Topic: Darwin Storm events 2008/2009

[Mike]

You're certainly getting some really nice photos Renate and these are things that you can remember Darwin by!   Love the posts and is great to see your enthusiasm!

[Karina Roberts (slavegirl)]

Great Photo's everyone! Love reading this thread, specially when nothings happening here!

[cloudfairy]

well, I think the next days will be interesting again. moist air from the monsoon trough over Indonesia and dry air from inland....I'm hoping for some great storms. It is already bubbling around

*sing* storms are in the air, everywhere I look around....*/sing* hope they will be tonight, and the whole week

[Mike]

No shortage of storms about.  Some stronger than others but the ones I can see currently aren't too explosive.  They're tending to get some height but towers are weak and precip falling from the mids in some of them, but that are producing the odd bolt.  The larger cells are inland which you'd expect given that's where they form.  Sounding shows some wetter mids than have been seen over the last few days, I would have preferred it a little drier - maybe this is the cause for the cells collapsing (?) and lapse rates are - well - they're acceptable for updrafts !

I was looking at the GFS for Thursday and it showed good potential similar to last Saturday when we chased, but the models have shifted somewhat away to more 'average' indices.  Things should pick up I would say from tomorrow onwards for Darwin at least, a lot of the higher numbers are coastal rather than inland.  Might be a coastal photo opportunity instead of an actual chase - time will tell.

[cloudfairy]

we have a strong sea breeze (12knots) atm, so they are dying around us.....so they expect an early morning storm.

[Mike]

 Storms moving onshore made for chaotic decisions whether to chase or not.  The ones inland were large but fast moving and very erratic in what they wanted to do steering wise.  A lot of cloud cover really made for difficult observation of where new, spent or growing cells were.  There were several storms out to sea which were moving SE to Darwin and some died off, but some did not and provided some decent bolts through the northern suburbs moving inland and then back out to sea!.  I grabbed my daughter (and her book) and simply went around the corner (again!) and managed three shots of some decent lightning behind my home or thereabouts.  We had seen two absolutely massive strikes to our north whilst photographing and they pulsed at least 4-5 times and looked as wide as a house!   The storm I photographed lasted about 20 mins until one behind did the same and put out quite a lot of lightning.

Just as an interesting side note...Renate's co-countryman, Thomas who is also here has the luck of the Irish - although being German - I've been here 7 years and not seen a spout or funnel.  Thomas has been staying centrally in Darwin City and has photographed two in less than two months!!  He has far too much time on his hands sitting at the wharf all day waiting for vorticity!  Once he sends me the images I'll post them up.

[cloudfairy]

cool pics....
I went to Cas beach and could see some great strikes. But I had trouble to stand still because of the wind, I guess my tripod would just have been blown away. So, again, I didn't got anything.

And yer I'm in a snit.

And guess what, Thomas told me he got a good shot from last night.....

feel like the only stormchaser without any fotos.

[Adrian]

5th Dec 2008

Just went through the camera after the last few days ....... its been a bit dry

Got this shot - which I thought I would post .... just for the sake of it !!!

cheers,
.adrian

[Mike]

Neat flang there Adrian.  For those that have a thing for our current weather one word comes to mind C#@!P!

Squally monsoonal showers are forecast from Thursday as the monsoon arrives.  So it's going to be a dry spell for any decent storm shots unless something is able to show some gust front structure.  David is here from the forum (Aesacus) but he leaves for Katherine tomorrow to house-sit and possibly chase.  We had a chat today at home and debated on whether to make a run down the track but we decided it's not a good option given the obs and conditions.  I'd rather chase (intercept) than be the chasee (follow) and I've already given those reasons in another thread.  David has enjoyed the weather - albeit the humidity - but a bit frustrated with no actual decent storms to date.  The obs in Katherine for tomorrow are much more favorable than Darwin as their CAPE is 3000 and LI's at -5 - not too bad considering!  I told him to keep an eye out for the 'dry' storms if possible!

The 1004hpa low off the west of Darwin and near the Kimberley has a 50% or better chance of cyclone status by Thursday and is moving W/SW.  bom here aren't too concerned at the moment - as they rightly should not be because it's not affecting us - but PTCWC are watching closely.  We were told that a cyclone might be in our midst around xmas, WA might get that prezzie.

