Topic: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008

[Carlos E]

Ike has rapidly intensified into a Category 3 system in the past few hours. The current track could lead it anywhere from Cuba to Florida, and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. Although vertical wind shear may increase in the next couple of days, it probably won't last for very long.

Ike is going to build up some very nice ACE from this burst way out in the Atlantic.

[Mike]

He was only a Cat1 this morning at 2am NT time, that's a huge leap in such a short space of time.  The structure is really well defined and circulation is strong.

Here's the latest advisory from the NWS at www.noaahwatch.gov

000
WTNT34 KNHC 032345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N...53.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[Carlos E]

Yeah, I was really surprised when I read that particular advisory Mike. And now he's a Cat 4. >_<

[Mike]

Here's the discussion re Ike as of 2am my time...(NT)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041434.shtml?

He's encountering shear and some cooler waters on his current track.  He needs a little more time in some non-hostile areas they are telling us, but too early to say just yet.

I loved the satpic, great definition at this time since he's showing his strength.

[Carlos E]

Yeah he's giving some very nice sat pics at the moment. He'd be very close to a 5 if not a 5 atm. The eye is very very well defined. Which is surprising given the vertical shear in the area.

[Harley Pearman]

Hurricane Ike ought to be watched because if it remains on its current track, the long term Forecast Cone suggests that it may pass rather close to Miami (Florida) or even hitting the southern suburbs of Miami.

Yes it did reach a Category 4 Hurricane but has weakened somewhat but all indicators are, it looks like being a major hurricane. I have the latest IKE Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Centre. Coming hot on the heels of Fay, Gustav, Hanna (Tropical storm) that looks set to curve northwards, Ike is of concern.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 050857
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT DETEORIATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSON BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS 3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA. MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96 HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE DAY POINT IS OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

Comment:

It appears that this is going to be a major Hurricane but at what strength and where will it make landfall? This one has already reached a Category 4 before weakening and a major hurricane is defined as a hurricane that reaches Category 3 on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It must have sustained winds of 110 mph.

If the forecast cones are accurate over the long term and does strike the Miami area it would be the strongest since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 to strike this area. Its a sobering thought given that 3 million residents live in the Miami metropolitan area  (Definition and historic Hurricanes from Extreme Weather Christopher Burt 2007).

Continuing:-

THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE HIGH LATITUDE THROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON THIS CYCLE... BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

FORECASTER KNABB


Harley Pearman

[Carlos E]

Wonderful... looks like Ike is going to head into the Gulf of Mexico as a Major; this season is a tad nasty.

[Carlos E]

The Vertical Wind Shear has begun to subside, and Ike has taken full advantage by powering back up to a Category 4 Hurricane again. Cuba now looks extremely likely as a first landfall. They already had Gustav hit the western area last week, it to was a 4 at the time.

[Harley Pearman]

Hurricane Ike certainly needs attention.

I have been reading storeys about evacuations at least over the Florida Keys. However the latest track suggests that while Miami is somewhat threatened, it looks like passing to the south and not directly threatening this city.

The latest track does suggest it passing over Cuba, then turning North West. The Hurricane path shown on CNN shows it turning NW and threatening New Orleans but the Forecast Cones on the National Weather Service show something different with the city the Galveston (South of Houston) Texas possibly in its sights.

This city has a history of devastating Hurricanes, especially September 8 1900 when a hurricane left around 6,000 dead (The worst death toll in the USA from a Hurricane). It appears that one ought to watch this part of the Gulf Coast. The long term forecast cones are currently ominous for the western Louisiana and eastern Texas coastline.

Hurricane Ike has regained its Category 4 strength. A storey I found from CNN does show that visitors to the Florida keys have been asked to pack up and leave. About 2 hours later after the evacuation order, Ike regained strength with winds near 135 mph (217 km/h) with peak wind gusts to 160 mph (257 km/h) and moving WSW at 12 mph or 20 km/h.

Tourists are fleeing Turks and Caicos - Florida Keys.

There will be some weakening as it passes across Cuba but it looks like once it gets back out into open waters of the Gulf, it will intensify again.

The latest Hurricane IKE Forecast discussion from the National Weather Service is reproduced here for clarity.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING WOULD NOT OCCUR. ONCE IKE MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD REGAIN SOME OF ITS FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN IKE...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST - NORTH WEST TRACK OVER WESTERN CUBA...TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW. HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

Comment:

The lastest long term forecast cones shows anywhere from western Louisiana to Texas (Plus a large part of the Texas coastline) being the potential landfall sites with the current long term suggested path taking it rather close to the city of Galveston which is south of Houston. Even though the model used on CNN shows it coming close to New Orleans, based on the latest forecast cones from the Narrow Weather Service, it would suggest that this one should miss this city altogether.

Harley Pearman

[Carlos E]

I watched something ages ago on that Galveston Hurricane, that was a disaster and a half. Texas has already had Hurricane Dolly earlier in the season as well.

