Topic: SA / VIC / NSW / QLD Storms: 26-29 November 2008

[Michael Thomas]

Nice photos Matt, great structure. SW slopes are not looking great at the moment, surface winds are out of the north and dp's are around 14C. Unfortunately there is messy rain to the west. I think when this line hits the better low level moisture it might intensify, however, the chance of nice isolated storms is not good.

Such a wide area with the potential for storms today, maybe areas to the north will produce the goods.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Matt,

Well done! Very nice structure there. What times are we talking? Seeing features as you see in your photograph certainly tops off a storm chase.

The storms yesterday were rather low topped and that was also to be expected given the relatively warmer temperatures in the upper levels. In the last photograph, it seems the shear is pushing it right over.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Jimmy Deguara]

Michael,

There are many chasers who are/were pumped up for today. I am not as enthused personally given the upper level warming that has taken place. I like to see things going the other way. I agree if moisture and other conditions are right, then SW NSW would be ideal. During the night and into tomorrow may be interesting as the upper trough begins to make its impact. Then of course the air begins to become depleted of moisture. Welcome to Australia.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Michael Thomas]

Jimmy,

I agree, mid-level warming is not good. 500mbar temps are up to -6C over SE Qld which is far too warm. Further south its not that much better. Shear and low level moisture is still good and if things go well I still believe there could be so nice storms about. I don't like seeing potential storm days providing nothing more than widespread thundery rain.

[Brad Hannon]

Fantastic structure Matt (Habs)!  and Nice LP there Jimmy - I hope the family can read road maps and navigate well (better than Ray anyway!!).

I have read on WZ that Ruckle observed the same storm I was on north of Melbourne last evening.  I cant see his pics here at work for some reason, but his description matches a lot of what I saw and he goes as far as describing a wall cloud feature and funnel, neither of which I saw at the time.  Here is his post:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=17;t=000475;p=6#000080

[Ben]

Great shots Jimmy and Habs!!!! Well done on the score Habs heard your car didn't do too well though. I was up at C coast for avo with gf and could see that original storm (maybe the LP?) heading up towards Cessnock from the backend. Then that Blackheath/Black springs storm you got passed nearby and could see a similar feature on the front of it at first as your photo shows, before it carked itself pretty quickly. Would have liked to have gotten out yesterday but exams and work did not permit unfortunately.

[David C]

Michael,

There are many chasers who are/were pumped up for today. I am not as enthused personally given the upper level warming that has taken place.

Yes I agree today is pretty uninteresting for severe storms -- look forward to some rain and maybe some thunder while at dinner tonight in the city.  As for the approaching shortwave (tomorrow) - what a waste, very disappointing!

Yesterday's radar alone was very interesting in showing different storm tracks; left and right movers, one moving more sharply left along a boundary towards the Hunter. Others being dominated by the flow. Textbook stuff. Prompted me to take the long road home and go for a sniff around the outer west after work at ~ 6:30pm. Out the door and the immense anvils painted a grim picture for Sydney metro's chances. Nevertheless, I drove down the M4 hoping to at least see a base over the higher parts. It was pretty obvious that the intense cell (the one near Golspie et al) had collapsed into a mess, while the cell to its north had intensified some with nice cloud streets, inflow stinger and a rfb over the BMs. After a few minutes I felt something was missing - yes, lightning! I was amazed at an almost complete lack of visible lightning, and indeed very little static was audible with this storm. Very weird indeed and convection looked reasonably deep, at least the first LP that tracked towards Cessnock. Matt's photos above suggest it was on the shallow side so perhaps that was part of the reason.

While the chance of isolated storms is very remote for Sydney area this evening, the CGs should be better than yesterday.

btw,  nice pics guys!

[Jeff Brislane]

The LP north of Sydney yesterday. All up this event has dissapointed for eastern N.S.W. in some ways but there has still been some nice structured storms. Did anyone see the cell yesterday that went on to hit Crookwell? The second image is the same storm a bit earlier in it's life.

[Richary]

The storm front moved over here late afternoon with a bit of lightning up in the clouds but only one nearby strike (didn't see it hit, saw the flash and the thunder about 2 seconds later). Fairly heavy rain for a little while, total 10mm here at Rydalmere.

All cleared up again now, hopefully something else will come along later tonight.