It's gonna be a wet week with fairly large rain falls expected - hope Katherine does not get too much, they'll be flooded in again!

[Carlos E]

Excellent pictures in this topic!

I wish I lived in Darwin. I love stormy/rainy days, and I much prefer warm weather over cold.

[cloudfairy]

Well, at the moment there are no electrical storms around.
Monsoon is back and all we get now is rain.... (boring, but I guess the nature was longing for it)
What might be a bit more exciting is the tropical low in the Timor Sea. Very slow moving and developing but keeps the forecaster and TCWC busy.
I will know more about it after chart discussion today.

[Mike]

Indeed.  Coastal suburbs yesterday received up to 100mm in a short period and most areas received between 40-80mm.  It's been non-stop steady to moderate soaking rains.  The monsoon showers will be with us tomorrow and that's when things get a little more exciting if you like squally showers.  At least the increased wind whips up the swell for the surfers.

Darwin Met have handed over the Low to WA - no surprises there given the models show it moving S/SW.  With it wobbling in the trough it will look like it's tracking east at times but the consensus I would assume is that it won't affect us unless winds change.  The trough is active though so anything will happen.  There was comment by some that BoM really did not have a clue where it was heading - well in fairness I'd like to see these people forecast anything and saying that it's going to dump hundreds of mm's of rain, track east, cause major flooding and we'll get it is a bit over the top so early out. The monsoon will give us the rain amounts regardless, the low will obviously drag some of that with it but crystal ball predictions don't sit with me very well considering that a lot of folk up here are newcomers and are skittish about this type of talk.  There's always a chance of the low moving towards us, but awareness/preparedness is the important key here, not scaremongering with false forecasts that panic people.

Anyway where was I.....oh yeah, David from the forum is down at Katherine and he's been inundated with rain - had to chuckle because the obs are good down there - but the monsoon has a habit of delivering what we get further north - rain!  He's not happy with that forecast

[cloudfairy]

You are right Mike!!
Different models give different output and the BoM has to decide in which to believe most.....but as you said, it is a hard decision. This morning at chart discussion we heard that the US model let it move to southeast, so that would be us.....

So, we have to wait and see. I would prefer it just disappearing, cause I'm going to Kakadu from Friday on......I don't want any rain there!!!

[Mike]

Interesting that JTWC gave a good summary of its progress with recent deep LLC, good divergence and there's been thunderstorms around it for two days now without weakening.  Their sat image gave it a poor rating, but who knows how old that was when posted. Once the earth's rotation kicks in a little to get some circulation then it should be easier to track.  Don't like your chances of no rain in Kakadu - there's plenty of it coming with the monsoon only several hours from the coast!  It's hard enough working out who says what about it, computer models are just that and we all know how hard they are to predict when it comes to where it goes.  Time is on our side (well unless it heads our way!) for review so I'm simply mindful of it and don't forecast these at all!

[Mike]

Now that Billy has made landfall the outer rain bands are still sweeping through from the NW into Darwin.  More a-typical monsoonal bursts are now more regular with sporadic downpours in between drizzle and light rain.  I've bought a rain gauge today and plonked in the front yard un-obscured by my palms so it will be interesting to see how much it catches in the next 12-24 hours.  I've never actually taken much notice about rainfall measurements so this time I'm keeping a log to see how much falls in my particular area.  A couple of coastal storms this morning which produced some lightning and there's been rumbles all day, so that at least has given me hope over the next few days of getting some shots once this cyclone moves further westward.

Apart from that the monsoon is well entrenched now and sits off the coast.  Not more to really say about it except that it's wet   It's the same each year and I've overheard a few newcomers to the Territory saying they can't believe how much rain they've seen in a day -sometimes we up here take it for granted and get a little complacent about water conservation - the thought did pop up re installing rain water tanks in all yards but given that you'd fill it in a week it would be overflowing for the next 4 months every time it got topped up by storms.  But it's something I might do regardless for the dry season - at least the garden will appreciate some decent water

If anything of value comes from news of any damage or flooding from TC Billy I'll pop that in the appropriate thread as it comes to hand.