Topic: QLD & NSW Severe Storms (incl Blackwater hail & Brisbane flash flooding): 19-21 Nov 2008

[Michael Thomas]

Well I really didn’t get the chance to follow Sundays event since I was busy traveling. I was quite amazed at the damage that occurred. While I don’t have much to add about Sundays event, I will start some discussion on the next several days. Just focusing on SE Qld, I think there is real potential both today and up to Friday or Saturday. Today, shear is a little slack with quite weak mid level winds (though much stronger to the W and SW). GFS does have a small area of stronger mid-level winds between 4 and 7pm but that’s most likely reading into things too much. This weak shear should be offset by the strong instability. I suspect we will see dp’s in the low 20’s by the coast with temp’s in the high 20’s. This would result in CAPE getting to around 2500 j/kg. Certainly plenty of juice for severe storms. In my opinion Thursday and Friday look the best at this stage. GFS has SE Qld in the jet exist region both days with surface wind coming from deep in the coral sea. This may give a better combination of shear and CAPE to give some powerful supercells if things come together. The following forecast sounding for tomorrow certainly looks very nice with CAPE of 2500, LCL below 1000m and 0-6km shear around 40 knots.

http://soundings.bsch.au.com/skew-t.html?source=ncep&lat=-27.92&lon=153.15&date=2008112006&gribdate=2008111812

Hopefully though there is not too much damage from these storms. I am mainly interested in the science behind severe weather and am not terribly interested in seeing widespread damage happen propriety.

Michael

[Shaun Galman]

Hi all,
Just a quick update here as I have to act- camera batteries to charge etc.

If you have a look at the current radar we have a bit of a large storm on approach from our West now (10:47am EDST)

Looks to be highly active so I will be switching off for a time until it passes. Seems to be around Brewarrina now so I usually give it 40mins to an hour until it's here (given directions and speed remain stable)

I sure hope it's carrying some decent structure! :D

EDIT:

Upper Western Storm Report 19th Nov. 2008. 12:53pm
Russ and I went out to await the storm but the major cell on radar had slipped by us and went down towards Walgett. We did have a small active pulse storm form 30k's to our NW which weakened after 15mins. We arrived to photograph it just as it reached maturity with a little lower scud hanging around the edges and a few fast single CG that we had trouble catching even with continuous shooting! Russ trialed his new Neutral Density filters giving him around a second exposure but I don't yet know how he went? He rattled of a couple hundred shots so I hope he was rewarded for his efforts! I only took around 8 photos as I usually count to 15secs and give the KV field time to charge enough to ground itself in these little partially active cells. There were a few good multiple strikes and the odd single CG but only around 20 in all.
The cell had a great little flanking line that was very convective and rather uniform in a nice straight line. We were soon beaten by a heavy shower that we could hear approaching through the trees so we made a hasty retreat back to the car. The cell has since moved South of town and I haven't heard thunder in some time.
The temps here are approaching 30ºc currently so it looks like more triggering is very possible given the very humid conditions? I will post a couple photos today.

Take care,
Shauno

[Michael Thomas]

Quite interesting at the moment. I suggest having a look at the 512 km Warrego Radar Loop. There is quite a large discrete cell SW of Charleville. Would have to say it looks to be a quite powerful supercell. Also storms have formed around border NW of Moree. The lower level moisture and shear west of the ranges in NSW is actually quite good (Moree is currently 26/20). Hopefully something get going around this area soon.

Michael 

[Shaun Galman]

Upper Western Storm Update 19th Nov. 2008
Hi all,
Just returned home from photographing a pretty awesome storm that built on the rear of a weakening storm at 3:30pm. Russ and I saw the shelf cloud of the building storm impact into the rear of the first storm and unleash hell in the way of a large hail core! There were at least 30-40 huge bright staccato CG firing through the unreal structure (well unreal for us out here? lol) Russ managed 10 amazing photos and I (without ND filters) managed to catch 3-4 good photos just with hand shutter reactions! We are still under the enormous anvil shield now but I can see the storms forming to the west from here which I will post a shot of when I can. The main hail/rain core passed us by to the North East which was nice as we stayed totally dry for a change :D

I will still have to take the shots off the camera but I won't until I know we'll be free of storms for a few hours. I'd like to see the storms come our way tonight that are on the line out near Bourke currently!

Take care if chasing today!
Shauno

[Shaun Galman]

Upper Western Storm Report & Photos 19th Nov. 2008

Hi guys,
Here's just a few of my photos from this afternoon's great cell. This cell impacted the first weaker HP storm at 4pm. Russ and I watched the shelf cloud race over town and collide into the first storm and become severe with a monster hail core and a beaut green tinge! I have never seen this happen before now. I wont post any of the photos from earlier on as they are just not in the same league as these. On with the shots...


An amazing hail core collapsing from the main updraft towers! Staccato CG were everywhere and only 3-4secs apart. I'd take a storm like this everyday if I could


A panorama of the flanking line which was feeding in to the Westerly side of the main cell. Those towers were just boiling over!


