Topic: NE & W NSW/SE QLD Rain Event 26-31 July 2010

[Steven]

GFS is forecasting falls of up to 50-100mm along the coast with heavy showers coming onshore this evening, and the possibility of thunderies on Thursday. Must say I'm excited to hear the rain on the roof again...

[Shaun Galman]

Hi Steven,
GFS is definitely looking promising!

It's be nice to see as little dry out west here.

Hoping for a few good totals over the coming days 

[Michael Thomas]

Well GFS is hinting at a bit of instability over the next couple of days. I have my eye on Thursday at the moment. I do think that dew points forecast over SE Qld on Thursday are too high (17C in winter?) and therefore the predicted LI's and CAPE may be unrealisticly low/high. Anyway, nice mid/upper level jet should be in place which should get things moving. Doesn't look like much at the moment but it is still winter.

Michael

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Rain has been falling on off here all day and in the past 2 hours has not stopped, weatherzone is already threating over possible flooding in the SE QLD and NE nsw areas in this rain event.

Weatherzone says:

Flash flooding is a distinct possibility in parts of southern Queensland and northern NSW, with more than 100 millimetres a chance by the weekend.

Pinpointing where the heaviest rain will occur is no surety but flash flooding is a good chance somewhere in the vicinity of the border ranges. Anywhere from Birdsville to Brisbane to Sydney may also see flash flooding with more than 50mm a possibility.

In the last week-or-so moisture has been steadily building to unusually high levels and has already led to significant rain in a destabilizing atmosphere.

Developing troughs of low pressure are tapping into the moisture and are also dragging it further south. Widespread rain will reach southern NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia.

Good rain is not unusual in southern states during the winter months but is very uncommon across the interior and north of the country.

Ballera in far southwest Queensland has gained about 20mm today, not enough to flood but this is its wettest July day in at least 10 years.

Many other locations in Queensland and NSW are likely to pick up their highest July rainfall in decades.

I think the bands developing in the sea at the moment are going to bring totals up pretty high and then the rain from the northwest will move in.

Antonio, to check live rainfall data for Ballina check out my website (click on banner below)

[Michael Thomas]

I was wrong, dew points are already up to 17C along the SE Qld coast. Certainly a suprise walking outside today for me, it warm and humid. A nice change to the cold and wet weather on Monday and Tuesday.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

rain still going at the moment with huge amounts coming in from the northwest and in result will probably be bringing totals widespread 20-40mm?

backyard is flooded at the moment with water everyware.

 http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR663.loop.shtml

Antonio.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Just some news from weatherzone

Rain is the name of the game, at least in New South Wales, as falls spread from west to east in the last 24 hours.

The largest rainfall totals were in the Northern Rivers, Mid-North Coast and Upper Western districts. Tweed Heads recorded 77mm to 9am, the state's highest in that 24 hour period.

Lightning Ridge was deluged with a mighty 39mm, their wettest July day in 10 years. It was the same story for Collarenabri and Walgett, receiving 29mm and 28mm respectively.

The rainfall area spread further south and east during the day, delivering between 10 and 20mm to the Central Tablelands, Hunter and Sydney districts so far. There is the possibility of even heavier falls near the coasts tonight.

The rain has also had the effect of keeping any heat at bay. Sydney only peaked at 15 degrees, one below average. Richmond and Penrith were even colder, reaching just 12 degrees, each five below their July average. This also made it the second coldest day this month for many western suburbs.

Tomorrow, rain will clear during the early hours of the morning, allowing areas of fog to develop. It should be a mostly dry and warm-ish day, before rain develops again during the evening.

If anyone lives near lightning ridge how is it over there?

Antonio.

[Colin Maitland]

After a very mild and humid night in Brisbane of 17C there was no surprise to see a blanket of fog around the city this morning.  There is a very good chance of a storm this afternoon/evening for the SEQ. Looking at the stormcast models I would not be surprised to see a nice display of lightning out to sea tonight. The same could be the go for the Northern NSW coast. With a top of 23+C and high dewpoints, it could be a nice treat.  

Storm warning issued this morning for the South West of QLD

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of the
Maranoa and Warrego Forecast District.

Issued at 8:32 am Thursday, 29 July 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Charleville, Bollon, Mitchell and Augathella.



Col

[Michael Thomas]

I agree regarding the chances of a storm later on today. I am certainly eating my words about a dew point of 17C being a bit optimistic. Live and learn.

Of interest, 173 mm of rain was recorded at Point lookout, North Stradbroke Island. Here is the radar loop from last night-

See : 128km Radar Loop for Brisbane, 00:00 28/07/2010 to 00:00 29/07/2010 UTC


Michael

[Shaun Galman]

Hi guys,

Lightning Ridge was deluged with a mighty 39mm, their wettest July day in 10 years. It was the same story for Collarenabri and Walgett, receiving 29mm and 28mm respectively.

If anyone lives near lightning ridge how is it over there?

Antonio.

Hi Antonio,
The highest average I found (amongst several locals in and around Lightning Ridge who actually monitor rainfall, including myself) was 35mm. The data collection at the "local source" is not very reliable. The last time I saw it, it was a Milo can with a ruler in it?! 

The falls were widespread however. Some localised minor flooding here and there which has not been greeted with any favorable means by the hundreds of tourists that are here for our Opal and Gem Expo (continuing over the next 3 days until Sunday the 1st August) There are 20-30 stalls now positioned outside in the water and mud. 

I just received an EWN warning for flooding in the rivers around the NW - Upper Western area for Friday (30th) and Saturday (31st). The ground is very saturated so any further falls will just become more localised flooding around the Ridge and surrounding areas. I'll definitely get shots if it looks impressive!     

Looking forward to seeing what happens Friday and Saturday as far as heavy rains!

Kindest regards.

[Colin Maitland]

Storms have been slowly tracking eastwards from Southwest Qld for most of the day. Bom have reissued two new warnings for the Central and Coalfield areas and the Wide Bay area.  Presently one of the systems is sitting about 250KM west of Brisbane ( 6.30pm) and slowly moving east/northeast, so there is a chance that it could just slide to the North of us.

Tomorrow is also looking good for the chance of a storm.

BOM Warning

For people in parts of the
Central Highlands and Coalfields and
Wide Bay and Burnett Forecast Districts.

Issued at 5:52 pm Thursday, 29 July 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours.

Locations which may be affected include areas to the west and southwest of Gayndah, Mundubbera and Eidsvold.

Another storm cell is moving northeastwards over the southern Central Highlands and may affect the areas to the southwest of Springsure.

Col

[Antonio (stormboy)]

i am very happy that so far the rain has stayed in the northern table lands because today is absoloutly beautiful with 27C just recently and a westerly wind, rain is moving our way but maybe because of the warm heat there may be a storm later perhaps.

Antonio

[Shaun Galman]

Hi guys,

Well we copped an absolute deluge all yesterday (Friday 30th July) evening and pretty well continued heavy all night. I'm just about to head out and grab some totals. If 39mm was our July record then I think it's well and truly broken as of yesterday afternoon!

I'll report back this afternoon.

Kindest regards.

[Shaun Galman]

Just took the reading and we had 48mm last night.

I will ask around to correlate this but I usually get a similar number.

The rain started lightly around 6pm but got very heavy around midnight and continuing on through until early morning so most of that 48mm would've been in the 7-8hrs after midnight -making it a record for today I guess?

It's pretty wet and slushy everywhere as you could imagine.

Kindest regards.