CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. Generally when the CAPE number is higher ie 1500-3000 j/kg the likelihood of convective development increases. However you must bear in mind that even if there is a high CAPE number it doesn't always guarantee there will be storms. For instance CAPE could be progged to be 3000 j/kg and you would be thinking that explosive storm development is going to occur, but if the atmosphere is lacking moisture or has a strong CAP the 3000 j/kg of CAPE could possibly go to waste. I can remember a week last year where CAPE was forecast to be above 2000 j/kg for several days, however there was a strong CAP in place and nothing occured. Surface temps would have to have been somewhere above the 40 deg mark for convection to initiate and just didn't happen. Heres a link to a guide to forecasting thunderstorms, I've found this very helpful and informative and it breaks down the art of forecasting a potential storm day in easy to read sections:
http://www.downunderchase.com/storminfo/stormguide/index.htmlAlways remember don't be afraid to ask questions no matter how silly you may think they sound.....thats the way I've learnt what I have so far. Michael Bath can attest to my constant badgering of him for information in regard to forecasting storms
. Anyway have a read of the forecasting guide and you may just have a better understanding of the key indicators for storm development.
Cheers Jason