My first ever daylight CG with the Canon! I was only managing 1/50 of a second at f/8, 100ISO but even relying on my reactions alone I had some decent luck (though missed a few beauties let me tell you, Russ however didn't so I may post a link to his photos)


So close yet so far! lol. Just missed it to the left of shot DOH! The bolts were staccato-ing 8 to 12 times and even in broad daylight with the partial sunlight behind us the bolts had the capacity to blow out! When does this ever happen??? Not too often I bet :D


Now that's more like it. I kept remarking to Russ about just how green/aqua the right side main updraft was! I'm sure that if you could fly behind that white hail shaft, the ground would be white for sure.


Russ at work. He got a few ripper shots with his new neutral density filters on. I recommend trying them for daylight lightning!


Weakening off now 5pm-ish. Some mamatus was growing overhead on the absolutely massive anvil but soon broke into virga.
I also have to apologize for the bus in the photos? The CG were so fierce that we just had to race out to where we could see everything okay and start shooting! There aren't too many options here when we've had 35mm of rain.

See how we go if anything rolls in tonight? I'll be ready for anything :D
Kindest regards and take care,
Shauno 

[Michael Bath]

Nice structure and lightning Shauno - lovely contrast with the menacing precip area. Bus, what bus ? - adds to the scene:)

Been lightning around here this evening with some very infrequent anvil crawlers and deep booming thunder across the valleys. None of it photogenic as it's all over the place and raining too.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Shauno,

I am glad you got to it - nice flanking line. Did it seem to be a right mover? One would not have been surprised that storms were lightning active today.

Here is a look what a weakening cell looks like west of Moree!


---> all photos for 19 November 2008









Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Richary]

Somr rumbles here tonight but everything is up in the clouds here in Sydney as the rain band moves through. Forecast storms for tomorrow night though, fingers crossed. Have a bit of light rain falling at the moment with the odd flash up in the sky - enough for me to disconnect the 9 metre high earth rod from the radio gear but not enough to pull mains power on things.

[Carlos E]

Gatton has received about 100mm of rain in the past 2 hours in QLD.

A lot of rain on the Brisbane Radar atm. Going to be a very wet night there.

Edit note: Corrected an error.

[Storm Surfer-Jo]

I tock off at about 3pm up to the Lion's Lookout @ queens park to grab a few pics of the  2 storms that where around the south east region ,They where aobut to come together. A smaller cell that was in the Lockyer Valley and a larger one that was aproching the Southern Downs . But I was unable to up load thsi pic due to size . That is something I still have to marster. The storm hang out over the 2 major dams. Witch well be good. For a far amout of time and stuck to Ipswich like glue for a few hours. then headed out to the east.All along the east coast  had a great socking of rain with a small storm up in Gypie. With other west of northen rivers. I got to watch one very nice lighting show that lasted a while with lots of sheet lighting in it. Nothing like a good rumbble of thunder to end a night off.

[nmoir]

The storms which passed through brisbane this morning seemed to be rotating around themselves , looked like an east coast low for a while

[Michael Thomas]

Heavy rain seems to have caused a lot flooding in SE Qld overnight. Still early at the moment so not much information on the news. I did find this article though-

http://news.theage.com.au/national/more-storms-floods-hit-southeast-qld-20081120-6bpl.html

The Gatton AWS recorded 171mm of rain overnight and greater falls were recorded elsewhere. Usually I would have a look at radar from the strike one site however I am using very expensive internet at the moment. I did briefly look at the radar last night around 8-9pm EDT and there was a clear bow echo a with book end vortex on the ranges. I would not be surprised if there was some wind damage associated with this bow echo. 

[Michael Thomas]

As far as storms go I believe there should be decent potential for another round of severe storms. The main difference between today and yesterday is that the mid-level winds are much stronger (40knots at 500mbar). Currently GFS has the surface winds generally too NW'ly for my liking. However, I believe there is the possibility of N or NE'ly surface winds east of the ranges. With N or NE'ly surface winds there will be more than sufficient shear for supercells in SE Qld and NE NSW. CAPE should be quite respectable, replotting a forecast sounding for Brisbane with 28/20 gives CAPE of around 2000 j/kg.

Not a sure thing but certainly worth watching. I would have to say large hail and strong winds will be possible today. Rain totals from these storms will hopefully be much lower today with storms moving much faster. Tomorrow still is looking interesting as well. In fact the mid levels cool tomorrow (-12 at 500mbar) with strengthening upper level flow. If there surface winds remain N or NE'ly and deep moisture is present I have feeling that very large hail would be possible.

Michael

[Michael Thomas]

Again storms firing around Warrego with quite an intense right mover south of Roma. It may end up being a very long lived storm since there is no junk in its path.

[David C]

The storm complex that moved through Sydney metro late last night/early morning gave about two hours of frequent lightning, often times flangs, and about 30mm to Bankstown and Homebush; at times it was pretty heavy rainfall too.