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Author Topic: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010  (Read 25962 times)

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Offline Colin Maitland

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Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« on: 13 March 2010, 10:49:06 AM »
There appears to be a new threat heading for the East Coast of QLD, with 2 tropical storm systems approaching over the next 3- 4 days. With the recent rain in QLD and combined dam levels at 96% and rising, it could pose a new flood threat for us. Worth while monitoring these two.

BOM have issued a moderate chance of a cyclone forming on Sunday and Monday at this stage.

Col
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Offline Paul D

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RE: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #1 on: 14 March 2010, 04:38:44 AM »
Latest BOM mean sea level pressure chart shows a newly formed cyclone "Ului"

PD
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Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #2 on: 15 March 2010, 01:27:16 AM »
Ului has intensified last night into a Cat.4 storm and is approx. 266 kilometers (162.4Deg E) from entering Australian waters (that is 160 deg East)

Latest update is

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 LOCATED NEAR 13.0 SOUTH 162.4
EAST AT 131800 UTC.  
POSITION FAIR.  
REPEAT POSITION 13.0S 162.4E AT 131800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 115 KNOTS
IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
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Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #3 on: 15 March 2010, 10:16:18 AM »
Wow this cyclone is huge and so is the 1 behind it. Does anyone think it may have potential to hit as far south as Byron Bay? Even the tail?

Antonio.
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Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #4 on: 15 March 2010, 10:18:27 AM »
and here is a second image showing both of the cyclones. they look scary
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Offline Mathew Townsend

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #5 on: 16 March 2010, 11:25:51 AM »
Man im kinda freaked out by the satellite!!! Its still moving WSW to WNW as usual!! Looks like it going back to category 5 again tomorrow.

GASP is now on board for this 900hpa TC Ului to slam on Townsville direct hit!! Im so nervous......

PS: This thread need to update the topic by adding 'Severe' due to current category of 4!
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Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #6 on: 17 March 2010, 08:36:02 AM »
Cyclone Thomas that John was mentioning had an impact on Fiji last night. Reports indicate that it was the worst storm to hit Fiji in a decade.

I also agree with you John, JTWC have been on the ball with Ului, where as BOM has not made a firm stance, which is understandably hard to do with so much involved and so many possibilities. BOMS latest reports state:

It is expected to adopt a more south to southeasterly track tonight, which it
should maintain until later in the week. Its longer term forecast track is still
uncertain but at this stage the most likely scenario is for Severe Tropical Ului
to turn in a more west to southwesterly track and move closer to the Queensland
coast during Friday and over the weekend.

WZ have Ului making possible landfall on Sunday, they state:

Sunday 22:00 EDT

Tropical Cyclone Ului may cross the coast or move south along the coast, generating rain and gales south of the tropics and into northeast NSW. A trough will bring a cooler change to NSW. A high will keep most of inland NSW, VIC, TAS and SA dry in gusty southeasterlies.

Their Synoptics for sunday as posted

It is a case of watching and seeing at this stage.



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Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #7 on: 18 March 2010, 01:04:07 PM »
The latest track map and advice from BOM, suggests that maybe over the weekend there is a possibility that Ului will cross the coast.

One of the concerns is the from looking at the accumulated precipitation forecasts.The 18Z /120 hr run ( 5 day)shows a bulls eye of 450 mm of rain for the next 5 days north of Rockhampton, the rest of the 120 hr run shows around 100 mm for Brisbane and south of here. The 180 hr run is of interest as well for  Brisbane.  The areas surrounding Brisbane have approx 275 mm totals and South of Bunderberg 425 mm. If the  models hold true, then there is a very high chance of severe flooding down the Capricornia Coast, Brisbane  and Northern NSW
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Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #8 on: 18 March 2010, 01:53:18 PM »
Well Ului has made a nice Thread on Weatherzone forums so far 150 Pages oh my goodness it hasent even hit us yet. Below is the accumulated precipitation that has now vhaged to 3 main cores with 300+mm near Ballina/ Byron. 2nd image down shows the current Cyclones position and Proposed track ( except i added more range of arrows :-) and the 3rd one down is the 850MB shear map. Looks like a direct hit to central QLD by near 10pm Sunday?.

Antonio
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Offline Mathew Townsend

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #9 on: 19 March 2010, 02:42:18 AM »
Cant believe in my eyes this morning its heading for me to Townsville!!!
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Offline Mathew Townsend

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #10 on: 19 March 2010, 03:30:28 AM »
Yes i will get my camera batteries charged and ready for this monster. I am nervous now and i feel sorry for my car :(

http://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=townsville

Interesting wind speed and direction forecasted!?
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Offline Mathew Townsend

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #11 on: 19 March 2010, 09:21:04 AM »
JCU is now under red alert!

Quote
The following Cyclone Advice has been issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Schools and Faculties should check their areas of responsibility and secure any loose items.
Staff and students are advised to review their personal cyclone preparations. Information and advice is available on the JCU Emergency Website and the Bureau of Meteorology site.
Staff and students may obtain updated information at Bureau of Metrology Cyclone Information site.
Any persons planning to travel in the affected areas should check latest Cyclone Information prior to commencing travel.
A further email will be sent if and when a Cyclone Watch is issued.

IDQP0005

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this

warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1

Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane

Issued at 10:56am EST on Thursday the 18th of March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon.

At 10:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be

1140 kilometres northeast of Mackay and

1310 kilometres east of Cairns and

moving south southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is expected to remain about the same strength.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to begin moving in a south-westerly
direction tonight towards the Queensland coast.

On current predictions the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the
coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay. However, it is important to
understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook period.

DAMAGING winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon during Saturday as
the cyclone approaches the coast.
The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului.
Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast
and produce dangerous surf conditions on the exposed coasts.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 157.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hecto Pascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Thursday 18 March.

Ian B Brooks | Manager – Security and Parking, Facilities Management Office
Division of Finance and Resource Planning
James Cook University, Angus Smith Drive, Douglas, QLD 4811
JCU CRICOS Provider Code: 00117J

Its currently light winds with sprinkles so its the 'calm before the storm'! The track map showing it still heading for Townsville so note that the intensity may upgrade to category 4 sometime that i wouldnt be surprised!
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Offline Mathew Townsend

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #12 on: 19 March 2010, 02:55:44 PM »
Just did some shopping with Kathyrn this evening at Stockland Woolies. Its getting more packed when i got there and people are well focused to shop at Woolies than other retailers when are open at the same time.

I also refill too.

It getting very windy here now, i think The Strand probably gale wise!!
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Offline Peter J

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #13 on: 20 March 2010, 03:23:46 AM »
Hi all,

Everytime I look at the satpic of this beast, it looks like it is losing its strength, and getting weaker. The eye has now disappeared and even though it is listed as severe cat 3, it looks more like a cat1 or cat2. I don't think this is going to be anywhere near as bad when it hits the coast over the weekend.

Big Pete
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PJJ

Offline Mathew Townsend

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Re: Tropical Cyclone Ului : March 2010
« Reply #14 on: 20 March 2010, 10:39:55 AM »
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=coralsea&loop=yes&images=8&allday=&start=&stop=

Looks interesting for our area. Hamilton Ap all flights got cancelled. Wont be surprised Proserpine and Bowen will be next and then Townsville tomorrow.
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