Topic: NSW Storms: 27-28th October 2008

[Jeff Brislane]

Hi all,

Long time no post so I thought I'd start a thread for tomorrows event over NSW. That's of course if we have one, or one worth posting about due to our number one nemisis in oz, lack of moisture. I tell you what if we only had decent humidity atm conditions tomorrow would be potentially dangerous given the excellent wind profile, dry upper levels and of course massive instability. Oh well maybe things will shape up for a possible Lp?

Regards Jeff.

[Richary]

Well TV news tonight forecasted possible storms for Katoomba but no further east. I am guessing the sea breeze will keep anything back over the mountains. Typical.

[pingtang]

We'll,i've noticed the bureau took "chance storm" off the forecast for Sydney,yet they they think Bathurst will get a storm. Obviously they feel theres not enough moisture for storms in the basin. Dewpoints are handy along the coast but this moisture is very shallow. Its a shame,because we have good shear with some turning,good instability,and we also have handy temps at the 500. I have this whole week off and im desperate for a chase. Im probrably wasteing my time,but i'll drift out for a chase anyway probrably to Penrith or the Blue Mountains.Im not ruling out a storm for these areas,but the chances of a bust are extreme.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Jeff et al,

Yes why not have a storm today. I would have thought the windshear and the moisture that is present across the central tablelands and up to almost the central west would lead to at least high based storms? This is an upper level cold pool over us and with the temperatures we have and the trigger inland, I would have thought anvils would drift across by evening. Northerlies even close to 2pm have persisted which to me is a decent sign.

We'll see.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[David C]

It's to be expected that moisture is hit-and-miss here at this time of the year, although, heading into November one would like to at least see ~ mid teen dewpoints if we're going to get some serious weather. I agree with Jimmy the cold upper temps though should wring out any surface moisture so we might again at least see some lightning. As Jeff, said, if GFS would put down the crack pipe (ie we realised 16dps over the tablelands) today would be quite volatile!

[Shaun Galman]

Hi guys,

*Mods: I thought it may be worth while opening this thread up for yesterday's storms around NSW also.

Upper Western NSW Storm Report 28 Oct. 2008
I had a reprieve in weather from what I saw while in Dubbo on the 27th. There was a nice rippled base on a low topped Cu cell accompanied with some virga. Moisture was definitely lacking as I saw nothing in the way of overshooting above the mid levels. If anything else, I was treated to a nice sunset lit cell sitting to the West of Dubbo while having a bite to eat at KFC around 7:15pm. We had a brief shower and that was that. Temps down there were pretty warm at around 36ºc. There was a pretty active cell to our W-SW (about 70k's in distance from the look of Russ' shots) around 10pm, the temps were at 38.6º in the Ridge on the 27th.

On the journey back to the Ridge yesterday I saw the line of towers forming to the West the whole trip back and I thought this will surely do something! By the time I reached home (at 3pm) it was building nicely with some nice towering on a few of the cells. By 4:30pm I shot down to see Russ and we kept an eye on the radar and LT as there were 3 or 4 active cells sitting to our west in a line reaching Walgett. We could see the largest of these that had a nice anviled top to our SW. Temps were above 37ºc here yesterday. It quieted down for a time though the power flickered on and off right up until we could see a couple nice active cells close by us again at 8pm. We headed out to be totally surrounded by highly active cells in all directions (but none over town to dampen our photographic efforts which was nice) I could see 5 cells, 3 close to us and 2 very distant that were the other side of Walgett on radar. The structure was apparent in the darkness with every flash with some nice RFB on the rear of the storm line (which was 40-50k's to our east by this time), the third storm cell was sitting out to the NW around 30k's away. All the cells were slow moving and hardly budged the whole time we were out there! Lightning, both CG and CC were constant in all directions. The temps were still 30ºc at 10pm which really helped with the activity of the cells I thought. I have a few shots that I will post today if I can.

I purchased a new Sigma EX 10-20mm f/4-5.6 lens and an Optex tripod that is nice and heavy (6kg's) to keep any high winds at bay. The new lens was great last night as I could capture two of the cells, that were a great distance apart on the horizon, with ease at 10mm! The infinity marker on this lens was awesome to have and makes life out in the dark easy

Take care,
Shauno

[Ben]

Nice stuff Shaun. Sounds like a good one!!! Jealous. The season has been rather ordinary down here to say at the least. Tomorrow looks interesting IMO. It could well turn out to be useless mind you. However there is a nice shear profile lingering around.. some nice fairly deep NE'lys backing to NW'lys at 700 then SW'lys at 500. And the shear at 700 and 500 is not ordinary either. If moisture sticks around and is not shallow some storms could take off. My main concern would be the cap.. it may just be a bit strong, and things will probably fire late. if things get going they could be quite interesting. Friday looks NW'lys dominant and I can't see much happening on this day at this stage apart from later in the evening again, and even then high based. I would like to hear some other opinions on this!!! The winds might back a bit more NW'lys further south so maybe sitting where the NE'lys are (and where you would assume the best moisture would be) ie S highlands, SW Sydney might be the best bet if things do indeed fire. Could be some alright hail I guess.. we'll see.

