Topic: Lets Look at the other side: VIC, SA, TAS day to day weather

[Michael Bath]

Better get down near the coast - this is the VIC BoM forecast that is available to emergency services only.


THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

A cold airmass aloft is crossing the State today. The centre of the cold pool will migrate from west central Victoria this morning to reach the northeast later today. There will be a risk of thunderstorms along the path of this airmass, particularly where flow is onshore near the coast and dewpoints can remain higher. Some thunderstorms may become organised and severe on the back edge of the cold pool where shear is maximised, producing brief waterspouts or tornadoes near the coast and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere in the risk area thunderstorms will be brief. Hail is likely with any thunderstorm which develops, however due to limited buoyancy, only small hail is likely.

[Harley Pearman]

For the past 24 hours 9 am 27/4/2008 to 9 am 28/4/2008, rainfalls tapered off especially in northern Victoria. While some further very light falls from showers fell over some northern areas, the best falls fell in southern and mountain districts.

The best falls were 26 mm at Cape Otway, 23 mm at Weeaproinah, 21 mm at Biggara and 20 mm at Apollo Bay and Forrest for this period. Other falls were lighter and most were very light.

I saw television reports of snow at some mountain resorts in NE Victoria as well.

While not related to Victoria, but worth a mention, the cold air mass pushed into NSW as well and some light snow fell around Mt Canobolas near Orange (Central Tablelands) which has turned out to be a rare April snow event.

Temperatures were well below average and it is a rare event for the month of April to see a maximum temperature of 12 degrees at places such as Albury and 11 degrees at some nearby areas. Maximum temperatures in NW Victoria were around 15 to 17 degrees Celsius. Many places scored between 11 and 13 degrees Celsius and some areas were colder.

This event can be regarded as the first winter cold spell for southern NSW and Victoria for 2008.

At around 1 pm 28/4/2008, I observed on radar some moderate shower cells (Quite possibly cold weather thunder showers) moving NE across the Dandenongs but these were not penetrating too far inland before weakening.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST...
...some thunderstorms may become organised and severe on the back edge of the cold pool where shear is maximised, producing brief waterspouts or tornadoes near the coast and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere in the risk area thunderstorms will be brief. Hail is likely with any thunderstorm which develops, however due to limited buoyancy, only small hail is likely.

Good forecast, but none eventuated near Melb coast - maybe more towards Bass Strait may have been some events, but the only storm was the night before last, and that was inland. And it was very brief.

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

Coldest April day for parts of NE and Northern Victoria since 1960

Following the cold outbreak across the state of Victoria, I have read an article in the Border Mail 29/4/2008 stating that large areas of northern and north east Victoria endured its coldest April weather since 22 April 1960, especially when some centres recorded maximum temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius on Sunday.

To make matters worse overnight minimums early 29/4/2008 in many centres fell to near freezing such as Shepparton 0.8 Celsius, Echuca 0.7 Celsius, Albury 0.6 Celsius and Wagga Wagga in southern NSW for comparison, 0.5 Degrees Celsius.

Most centres in this region endured this type of overnight cold.

The very cold minimum April temperatures were a result of clear skies, maximum cooling and heat loss overnight and calm conditions following the passage of the cold front.

Harley Pearman

[Harley Pearman]

Below average rainfall and drought - Victoria - April 2008

Continuing this topic of drought and rainfall (2008) for Victoria, it is advised that the month of April 2008 was drier in many areas across the state than during March 2008 and rainfall deficiencies have worsened.

A report by BOM (May 2 2008) shows long term rainfall deficiencies over a two year period from May 1 2006 to April 30 2008 steadily worsening. The worst affected areas is still the Dandenongs east of Melbourne and in a band stretching from Melbourne NE through North East Victoria and into southern and south west New South Wales roughly north and west of the Great Dividing Range. This area includes the northern plains of the state. Rainfall deficiencies is still prevalent in most of western Victoria and north west Victoria around Swan Hill and Mildura.

An area just to the east of Melbourne is still classified as "Lowest on record". Severe rainfall deficiencies still covers many areas and farming regions surrounding urban centres such as Bendigo, Shepparton, Echuca, Albury, Wangaratta and Benalla.

