Topic: Tropical Cyclone Neville, Tropical Cyclone Magda & Tropical Cyclone Olga : Jan 2010

[Colin Maitland]

This week could see the developemnent of the first tropical low in the Coral Sea for the 2009/10 season. A low is expected to form near 15S and 150 East on Thursday morning.

[Colin Maitland]

The top end of Australia has come alive as the monsoonal system is making its presence felt.

There is a very high possibility that we may have 2 active cyclones over the next week. One of WA and the other over the Gulf.

The latest from BOM regarding all sectors on the 15/01/10 is:

1. Northern Region and Gulf of Carpenteria

Potential Cyclones:

A developing tropical low, 1003 hPa, is located within the monsoon trough in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria, near 11.5S 138.5 E, about 200 kilometres to the east northeast of Nhulunbuy, at 9:30 am CST. The low has been slowly drifting east northeast and is expected to remain slow moving over the weekend while deepening in the northern Gulf of Carpentaria.
The low may start to move southeast towards Cape York Peninsular as the monsoon westerlies strengthen over the Arafura Sea and north Gulf of Carpentaria later on Sunday and early next week, and may develop into a tropical cyclone if it
remains over water.

2. Coral Sea

Potential Cyclones:

The monsoon trough extends from a low in the northwest Gulf of Carpentaria to a low over the Coral Sea near 15S 152E. The low in the Coral Sea is expected to move southeast.  


3. WA


Potential Cyclones:
A low north of the Pilbara coast is expected to gradually develop in the next few days as it moves to the west. The low is not expected to produce gales during Friday but may reach cyclone intensity on Saturday or more likely on
Sunday by which stage it should be more than 500 km north northwest of Exmouth. It is not expected to directly impact the coast during the outlook period.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Saturday    :Moderate
Sunday      :High
Monday      :High

[Mathew Townsend]

IDDP0002
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1 
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST [11:30 am EST] Saturday 16 January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Pormpuraaw to Mapoon.

At 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be
210 kilometres northeast of Nhulunbuy and
415 kilometres west northwest of Weipa and
moving south southeast at 2 kilometres per hour.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 36 to 48 hours.

There is the possibility of a Tropical Cyclone developing but GALES are not
expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop
later.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 am CST [7:00 am EST]:
.Centre located near...... 11.1 degrees South 138.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southeast at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Saturday 16 January [5:30 pm EST
Saturday 16 January].

[Colin Maitland]

The latest charts show the low moving over the Cape and into the Coral Sea. There is still a cyclone watch in  place for the tropical low.

[Colin Maitland]

Last night the tropical low that formed in the Gulf of Carpenteria crossed Cape York Peninsula. The low is now in the Coral Sea, although it is not a "tropical low" at this stage, the Bureau is monitoring the system and believe there is a possibility it could generate into a cyclone tonight or tomorrow.

The ABC reports : There is a severe weather warning for damaging winds and flash flooding for northern Cape York, and the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands.

BOM forecaster Brett Harrison says the low could cross the coast as a cyclone later this week.

"The models do suggest that it will intensify further and likely to be a tropical cyclone sometime overnight tonight," he said.

"The current thinking is that it will move very slowly, generally towards the east, and there's a chance that it may move closer towards the coast as we head towards the later part of the week."


Col

[Colin Maitland]

It has taken a few day longer than first anticipated, but we now have 2 active cyclones in Australian waters, cyclone Magda of the WA coast and Cyclone Neville of the QLD coast. Both are Cat 1 systems.

Data on cyclone Neville form BOM


TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:06am EST on Thursday the 21st of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Melville to
Cooktown.

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Coen to Cape Melville,
and from Cooktown to Cape Tribulation.

At 7:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Neville, Category 1 was estimated to be
200 kilometres east of Cape Flattery and 220 kilometres east northeast of
Cooktown and was near stationary.

TROPICAL CYCLONE Neville, CATEGORY 1, is expected to remain near stationary off
the far north Queensland coast over the next 24 hours as it slowly intensifies.

GALES with damaging gusts to 95 km/hr may develop on the coast between Cape
Melville and Cooktown during the next 24 hours.

People between Cape Melville and Cooktown should take precautions and listen to
the next advice at 11 am. If you are unsure about precaution to be taken,
information is available from your local government or local State Emergency
Service.