[Richary]

I caught the end of a report on ABC Radio not long ago saying that over the weekend tropical moisture is going to be drawn down into the system together with a series of approaching fronts/depressions they were suggesting that storms are possible around Sydney Friday and over the weekend, though will be more likely further north.

Fingers crossed!

[Shaun Galman]

Thanks for the kind words Ben.

Upper Western NSW Storm Photos 28 Oct. 2008

Here's a few of the better shots from last night. I cropped these a little due to the vast distance of the cells lol.
The first image is the cell that was sitting to our East (somewhere near Collarenebri) at 8:32pm. This had some great back-building base structure for a short time.


This second cell was the most active with constant lightning over a couple of hours. It was sitting out to our South (it was near Walgett on radar). This cell had some of the brightest and most intense CC that I had seen for a while. This image was taken at 8:37pm.
*the lights at the bottom right are our Hot Artesian Bore Baths set a kilometre out of town, to our East, on the Collarenebri road. This is where the road becomes black soil and gets very treacherous at times.


The 3rd cell of the evening was behind us to the NW. This wasn't particularly active compared to the others but still delivered given enough time. We could hear the thunder from this storm as it slipped by us. I took this image at 9:02pm just before Russ ran out of battery power in his camera. We called it a night as the storms were all moving away from us anyway. Nice to see them though :D


Kindest regards,
Shauno

[Rodney Wallbridge]

Great captures there Shaun!, I'd love to be out that way for a few storms and i'll steer clear of that black soil MUD. At least i know a certain car is up to the task Certainly not recomended but it was supposed to be a lot dryer from three days prior lol.

[Shaun Galman]

Great captures there Shaun!, I'd love to be out that way for a few storms and i'll steer clear of that black soil MUD. At least i know a certain car is up to the task Certainly not recomended but it was supposed to be a lot dryer from three days prior lol.

Thanks Roddy!
Yeah you definitely have to think twice and do your navigational homework when traveling out in this region of NSW. Always best to stick to the bitumen unless you know the roads are dry (and not just a dry crust on top!). I can offer some advice in not letting your GPS or in car Nav system take you on "the shortest route" while chasing storms out here as sometimes the shortest route can become the LONGEST route you've ever taken, very easily lol!

I should have added earlier that all my shots were at 400 - 800ISO and between f/4 - f/8, all 20sec exp. with the new Sigma EX 10-20mm.
Kindest regards,
Shauno

[pingtang]

A week off work gave me and my friend the opportunity to chase between the 28th and 30th of October. There wasnt much on offer in the way of severe storms,but we certainly saw nice lightning and some photogenic structure at times.

On the 28th of October a line of storms developed in the Upper Hunter reigon eventually moving towards coastal Hunter areas. We originally targeted the Central Tablelands but realised very quickly that moisture was an issue in this area. Thankfully the lack of shear allowed us to catch these storms. We cut across from Mudgee to Merriwa and intercepted the storms after sunset. Some of the lightning was quite impressive with some bolts pulisng 11times(see video below) ,and we didnt have issues with low cloud that the Lower Hunter had. We stayed in Scone overnight 

A few storms were expected on the 29th as the inland trough continued. A southerly reached the Upper Hunter overnight and the morning was therefore cloudy and cool in Scone. We travelled north to avoid the southerly.Skies rapidly cleared after Murrundi and it was very warm and sunny in Tamworth with some castellanus overhead. Towers appeared quite healthy on the Northern Tablelands so we targeted this reigon. We eventually got onto a photogenic pulse storm near the town of Woolbrook(see below). This storm was short lived rapidly becoming outflow dominant. This storm had a small red echo on the Grafton 256km radar.



Shortly afterwards we got onto a nice rainfreebase near Armidale. This was very photogenic and eventually  had a green tinge to it. We were expecting a lightning barrage but only got the one bolt about 3kms away. A brief hail shower followed with stones up to 2cms. (see video below)



On the 30th we intercepted a weak but photogenic storm near Bathurst on our way home. This was very lightning active,though much of the lightning was amonst the rain curtain.



Heres a short video that I made from these couple of days.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aX48M--8zoE

Cheers
Michael