Live feed info and apologies for length of post...
As at 2:35am NT time - Gustav is currently rated a Cat2 although he may rate a Cat3-4 within 24 hours. There's many things against him strengthening even to a Cat5 during the forecast period. He is entering into cooler waters towards the coast and there is a mid level dry area trying to wrap around the system. Gustav is struggling but maintaining some resistance to atmospheric conditions and intensifying very slowly. Central pressures have risen slightly since the hurricane hunter aircraft flew through him, and much depends on the environment he enters within the 24 hour forecast period.
The hurricane whilst not displaying 'text book' structure as described by meteorologists, is still a dangerous system but reports have described it as being 'ragged'. There is a non distinctive eye, the hurricane hunter aircraft did observe a 25mile wide 'eye', but it is weak in structure with only a few high topped caps circulating. Even from Cuba there was no eye formed, even now eye wall replacement is taking place but it is very disorganized
Several aspects are affecting its track: there are two high pressure systems to the NE of the hurricane with a small trough in the centre, there is some discussion at the moment whether this may steer the storm to the right of the current forecast track, although most models give a track of NW/W. UK models have a more N track to New Orleans but this is not being monitored as likely as steering winds are favoring the former. The main concern is the circulating post winds from the SE which will push a 13ft storm surge to the coastal areas, then of course once winds shift around, inland surges with the heavy rain will create even more water inundation to those areas first hit by the winds. SST's are cooler by a couple of degrees within the gulf area and whilst only two or three degrees cooler, they will have an affect on the storm
The NWS give Gustav a 2% chance of being rated a Cat5 within the 24 period, but moreso a Cat3 once he moves toward the predicted landfall zones to the NW. There are bouey feeds of 34ft waves on the SE flank already and predicted storm surges to a whopping 12-17ft on coastal areas of New Orleans and Jefferson including many other inland counties. NWS report some areas WILL be affected by 12-16ft storm surges. Models may have Gustav stalling inland to the NW near Louisiana which would be disastrous. Jefferson Parish now has a mandatory evacuation notice for residents - a first in their history - so they are in the firing line. An expected 10-15" of rain is expected in most areas.
Models show an area of track of NW/W or even swing to the east with the influence of those high pressure cells. Because Gustave is tracking so quickly it is actually running out of time to ramp up, his window of opportunity to intensify is running out the faster he comes ashore.
Current winds for 7am Monday (US time) are for 135mph winds, Cat4. Monday 7pm, 100mph winds Cat2. Tornadoes and heavy rain are forecast for affected areas. The storm is currently 6 hours from the coast or 325 miles. The storm is 400 miles in diameter, storm force winds are 40 miles out, it was 70 miles out - so some weakening - but Gustav still is showing 200mph winds on it's outer.
Hurricane Betsy, Katrina and now Gustav all tracked toward Louisanna - let's hope the new president elect does something about storm surge and hurricane insurance for these areas.
I'm still up at 4:33am receiving live info from US info and really i need to go to bed!....
