Topic: NSW/VIC Severe Storms: 30-31 Jan 2008

[David C]

Things are primed for rather explosive development during the afternoon along the ranges south of Sydney. Deep layer wind fields are on the marginal side however I would not rule out the odd supercell today particularly the further south one goes -- definitely worth a chase. I will pin my hopes on getting out of here by 4:00pm and a late start to a sustained storm across Sydney's south west outskirts, which together = unlikely.

Have fun!

[Michael Bath]

A couple of comments posted by Harald Richter of BoM earlier...

If you have the luxury (and inclination) of monitoring convection in
Australia, the SE
corner of NSW has begun to produce.  A leftmover is plowing through
Michelago
(50 km S of Canberra).  A second significant storm is struggling against
the cap
W of Cobargo in an otherwise potent supercell environment.   

Harald  (30 Jan 08, 3z or 2pm EDT)

and...

The dominant Michelago supercell seems to have gone up on the
boundary between a 32/13 NW parcel and more easterly flow to
the south.  As such cold outflow might threaten its survival in the
medium
to longer term. It did sport a hook-like appendage on the NW flank, a
pronounced forward flank V-notch and echo overhang on the N flank.

A better storm environment, apart from a strong cap, offers the 30/21
Bega parcel of the South Coastal plains.  If a storm, such as the
currently (3:50z) severe core W of Bodalla, can capitalise on that
parcel, we might see something bigger yet...

Harald (3:50z or 2:50pm EDT)

[Shaun Galman]

Hi guys (it's surely been a while, but very glad to back posting!)

The radar and LT are looking superb today for anywhere in a line south of Cobar! Sydney is in the firing line yet again by the looks and I cant wait to see some great storm reports and photos from today's events!

It looks like the chances for my area, Upper Western, are increasing from tomorrow onwards through the rest of this week? We have one nice looking cell sitting to our south, out towards Walgett, with a nice backsheared (or backshorn) anvil and flanking line, that is about all I can see from this far away.

Best of luck to all who are out chasing today, take care if your amongst the masses of lightning activity! (wish I was there with you lol!)

Cheers and regards,
Shauno

[David C]

check out Canberra radar - a large storm, probably HP (Jarrel Tx style propogating NW!).
You would expect this storm to run into stable air; ie rain-cooled air from earlier convection and also it will loose out on insolation due to the enormous anvils of storms in progress to the NW - ie it probably wont last too much longer, but would surely be an impressive sight out there for anyone in no-mans's land.

[Richary]

That storm currently north of Braidwood looks pretty intense and over a reasonable size area. Have a look at the Canberra radar loop between 0600-0630.

Unluckily the Sydney ones are all dying as soon as they leave the mountains. A fair bit of activity up there but as soon as it hits the plains nothing. Just had a rumble of thunder here near Parramatta but nothing on the radar. Just hot and sticky here :-(

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

I headed out today but the chase was riddled with mishaps so I consequently turned back.

I aimed for the Marulan region but hit the traffic due to stupid "daytime" road works - resurfacing. That wasted 20 minutes and got me onto a decaying storm. I turned around and aimed for a possibility of the activity at Lithgow. It also looked spent and the traffic lined up ahead of me made the trip really not worth the effort. So I headed back home.

Here are a couple of pictures:

Mittagong


Back home:


It seems like the storm intensities are abating - widespread activity.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[wol]

Some nice mammatus cloud over Blacktown around 4:30pm. 
Sorry about the quality, my phone is all I had with me while riding home on the motorbike.

Been watching the radar but it all seems to be fizzing out.

[Peter J]

Hi All,

Glad for me to be back at work, even though it was a humid and warm-to-hot day in Nunawading (Eastern Melbourne). As of 6.28pm, a severe thunderstorm warning was issued by the BoM for large hail, flash flooding, and damaging winds for the Alpine region, the North East region, and the East Gippsland region.
I believe the situation in these areas of the ranges will probably harbour the same sorts of storms that the ranges in NSW and ACT have been experiencing. My older brother lives in Wodonga, and normally he lets me know about weather in his region, but he's out of contact at the moment. It is his area that has part of the warning for tonight. Hopefully, he can report to me about what the storms are doing in his part of the world, so I can relay to all who are interested. NE Melbourne has had no rain, but it is sticky and humid here. Storms are not clearly visible tonight due to the hazy cloud lingering - unfortunately, there is only a tiny bit of a small anvil showing through the haze - not enough to get a decent pic.

Happy hunting

Big Pete

[Harley Pearman]

Hello

The storm near Braidwood storm looked intense. I was watching numerous radar loops of it from 3 pm to 5 pm and it seemed to wax and wane over a period of two hours, at least while I was watching it. It was not moving fast but I noted that it was warned of large hail, very heavy rain and damaging wind.

Interestingly on one radar image, the storm was structured so that the most intense portion was oriented NW (facing to the Earths equator) while the lighter rain shield was oriented to the SE (towards the Earth's south pole), suggesting that this storm was well organised for a while.

Harley Pearman

[Ursula]

Hi there,

there is a severe storm heading most likely 'just' south of where I am, my daughter said the lightening is severe about 20km south of where I am, and thunder is rolling, so I am off, put my plants in the nice pots out of harms way

I missed the earlier on in Michelago, it went south to the coast from here.

[Dave Nelson]

Hi all,
          excellent afternoon chase to the mountains after finishing my last job.

initially there were 3 cells I observed going up over the mountains early afternoon.
the nthrn most one was the largest. But during my trip up into the mnts. a 4th cell
went up on the nth side of the large nthrn most cell

  Got to Mt Piddington lookout ( a few km b4 Mt Victoria) ~ 3pm in time to settle in
and await the onslaught. At the time of my arrival there, the storm cell was still
~ 10 - 15k to the west and was electrically very active with many strobing CG's and
also many embedded flashes.

There was a good green colour to the cell   and eventually the gustfront arrived with
gusty wind rain and some hail

Also photo'ed that nice mammatus on the way up through Faulconbridge area.


Cheers
Dave N

[Michael Bath]

Cobar received up to 102mm from overnight storms including 46mm in one hour according to the current severe thunderstorm warning.

Were certainly a few impressive cells on radar yesterday in Southeast NSW yesterday.

There were storms in the Northern Rivers yesterday but pathetic weak things bunching up against the ranges in a slack easterly steering flow.

[James]

Today should be big! BOM sounding over Sydney this morning had LI's of -9 with what looks to be some impressive CAPE (3000+ guestimate) great for explosive updrafts! Looks like there may be some wind shear this afternoon which should make for some longer lasting storms and possible organisation. Tops should reach 40,000+ on the bigger cells too.

Add to that a southerly moving up the coast during the afternoon.... the possibilities are very interesting!

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi James,

What a sultry day it was today or should I say still is at this time. A major storm has exploded near Wollongong and backbuilding activity stretches in a line west of Oakdale. Another line is approaching slowly from western parts of the Central Tablelands.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[scottme]

I can see the base of a storm with quite strong inflow moving over Canterbury right now out my back window (18:30). Looks like a bit of a left mover on radar. Lots of CG lightning.