Date: Sat, 3 Oct 1998 08:12:30 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney's Weather...
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Hi everyone,
	I have been looking at yesterday morning's sounding from Sydney
Airport.  It shows significant dry air above about a subsidence inversion
at about 2200m.  Above the inversion, conditionally unstable conditions
exist from 2500m up to about 5300m, again from about 5900m to 7400m, and
from about 8200m to 8600m.  Given surface humidity (made an estimate for
the inland areas), I calculated a temperature of about 43 C for
significant convection (for yesterday).  If there is a little more low
level moisture or if the lapse becomes a bit more unstable, we could see
some significant convection today without such an extreme surface
temperature. The mountains to the west will also aid lifting.  The current
forecast is for the chance of afternoon thundery showers. 
	I have left a copy in my account:
	http://hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au/~m3052695/sydney1.jpg   (543K)
	
	- Paul.

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Date: Sat, 3 Oct 1998 01:39:42 -0400
From: David Hart 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Weather's effect on the election.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi list!

While I helped Jacob start this list, my intention is to be here as a
technical advisor, and leave the  list to you Australians. 

I do read almost all the posts, and I may bring up a (stupid) question
from now and then. In that spirit let me pose this question, how will the
weather effect the election (if at all)?

In the U.S. the conventional wisdom (?) is that "bad" weather will bring
out the most motivated voters, while "nice" weather favours the
incumbents. Voting patterns are much different here as we do not have
mandatory suffrage. If I choose not to vote in a U.S election, I face no
fines. None-the-less, this theory would have it that inclement weather in
the the One Nation strong holds will favor Pauline Hanson, but fair
weather will benefit the coalition. Any thoughts?

Anyway, go out and vote, and then enjoy a nice spring weekend at the
beach.

David Hart
Brookline MA, USA

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Date: Sat, 03 Oct 1998 16:20:04 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Weather's effect on the election.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

We've been informed here that our "nice" weather should be good for
voters in SE Queensland, and it's the same for us - if it's raining
here, I think that votes tend to be down.  *But* not by much - voting in
Australia is compulsory, and there is a massive $20 fine if you don't
:-)

I guess that theory could be true, at the moment many Australians are
fed up with the government and are angry at the way things are run.  Bad
weather may make them even more uptight and therefore be more likely to
put a protest vote against all the other governments and vote for One
Nation since they are something "new" and certainly very different!

But overall I believe that looking at those types of variables is really
just grasping at straws, I don't believe it would effect many people -
only a few disgruntled voters would be effected.  But then again, it
will be a tight election :-)

Anthony

David Hart wrote:

> Hi list!
>
> While I helped Jacob start this list, my intention is to be here as a
> technical advisor, and leave the  list to you Australians.
>
> I do read almost all the posts, and I may bring up a (stupid) question
>
> from now and then. In that spirit let me pose this question, how will
> the
> weather effect the election (if at all)?
>
> In the U.S. the conventional wisdom (?) is that "bad" weather will
> bring
> out the most motivated voters, while "nice" weather favours the
> incumbents. Voting patterns are much different here as we do not have
> mandatory suffrage. If I choose not to vote in a U.S election, I face
> no
> fines. None-the-less, this theory would have it that inclement weather
> in
> the the One Nation strong holds will favor Pauline Hanson, but fair
> weather will benefit the coalition. Any thoughts?
>
> Anyway, go out and vote, and then enjoy a nice spring weekend at the
> beach.
>
> David Hart
> Brookline MA, USA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Water Vapour image
Date: Sat, 3 Oct 1998 17:41:50 +1000
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The storm was almost a non-possibility. We had 8 chasers congregate on the
infamous Rooty Hill. It was a great meeting but no storms were had. Best
luck in the coming days.

Jimmy

-----Original Message-----
From: Matt Smith 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, October 03, 1998 2:46 PM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Water Vapour image


>isnt it some kind of record ? 5 days in a row over 30 degree's in Sydney,
>and its not even summer ?
>just asking.
>thanks
>Matt
>
>ps> praying for a storm tonight. its 31.9 at the moment,and i think that
>front is almost upon us,

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Date: Sat, 3 Oct 1998 17:42:35 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney's Weather...
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In the end there was not enough low level moisture for any significant
convection today.  The wind was a dry north westerly swinging to a
westerly by the afternoon - a north to north-easterly in the low levels
might have been enough to produce some storms. 
- Paul. 

On Sat, 3 Oct 1998, Paul Graham wrote:

> Hi everyone,
> 	I have been looking at yesterday morning's sounding from Sydney
> Airport.  It shows significant dry air above about a subsidence inversion
> at about 2200m.  Above the inversion, conditionally unstable conditions
> exist from 2500m up to about 5300m, again from about 5900m to 7400m, and
> from about 8200m to 8600m.  Given surface humidity (made an estimate for
> the inland areas), I calculated a temperature of about 43 C for
> significant convection (for yesterday).  If there is a little more low
> level moisture or if the lapse becomes a bit more unstable, we could see
> some significant convection today without such an extreme surface
> temperature. The mountains to the west will also aid lifting.  The current
> forecast is for the chance of afternoon thundery showers. 
> 	I have left a copy in my account:
> 	http://hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au/~m3052695/sydney1.jpg   (543K)
> 	
> 	- Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Weather's effect on the election.
Date: Sat, 3 Oct 1998 17:43:44 +1000
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All I know is they put the election on a holiday weekend and that should
have some effect on how people vote with such a beautiful day at the beach.

Jimmy
-----Original Message-----
From: David Hart 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, October 03, 1998 3:40 PM
Subject: aussie-weather: Weather's effect on the election.


>Hi list!
>
>While I helped Jacob start this list, my intention is to be here as a
>technical advisor, and leave the  list to you Australians.
>
>I do read almost all the posts, and I may bring up a (stupid) question
>from now and then. In that spirit let me pose this question, how will the
>weather effect the election (if at all)?
>
>In the U.S. the conventional wisdom (?) is that "bad" weather will bring
>out the most motivated voters, while "nice" weather favours the
>incumbents. Voting patterns are much different here as we do not have
>mandatory suffrage. If I choose not to vote in a U.S election, I face no
>fines. None-the-less, this theory would have it that inclement weather in
>the the One Nation strong holds will favor Pauline Hanson, but fair
>weather will benefit the coalition. Any thoughts?
>
>Anyway, go out and vote, and then enjoy a nice spring weekend at the
>beach.
>
>David Hart
>Brookline MA, USA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 3 Oct 1998 17:54:00 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Cirrus Kelvin-Helmhotz...
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Some rare and interesting Cirrus Kelvin-Helmholtz was observed to the west
of Sydney this afternoon resulting from wind shear in the upper air.  I
will sumarise some information from the book titled "Weather" by William
J. Burroughs, Bob Crowder, Ted Robertson, Eleanor Vallier-Talbot and
Richard Whitaker... This kind of Cirrus has a wave appearence and only
lasts for a few minutes before dissipating.  They have a distinctive
"corkscrew pattern" as a result of a complete overturning of the air and
ice crystals - they are very dangerous to aircraft flying at those
altitudes.  These types of waves may be common in the upper troposphere
but often there is insufficient moisture for them to be seen so they are a
major source of "Clear air turbulence".  The phenomena was first desribed
in the late nineteenth century by a Scottish physicist, Baron Kelvin and a
German physicist, Hermann von Helmholtz, hence the name Cirrus
Kelvin-Helmholtz.
- Paul.