[Mike]

Ike currently a Cat3 as he closes in on Cuba.  NHC are still concerned about him as the eye will remain over warm waters and his weakening will only be temporary once he moves onward toward the gulf area.  Recon aircraft report a well structured eye wall and excellent outflow, two things keeping him strong.  Sustained winds of 195km/h or 120mph .

Uncertainty as to where he will go in the five day window.  Two high pressure systems over central USA will determine where Ike goes.  From Tuesday they'll probably get a better idea, but currently he's tracking with NW. If the high pressure areas weaken then they say he'll track for New Orleans and maintain NW, if they don't weaken then models predict he'll swing slightly North and go for the Texas panhandle, but still too early to tell.  They're confident that he'll gain the Cat4 rating he had prior to Cuba - a given really!

[Harley Pearman]

Hurricane Ike crossed the northern coast of Eastern Cuba in the Province of Holguin near Purto De Soma at around 9.45 pm EDT 1.45 UTC with maximum wind gusts at landfall of 125 miles per hour or 205 km/h.

The outer rainbands has caused more misery to the populace of Haiti in which after Hurricanes / tropical storms, Hanna, Gustav and Fay, much of the island lies in ruins and a humanitarian disaster is unfolding.

There have been evacuations in the Florida Keys too.

I have been looking at the models and forecast cones and models do suggest that enough of the hurricane will remain over water as it passes across much of Cuba in a west north westerly direction and it should move into the Gulf of Mexico thereafter. It is expected to intensify again.

The long term 5 day forecast cones are certainly ominous for western Louisana and the eastern Texas coastline. The current long term forecast cones for Friday 8 pm still suggests a track towards Galveston in Texas but this could easily change.

However, as pointed out in the last post and as stated by forecasters at the National Weather Service the exact landfall position is still not fully known.

Harley Pearman

[Mike]

watching models it seems two comparisons are showing:  GFS have Ike moving w/NW and then steering NE once near landfall near New Orleans under the influence of an easterly moving high pressure system and forming a SW ridge on his LH circulation area blocking westerly movement.  Other models show him not affected by a dissipating high pressure area in the same region in central USA and moving westerly right through to landfall.  The latter is not being taken as the predicted path of Ike in the five day scheme of things to come.

Central pressures range on the models from 948-960 whilst over the gulf region, and whilst only a CAT2 at the moment as he passes over Cuba, he is expected to regain momentum to a Cat4 once again.  Sustained gusts by models suggested in the range of 86-114knots and once making landfall around 71knots. 

He aint done by a long shot - his momentum is great and I don't think I've seen such a large hurricane gain so much power in category over such a short period - less than 12 hours to go from Cat2-4!


 

IKE BATTERING CAMAGUEY CUBA...HEADING WESTWARD FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND
CAYMAN.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
 70 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 290 MILES...465
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER
NEAR PUNTA MACURIJES IN THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY SOON.  IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY UNTIL IKE MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP IKE
OVER WATER LONGER RESULTING IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING NEXT DAY
OR SO.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
IKE'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...78.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA

GOES Floater4 image of Ike

[Carlos E]

Ike is expected to retain his size (and possibly grow even larger) in the Gulf of Mexico as well. It looks like the centre of Ike is just about to come off Cuba again, so it could start intensifying as early as 4 hours. Then again, everything I've said regarding this storm has been wrong, so it probably won't. >_>

[Harley Pearman]

Ike is one big intense storm. Currently battering an area just south of Cuba but it looks like it will cross Cuba again and I have heard that the city of Havana is seriously threatened by this. In addition, 2 million residents live here and much of the building stock is old and dilapidated.

It will be interesting to see how this city fares.

Looking at the forecast cones from the National Weather Service, it seems that Ike will be taking more of a westward course, rather than a north ward course. The threat to New Orleans seem to have subsided somewhat.

I read a report in a local paper from Galveston indicating that the Mayor has advised the population of this city to start taking precautions.

However the latest forecast cones show a course south of Galveston now and closer towards Corpus Christie (Texas). It looks like an area from Galveston to Corpus Christie is threatened by this storm.

One can see the dynamics of this changing. The latest report IKE Discussion is reproduced here taken 9/9/08.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM. THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION... BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.

FIXES FROM CUBAN AND THE KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN...THE CENTRE SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDEANCE ENVELOPE.

IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASISED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS. DO NOT FOREGT THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDEANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER AVILA

Further Comments:

During my lunch break, I was spying Ike via the infra red satellite pictures and other satellite photographs and noted a very small eye area and concentration of cumulonimbus clouds circulating on and just south of Cuba. Much of Cuba was being affected by the rain bands. The core of the storm seemed to be small but intact at that time. I read a report that new convection around the eyewall was occurring.

I also noted that the Guantanamo Bay weather radars were down probably due to the effects of the Hurricane so I could not observe the Hurricane patterns over Cuba at that time.

Harley Pearman