These regions and others suffered through another month of below average rainfalls and so far Autumn has been dry with long periods between rainfall events. It is worthy to note that the drought affected regions have been receiving one rainfall event a month for March and April but the event is overall producing falls that are patchy and below average.

Only Gippsland is satisfactory and out of the danger.

The rest of the state urgently needs above average soaking rain to eliminate the deficits and to replenish moisture and water in dams and soils.

A full report of the current drought situation across the state is available in the Media Section of the Bureau of Meteorology web site which also has links to other web sites concerning the drought and weather specifically for Victoria.

Harley Pearman
Posted on: 02 May 2008, 07:29:27 PMAnother big dry forecast May 10 2008:

Continuing on my discussion of the drought gripping inland SE NSW and Victoria, I have come across a frightening article in the Sydney Morning Herald titled "Another Big Dry forecast for irrigators".

It is stated that Autumn has seen a return to near record low river inflows and history has proved that a dry autumn usually means that the rest of the year will be dry.

The La Nina weather pattern brought sometimes flooding rains to parts of NSW and Queensland over summer but there is now suggestion that eastern Australia was drifting back towards an El Nino where dry conditions dominate.

It is unlikely farmers will see the extensive rains needed to cancel out the deficiencies of the past 6 years and refill dams especially in the southern half of the basin (Victoria and inland NSW).

In the Autumn of 1989,a La Nina delivered an average 267 mm of rain across the basin but so far this autumn, there has been an average of 30 mm.

Dr Coughlan has stated that we had a La Nina but this time, we are not getting the turnaround in rainfall associated with La Nina.

Wendy Craik (Murray Darling Basin Commission) has suggested that climate change is besetting the southern basin (Victoria / southern NSW) far sooner than forecast and greatly reduced flows could be a permanent state of affairs.

Dams are now at their lowest level in the Snowy Mountains since construction and permission has been granted to expand cloud seeding experiments and programs designed to increase snowfalls and inflows into dams.

Sydney Morning Herald 10/5/2008 in smh.com.au

Comments:

This is what I have been observing as well based on rainfall data. Rainfall is well down despite the recent La Nina and there are large areas in Victoria and southern NSW that have not recovered.

In addition, cloud seeding has been occurring on a limited scale in the higher areas although I am not sure how successful that has been.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Harley

This is one area I will agree with you on. The "big dry" here is getting worse, even though the surface temp here is colder than average. We (Vic and SA's) definetly need more rain, and more follow up rain to even break the drought here. At last report on weatherchannel (Foxtel) showed 96% of Vic is still drought affected and 98% of SA as well. I think the dry will continue for some time to come, with only sporadic rainfall coming in during winter at this stage. This depends on the antarctic cold-fronts and where they make landfall.

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

Victoria - May and Autumn Rainfall patterns 2008

Looking at the following websites and various rainfall maps:-

Department of Primary Industries 2008 (Victoria).
Bureau of Meteorology.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi.

It is generally accepted that May 2008 was the driest May in record for much of Australia which has resulted in a continuation of many rainfall deficiencies.

The Murray Darling Basin (When rainfall is averaged across various centres) has just recorded the fourth driest Autumn on record. In much of this area, the continuing dry pattern is without precedent. Additionally, following a wet summer in many eastern areas, Autumn overall was allot drier.

Large areas of Australia continue to suffer rainfall deficiencies. Southern Australia including much of Victoria has had a poor start to the southern wet season.

In Victoria, May 2008 was mostly dry except for western and central areas where near normal rains occurred. Overall, Autumn was drier than average.

Rainfall in many inland areas and northern parts of the state were 40 to 50% of averages only. Regional analysis - Department of Primary Industries (Summary Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria June 5 - 2008):-

Mallee - Had 14 to 20 mm mid May and subsoil is variable but minimal. Rain needed.

Wimmera - Had 20 mm mid May and a dry winter outlook is not good. Need rain.

North Central - All areas need good rain.

Northern Irrigation Areas - Poor rains have lead to poor soil moisture.

North East - Many areas have not had adequate rain for a break. Some greening has occurred in a few areas but rain is needed.