People between Coen and Cape Melville, and also those between Cooktown and Cape
Tribulation should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone
threat increases.  If you are unsure about the actions to be taken, information
is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Neville at 7:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 147.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... near stationary
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour and slowly INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

[Paul D]

Details of 2nd system Magda off WA coast

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 6:05 am WST on Thursday, 21 January 2010
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Kalumburu to Cockatoo Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Wyndham to Kalumburu and
Cockatoo Island to Beagle Bay

At 5:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Magda, Category 1 was estimated to be
315 kilometres northwest of Kuri Bay and
330 kilometres north northwest of Cockatoo Island and
moving southeast at 12 kilometres per hour towards the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Magda has developed off the northwest Kimberley coast and is
expected to intensify as it approaches the coast. Gales with gusts to 100
kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between Kalumburu and Cockatoo
Island tonight as Magda approaches. Gales may extend as far east as Wyndham and
as far west as Beagle Bay during Friday.

There is a significant risk that by Friday Magda will have intensified into a
Severe Tropical Cyclone and be located close to the Kimberley coast. Hence there
is the risk of very destructive winds between Kalumburu and Cape Leveque on
Friday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Coastal communities in the Kimberley between Wyndham and Beagle Bay should
listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Magda at 5:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 13.3 degrees South 122.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southeast at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 120 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 992 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Thursday 21 January.

[Carlos E]

I must say I'm surprised Neville formed at all given the BoM's predictions for the system were not at all on the probable site.

Also interesting to note that yet another Tropical Low is located near the Solomon Islands, and this could develop further in the Coral Sea in the long term. Magda, I hope it doesn't harass the coast like Laurence did.

[Colin Maitland]

Also interesting to note that yet another Tropical Low is located near the Solomon Islands, and this could develop further in the Coral Sea in the long term.

That could be an interesting scenario if the Solomon Island low deepens as it moves closer and forms into a cyclone as well. JTWC image of the low and cyclones

[Colin Maitland]

Cyclone Neville lost intensity yesterday morning and and was downgraded to a tropical low. It is expected that Neville will regenerate and become a cyclone once again crossing the coast around Cape Flattery, North of Cooktown in QLD.

 The synoptic charts seem to indicate that the low from the Solomon island will combine with Neville sometime Saturday morning.

[Paul D]

The third system has now developed so there is now 2 Ex Tropical Cyclones Neville and Magda, and also a new Tropical Cyclone Olga,

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:15am EST on Saturday the 23rd of January 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Flattery to
Cardwell.

At 7:30 am EST Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 1 was estimated to be
540 kilometres east of Cairns and 485 kilometres northeast of Bowen
moving west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Olga has formed in the Coral Sea overnight and is currently
moving westward towards the coast while intensifying. Gales are not expected on
the east Queensland coast within 24 hours, however gales may develop later
during Sunday as the centre nears the coast.

People between Cape Flattery and Cardwell should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases.  If you are unsure
about the actions to be taken, information is available from your local
government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 7:30 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.4 degrees South 150.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Saturday 23 January.

[Colin Maitland]

The low from the Solomon Island did not join with Neville as first anticipated by BOM. It is now its own system. It could become quite interesting to see how the two, Neville and Olga interact.

[Carlos E]

Umm, can someone explain the logic behind this forecast map?



How on earth can it intensify over land?

[Colin Maitland]

The reason I am thinking that it may reform is due to the monsoonal trough. This would create an extreme amount of water and humidity, and given the right conditions it would allow it regenerate over land, and you also can factor into the equation that it so close to the coastline. I have posted BOMS 4 day map highlighting the northern trough throughout the top end of Australia.

[Paul D]

Olga finally reformed, and looks to only be short lived.
PD.

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 46
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:09pm EST on Friday the 29th of January 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Port
McArthur in the Northern Territory to Kowanyama in Queensland extending inland
to Croydon in Queensland.

At 10:00 pm EST [9:30 pm CST] Tropical Cyclone Olga, Category 1 was estimated to
be 55 kilometres north northwest of Mornington Is and 250 kilometres east of
Port McArthur, moving east at 27 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Olga is expected to intensify overnight as it follows an east
southeastward track across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may develop on the coast between about Burketown and Karumba
during Saturday morning.

GALES are expected to develop between Port McArthur and Kowanyama, including
Mornington Island overnight.

HEAVY RAIN may lead to significant stream rises and flooding of low-lying areas
in the far eastern parts of the Roper-McArthur District in the Northern
Territory and Gulf Country in Queensland.
 
ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are occurring along the Queensland Gulf of Carpentaria
coast and adjacent islands and are expected to exceed the high water mark at
high tide over the next few days.

People between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory and Kowanyama in
Queensland, including Mornington Island, should take precautions and listen to
the next advice. If you are unsure about precautions to be taken, information is
available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Olga at 10:00 pm EST [9:30 pm CST]:
.Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 138.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 27 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 987 hectoPascals