Topic: Severe Weather Forecast western Central Plains 8th to 10th March 2006

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

The next few days has the action moving briefly to the eastern parts of the US and then another short wave arrives for more possible action in the states east of Oklahoma.

Just for interests sake, take a look at the rapid destabilisation that can occur!

[David C]

There are tornado watches current from north central Missouri all the way down the north central Texas.

Thursday is looking exciting and a high risk is on the cards.

THE BEST POTENTIAL
   FOR LONG TRACK STRONG OR VIOLENT TORNADOES SHOULD BE WHERE
   INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND
   IN THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. IF THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS
   REMAIN LINEAR INSTEAD OF DISCRETE.

WOW!

[David C]

>

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi David,

Ditto to both!

The conditions are setting up for a potential devastating outbreak if conditions align correctly during initiationand if the cap sustains some decent convection. Based on the current forecast CIN and CAPE values, extreme shear vectors and the extremely rapid destabilisation, a good combination of these conditions will make for a potent environment for tornadoes as David has suggested. The storms will also be long lived and fast moving making them dangerous. Not only will it be a high risk it is a likely PDS Watch that may be issued any time during the period.

Time will tell.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi,

Even though an outbreak now is unlikely, take a look at the storm relative helicity and shear values! Incredible!

VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS ARE
   EVIDENT IN OKO -- NERN MS PROFILER -- WITH 0-1 KM SRH ROUGHLY 500
   J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEARS ABOUT 70 KT.

David do you have some good sources to explain the extent of these SRH and shear values handy for those that have joined not familiar with them?

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara