Topic: Severe Weather Forecast western Central Plains Tuesday 7th March 2006

[Jimmy Deguara]

A severe weather watch has been issued for western Central Plains with large hail to 2 inches the primary threat. This period of severe weather is anticipated to cotinue into next week as a series of waves ejects out of the Rocky Mountains.

Place your comments or observations in this thread regarding this outbreak and start new topics with similar title formats for future outbreaks of severe weather and particularly tornado threats or observations or at the least very large hail!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[David C]

Hi Jimmy,

I haven't been through any data but SPC has no risk current - it must be a very conditional situation for the next several days? What gives?

What are the spaghetti plotters seeing re the patterns leading into late March / April / May 2006.  What about the astrologers hehe.



David

[Brad Hannon]

What about the astrologers hehe.

Haha yes Im equally keen to know what the astrologers have to say on the season ahead - especially now that my airfare is paid   Surely the stars will be better aligned this year.  But seriously, good to see some action being forecast even if we arent there yet.  It would be great to hear the NOAA weather radio calling out warnings of large hail again.

[David C]

I'll find one who'll tell you in 3 months Brad

As for 'today' (ie 7th on the Plains) there still looks to be some uncertainty. (i) concerns over whether intitiation will occur, (ii) advection of upper level moisture. All models suggest that there will be fairly dense cirrus over the target area tomorrow, and GFS also indicates high mid-level moisture over Oklahoma - NAM does not so take your pick.

For these reasons I would probably prepare to head into Kansas (eg Harper area) where convergence is stronger and to be in better position with respect to the upper wave - I have severe bustphobia!! Further south, however, given sufficient insolation and a decent dryline (ie given initiation) then isolated supercells would be a sure bet. So, if I was there, I would probably head to the Comfort Inn at Enid and be ready to go north, or change my mind and stay put or even head a little south west! The other thing would be to keep an eye on the obs and in particular dewpoint depressions through the morning since shear will be sufficient for tornadoes.

Any thoughts / targets?

[David C]

SPC 0524z MAR 06 2006:

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN  45-55 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING FROM LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE QUITE LARGE/. THOUGH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED AND REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE."

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi David,

It will be interesting to see what happens. There are quite a few uncertainties but that is atypical of this time of year on the Great Plains. One of the comments though was how the Gulf moisture is expected to sustain for the period. This is usually anticpated duringn the May period. Normally moisture during March (particularly early March) is pushed back into the Gulf remaining there for a week before recovery of the next system.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

I have had a look at the 21Z forecast maps for the Tornado Alley region. I am a little concerned about the mid to high level cloud over the region in Northern Oklahoma. South Central Kansas is in closer to the negative tilt trough and thus is likely in a better environment. Wind shear is more than sufficient for supercells and I like this excellent veerign profiles at the surface.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[David C]

Pretty much a big bust!

[David C]

I should qualify what I just said - 'bust' refers to a daylight tornado bust.
After dark, there has been a very nice isolated supercell (hailer) tracking across the target area for some time - based on current rack I assume it went over Enid or very close to it. Would be some nice lightning and hail!

If you are online now >> http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=inx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Actually if you have Google earth, Greg Stumpf provided this link on stormtrack

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff/

very very cool!



 

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi David,

Excellent! There were storms near Enid and south Kansas. I guess the only bust that occurred were the windscreens in Enid!

Surprisginly at the time of initiation there was too much cloud in southern Kansas and sufficient breaks in Oklahoma to allow heating contrary to what I had observed on the models. I was basing it on the 00Z time frame. I don't think GFS really performed that well.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

Enid received rain but not much in terms of intense hail hmmm

http://www.enidnews.com/siteSearch/apstorysection/local_story_067002352.html

Thanks for the clarification David Nelson. An error there when I did the search via google rather than the website so here it is:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060307_rpts.html

Not as large as I had thought.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[David C]

Regarding speculation on the season ahead as we touched on above


1996!!! -SAY it AINT SO!

From Tim Vasquez
Here's one shot in the dark: ENSO and teleconnections.

Our dominant pattern coming out of winter is La Nina / -PNA / -NAO / indeterminate AO.

The closest analog to this is 1996 (strong correlation) and 1985 (moderate). Those were iffy years with best prospects in Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska. That would match up well with what would happen if we get stronger capping due to the southwest furnace this spring. There's also somewhat of a correlation with 2001, but not as strong as the other years.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

I am very much thinking that timing wise without a severe winter that the Gulf is able to provide ample moisture and thatis on of the keys to storm development given a good system.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara