areas, especially around Corowa. The return of the rains is in stark comparison when compared to early 2007.

It is good to see this rain but it indicates that this La Nina has taken longer to penetrate inland than previous La Nina's. This could suggest that La Nina's in future could lose their impact in inland SW NSW and northern Victoria.


Harley Pearman