Well...Its about time a thread went up for the passage of this trough system given the moisture present throughout eastern Australia.
Wednesday: Isolated thunderstorms in Western Victoria with a small chance of organisation. Scattered Cbs across the ranges with O.K LIs. In NSW looking at Bathurst region for Isolated thunderstorms. Northern Rivers chance of a late storm, SE QLD isolated thunderstorms.
My target will be lightning on the ranges NE of Melb tonight.
Thursday: Scattered Thunderstorms for western Victoria, and Scattered across the ranges, possibly severe with the shear. Plains action accross the Albury Wodonga region...low chance of organised storms. LIs down to -4 near bathurst and west of Mudgee, and for this reason im going with Thunderstorms with Moderate to high possibility of severe/organised.
Won't be chasing during the day due to cricket training.
Friday: Action begins to contract into NSW, High possibility of severe and organised storms over Mudgee region and fair chance of isolated CBs for Sydney. In my opinion i'd be pretty sure severe storms with possible supercells on the western slopes if the moisture holds given the shear and good LIs.
Likely will chase for the western slopes.
Saturday: If there was a day to chase the northern rivers this is it...unfortunately cricket prevents me.
CAPE up to 2000 over the region, LIs to -5, shear moderate. Id be even more certain of a supercell or more, with a high probability of severe weather for the region. Not sure on storm direction or topography but Id be setting myself in Armidale to get my bearing off the Cu fields. Im fairly sure that Coffs and Lismore will also see action as the storms move towards the coast.
Anyway...thats my brief and scattered forecast for this event.
