Hi all. Today there are severe storms forcast in my country, so decided to follow the weather and inform you all how it will turn out
Here is the Europe severe weather forcast
Synopsis:
West European trough weakens, as subtropical ridge over Iberian Peninsula spreads into eastern Atlantic. Ahead of the approaching trough axis, very strong upper level jet spreads across Germany, Poland, Belarus, and Russia. QG forcing is forecast especially underneath the right entry region of this jet ahead of the trough axis. At lower levels, a frontal boundary extends from Bay of Biscay to central France, southern Germany, Czech Republic, to western Ukraine. To the south of this boundary, unstable air mass is present due to rich low-level moisture and a well-developed EML.
astern Alpine region
A very unstable air mass is expected to be present during the period over the eastern Alps. Latest soundings indicate an EML and rich low-level moisture, and daytime heating will likely result in CAPE values of 2000 J/kg. During the day, approaching trough axis will likely lead to QG forcing, while increasing convergence along the low-level frontal boundary and outflow boundaries of overnights convection will likely be focus of new initiation. Thunderstorms that form will likely become well-organized given moderate DLS about 15 to 20 m/s in the lowest 6 km as well as favourable veering profiles. Giant hail and severe wind gusts will be the most significant threat with supercells, but tornadoes are also possible given locally large low-level buoyancy and 15 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear. Latest GFS shows that focus of severe convection will be over southern and eastern Austria. From southern Germany to northern Austria, at least weak instability is expected in the range of the frontal boundary, and thunderstorms are expected capable of producing large hail and severe winds given moderate to strong (20 m/s) DLS. Coverage of storms is forecast to be lower that over southern and eastern Austria. Further south-east, vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease over northern Balkans, where thunderstorms will be slightly weaker. However, large hail and severe wind gusts are not ruled out given high instability and weak to moderate DLS. Thunderstorms will likely merge into one or two MCS moving eastward into Hungary during the night, where severe threat will gradually weaken due to low-level stabilization and ceasing convection as QG forcing will weaken.
And picture. (i live on the white dot near the number 2)
I will inform you tomorrow about the action
Regards, Andrej