East Gippsland - Ok at the moment but good rains needed.

West and south Gippsland - Ok at the moment but more rain needed.

Port Phillip - Need more rain.

South West - Need follow up rain.

The consensus is - The state of Victoria needs a good rain event.

Recent media headlines I found:-

Eternal drought - Border Mail 10/5/2008. There is no sign at the moment that the drought will end and some are starting to say it will be more permanent.

Drought could get worse - Sunraysia Daily (Mildura). The southern Murray Darling is in deep strife with an increasing likelihood that drought and water crises will extend to the end off the year. 

NSW Drought

The figures for May shows that 48.4% of the state has slipped into drought and another 23.6% is marginal. The whole inland SW portion including Wagga Wagga, Albury, Griffith, Ivanhoe to Broken Hill is in drought which extends into Victoria.

Victoria - Rainfall anomalies 1 December 2007 to 31 May 2008

The Bureau of Meteorology has changed its website in relation to obtaining data on rainfall and now it is much easier to work out average anomalies using a series of maps.

Northern Victoria - Rainfall was down on average by 50 mm.
Central areas - Rainfall was down on average by 50 to 100 mm.
Gippsland - Rainfall was down on average by up to 200 mm.
West and North West - Rainfall was down on average by 50 mm.
Melbourne's east - Rainfall was down on average by up to 200 mm.
Melbourne - Rainfall was on average down by 50 to 100 mm.

There appears to have been a minor recovery for some areas during summer however during Autumn this has been lost.

Victoria - 3 month anomalies - March to May 2008

The eastern half of the state is down on average by 100 to 200 mm.
Central areas is down on average by 50 to 100 mm.
The western area is faring better and down on average by only 25 to 50 mm.

For NSW - Rainfall anomalies 1 December 2007 to 31 May 2008

The SW and Riverina - Down on average by 50 mm.
Far west - Down on average by 100 to 200 mm.
South West New South Wales - Down by 50 to 100 mm.

It appears that some of the more affected regions came close to receiving average rains for a short time during summer but the regions are slipping back to drier conditions.

The northern part of the state including the east coast clearly had above average rains.

For the three month period 1 March to 31 May 2008 for NSW:-

Other than for the mid north coast, rainfall was down. However, the inland and slopes had rainfall deficiencies of 100 to 200 mm, western areas down by 50 to 100 mm and the far west was down by 25 to 50 mm.

It is clear where the rainfall deficiencies continue to occur. Rainfall models for the next three months only indicate neutral conditions for the Murray Darling Basin including much of Victoria.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

It certainly has been dryer than normal - also by this stage of the year, there is normally some snowfall in the Alpine regions - but none at this stage to start the ski season.

The fog has lingered on a little bit longer than normal, but it may be a good sign that some areas of SA are getting rainfall (5-10 in metro and 20mm or so in regionals) today and tomorrow  as there are places there that are crying out for it. I know here in VIC, the drought is becoming a long-term event, even though some pockets of moderate rainfall do seem to be occurring each month in isolated amounts. My gauge showed 5mm of rainfall for yesterday - most of which came in a 2hr period during fog and drizzle. If we (VIC) don't get reasonable rainfall during winter and early spring - next summer will be the greatest fire risk season since 1982-83, and we all know what happened in that season!

Big Pete

[Robert1984]

If we (VIC) don't get reasonable rainfall during winter and early spring - next summer will be the greatest fire risk season since 1982-83, and we all know what happened in that season!

I got a really wierd and uneasy feeling that this coming summer we'll probably see the February Dragon come out of hiding after 26 years and cause mass destruction & chaos like it did in 1983 cause i had a dream a couple weeks back of me fighting a massive bush fire on the back of a truck so maybe that was the warning sign

[Richary]

I was pretty worried (as were the authorities) about the last 2 summers in South Australia. Luckily whatever started near Adelaide they managed to get on top of quickly before things got out of control.

[Peter J]

Hi all,

Been a bit wet here in Melbourne for the last couple of days - and bitterly cold winds have been blasting through as well. My home raingauge has a showing of 22mm since fri arvo, not bad for now. But the wind chill factor has been quite strong - dropping air temps to below 10c. Even though the base temp from BoM has been hovering 12-13c. Good to hear of snow falling in the Alpine region.

Weather has cleared today (sunday), and looking forward to more rain later on this week.

Big Pete

Posted on: 15-06-2008, 14:28:16Seems as if the wet weather has finally rested here this weekend. A healthy 15mm has fallen in parts of metro-Melbourne in the last 2-3 hrs - including a good heavy shower whilst I was driving from Mum's place to Dad's place (Mooroolbark to Box Hill). It is good to see some winter rainfall finally making it to the eastern part of Melbourne. And since the rains have returned, the greenness in the grass has returned also.

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

Drought statements and June Rainfall for Victoria 2008

Seems like there has been some improvement in parts of Victoria during the month while other areas continue to go backwards.

Generally during June, northern areas across the Murray Darling Basin has fared badly with average rainfalls of between 10 and 25 mm although there are pockets that received 1 - 5 mm at best.

Some higher areas of the NE ranges scored 50 to 100 mm in the form of rain and snow and two very small pockets received 100 to 200 millimetres.

Parts of Gippsland was very dry receiving 5 to 10 mm.

The south west received between 25 and 50 mm and the Dandenongs fared reasonably well scoring 50 to 100 mm.

Hence while rainfall was depleted north of the ranges and in areas of Gippsland, there were some areas that received helpful rains.

Monthly Anomalies:

NE and Murray including Goulburn and into the Mallee - Rainfall down by 50 mm.
NW - Rainfall down by between 10 and 25 mm.
SW - Despite helpful rains, rainfall was still down by between 25 and 50 mm.
Melbourne - Rainfall down by between 10 and 25 mm.

There is some short term improvement in some areas but the north continues to miss out.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours@variabl

Three monthly anomalies April, May and June 2008

Severe rainfall anomalies now persist in the north east and a pocket in East Gippsland is classified as "Lowest on Record". There are still many areas of serious deficiencies about but it appears that some June rains in some areas have been helpful.

The official drought statement shows that from March to June 2008 (4 month period), serious to severe rainfall deficiencies covers much of the state. A pocket in eastern Victoria (Gippsland) is classed as "Lowest on record".

From June 2007 through to the end of June 2008 (13 Months) it is evident that much of Victoria received average summer rainfall and in a few areas, above average but a dry winter in 2007 and a dry autumn in 2008 has resulted in Central and western areas now being in Decile 1 for the period.

From 1 June 2007 to 30 June 2008, west and central Victoria is suffering serious to severe rainfall deficiency.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media-releases/climate/drought/;

Excellent Sydney Morning Herald reinforces this and dated 6/7/2008 titled:-

"Warning of Severe Drought Just years apart"

at http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/more-dry-years/2008/07/06/12

I found a useful article on the drought affecting NSW but will place this in the General Weather NSW/QLD/NT as it relates mostly to the drought north of the Murray River.

Harley Pearman

[Peter J]

Hi all,

It has been a while since i posted here, as i have been on holidays (yay!)

Since the start of the financial year (1st July 2008), there has been only 14mm of rain in the gauge at home. Even though Monday 7th was a wet one - producing most of the rainfall to occur.

It has been very cold here, though without any snowfall or hail. Temps in the last week have started to look more like typical winter temps - below 12degC in some places. Here at Mooroolbark, the temps in the last couple of days have struggled to even reach 10degC - in fact, yesterday it only reached 6degC, with a light dusting of snow occurring on Mt Dandenong (just 4 kms east-south-east of here).

Big Pete
(rugging up)

[Peter J]

Just a keeping-up-to-date post:

Mooroolbark VIC for first 15 days of July = 26mm  - near the average for July.

Big Pete

[Peter J]

G'day again - long time away.
Been struck with the dreaded "Carlton" cold - a cold/flu type bug that affects melbournians like beer affects alcoholics.

the chill factor here has been very cold - and the last 3 mornings out in the NE-OE suburban areas of Melb have been extremely cold - in fact going below 0degC (-2,-3,-2). The good news from all this cold is that Melb's rainfall for this month will beat the average rainfall level for the first time in months.

Rugging up under the doona (cough...arrchoooo....)

Big Pete