[Shaun Galman]

Hi all,
I'm just about to head on out with Russ as we have a rather menacing looking bit of weather on approach now!
The power is flickering so I will go offline and return with my report and hopefully some shots when I can!

Regards,
Shauno

[Mike]

Great posts by all and in essence whether the conditions seemed a little 'off' for some, for those of us that don't get to witness these kinds of structured storms it's quite enthralling to see the photos.  Enjoy the reports and good luck Shauno with the chasing currently in your area also.

[Harley Pearman]

In addition to the storm events it appears that there was a specific storm event around Tamworth today after 9 am 28/11/2008. Judging by the the rainfall totals topping 79 mm at the Tamworth Airport, 71 mm at nearby Weabonga and falls of 40 to 70 mm centred around Tamworth, it would be interesting to see what happened here. The figures are in stark contrast when compared to the surrounding region.

I was ready to do some chasing and storm photography after work today but the storm event finished up being somewhat disappointing.

A squall line with severe thunderstorm warnings on it for damaging wind and heavy rain was barrelling towards western Sydney after 4 pm but by the time it reached the Parramatta area, it had weakened out to thundery rain. There was some lightning to start with including 1 observed cloud to ground lightning strike but the lightning flashes soon petered out to nothing.

Highest totals from it included 18 mm at Fairfield City Farm, 12 mm at Seven Hills and West Pennant Hills and 10 mm at Willmot. The rest of the Sydney scored anywhere between 4 and 9 mm with lighter falls toward the coast. The system seem to weaken as it crossed the Sydney Basin.

On another note, I was at Regents Park between 12.30 and 1 pm 28/11/2008 and the locality experienced a heavy downpour for a short period of time but no thunder was heard.

Harley Pearman

[Dave Nelson]

Hi gang,
             
Thur, 27th Nov. I chased the cell that went across Kurrijong and up across the Hawkesbury
I didnt chase too far up the Putty Rd as places to view from become non-existant cuz of the bush.

coming back down to Windsor I could see 2 more cells over the mountains.  one was over Katoomba
and the other some-what closer and over the edge of the mountains. 
This is the one I viewed and photo'ed for some time from the Northern Rd (south of Penrith and M4)
It had a nice low precip base and looked much like the one Jimmy saw further north.

cheers
Dave N

[Brad Hannon]

I have read on WZ that Ruckle observed the same storm I was on north of Melbourne last evening.  I cant see his pics here at work for some reason, but his description matches a lot of what I saw and he goes as far as describing a wall cloud feature and funnel, neither of which I saw at the time.

ooh...quoting myself, that's a worry

I have now seen the pics by Ruckle on WZ I mentioned earlier and they do show some interesting features including a possible funnel that I had also seen (from a bit further away) prior to taking any of my pics and had amazingly forgotten to describe it in my report earlier in this thread.  I now am quite confident that we had a rapidly developed rotating updraft complete with wall cloud, funnel and inflow tail as described and documented in posts by myself (Hamlan) and Ruckle on WZ in this thread here:

http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=17;t=000475;p=6#000089

The radar archive shows the cell erupt after coming off the Macedon Ranges at 06.30UTC just to the east of Macedon.  By 07.30UTC I am wondering if it is displaying a left move because it seems to alter from a SE track to E toward Kinglake and then back to ESE which it then maintains.  The radar also corresponds with my observations at that time and location when the updraft base structure was visible - radar shows the high reflectivities at the NW extreme of the storm (rather than embedded which usually occurs here!) which is exactly where I was looking.

Based on the persistent updraft region that I witnessed for over half an hour and some evidence of rotation, a possible left move and my and Ruckle's pics, I'm starting to think this was a supercell or certainly pretty close by definition.  What do others think of this possibility?

---> Melbourne radar loop

[Richary]

A squall line with severe thunderstorm warnings on it for damaging wind and heavy rain was barrelling towards western Sydney after 4 pm but by the time it reached the Parramatta area, it had weakened out to thundery rain. There was some lightning to start with including 1 observed cloud to ground lightning strike but the lightning flashes soon petered out to nothing.

Harley, sounds like you are close to me. I had a service call at Granville/Parra this afternoon - nice to finish the day close to home. I live just up the road at Rydalmere. As mentioned a pretty boring storm from crossing here. Oh well, sooner or later will get a good one.

We need a Christmas lunch, will post something in the social forum.