Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 09:46:35 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
Subject: aussie-weather: Great Atmospheric Severe Storm Potential For Melbourne Today
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

Well - the models are really showing a great potential for severe storms
in the upper atmosphere, however I don't know if Melbourne is really
going to get enough moisture to help produce moisture.

TT's are 50
Jetstream is very divergent and strong
Not much moisture in upper levels (until later on moisture levels are
expected to increase during the day though)
Good vertical velocities in the 700hPa region
Pressure will be low (1004-1008)
Cooler Air will be moving in aloft

At 7am - Melbourne's DP was 9C, and the RH was 59% at 17C - too dry for
severe storms.  Unless of course it rises, but with hot N'ly and NW'ly
winds, that is unfortunately unlikely.

Anthony Cornelius

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 09:46:43 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Brisbane Webcam Animation
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The web cam points south, I'm not sure exactly what direction it points
south though, I thought that it pointed to the WSW, but a friend of mine
thinks it points just a tad to the east of south...but since I'm not
sure, I'd probably say that my friend is right.  As he works in the
city, and I'm not very familiar with the city geography!

Anthony Cornelius

Paul Mossman wrote:
> 
> If I remeber my Brisbane geography well.......the cam appears to be
> pointing in a nw direction. If I remember the reports, there was severe
> damage to the Fortitude valley area, and that is where the cam appears
> to be pointing. (Fortitude Valley is NW of Brisbane)
> 
>     ---------------------------------------------------------------
> 
>   Paul MOSSMAN 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 09:46:48 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Brisbane Webcam Animation FUNNEL FUNNEL FUNNEL
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Paul - I've watched the webcam image very closely now for a while. 
It does look like a funnel, but I believe that it is the sun angle
because it remains stationary and then suddenly disappears.  Also - it
is unlikely that a tornado should occur before the gust front itself -
especially on a mesocylonic thunderstorm.  If it was a downburst
thunderstorm (with a bow echo) then perhaps it could occur.  But most
tornadoes occur towards the back of a mesocyclonic storm - except
sometimes they can occur in the middle, but these aren't normaly very
strong (ie violent)  I have never heard of a mesocyclonic storm that has
produced a tornado before the gust front - it is perhaps possible that
there has been one, but I have never heard anything like that.

I was then thinking about the possibility of a gustnado, but considering
the speed of the storm, it would be unlikely that the gustnado would be
stationary.

It certainly does look like a funnel - it's very convincing indeed, in
fact had it occurred at the back of the storm, I would probably agree
with you!  But I believe old mother nature loves playing tricks on us! 
I could be wrong though, anyone else have any opinions?

Anthony Cornelius

paulmoss at tpgi.com.au wrote:
> 
> To save to you all eyestrain......the funnel is in the 15.02 - 15.04 time
> frame.....check it out!! Top right hand corner.....its a definite funnel!! NO
> doubt about it!! I thought in the earlier shots (which I reckon shows the
> tornado as well.........it might have been the sun of the cam angle....) but
> its definitely a funnel!
> 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:08:29 +1000
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I agree Anthony. I am not a firm believer in sea breezes having a sudden and
huge impact on change instorm strength. I believe the loacal geography has
more impact on this in conjunction with other factors.

Jimmy
-----Original Message-----
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Friday, October 16, 1998 6:22 AM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...


>I'll answer this for James :-)
>
>Jeff Calaghan is the head of the QLD Severe Weather Department - but the
>problem is the media always calls any severe storms here a "mini
>tornado" or a "mini cyclone"  My guess would be that the Warwick storm
>damage was predominantly caused by microbursts or perhaps even
>derecho's?  Derecho's have been thought to blame for many damage paths
>that tornadoes didn't not create.  Derecho's also tend to occur in bow
>echo storms...
>
>A note about the "sea breeze front" - our winds in the morning were
>N'ly, later in the morning they were NW'ly and towards the afternoon
>they were a stiff W'ly - but it was still very humid.  NE'ly winds
>kicked in when the storm was very close - about 3-4km, I thought that
>this occurred because of the massive inflow from the storm.  As some
>large storms can "change" the immediate weather around them to "suit"
>themselves.  Perhaps this is what happened?  Or perhaps it was a
>combination of both?
>
>Anthony Cornelius
>
>Paul Graham wrote:
>
>> Interesting...I wonder who you spoke to?  The reports I have heard
>> tonight
>> about this storm indicate the possibility of a tornado.  Eyewitnesses
>> talk
>> of swirling clouds and the mayor descibed it as a mini-tornado.
>> Perhaps
>> the damage is indicative of straight line wind?  - Paul.
>>
>> James Chambers wrote:
>> I asked him about the damage in Warwick and straight line winds were
>> responsible.  There was no evidence of a tornado.  Soon I hope to have
>> a
>> full report on the events of Tuesday, October 13 1998 on my site.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:43:34 +1000
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I tend to disagree, ( as you probably already guess ), although most sea
breezes are shallow inversions I still like to get storms on the sea breeze
surface front, personally I think this played a part in the Singleton
storms. I agree local geography holds a key.

On a local scale the sea breeze although shallow is enough to stop
convection starting at the surface, on a hot summers day when its 24C here
and 40C at Jimmy's place I can often see convection occurring over the
western Sydney Basin, but above me its clear.

Michael



>I agree Anthony. I am not a firm believer in sea breezes having a sudden
and
>huge impact on change instorm strength. I believe the loacal geography has
>more impact on this in conjunction with other factors.
>

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Current Melbourne Weather
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 10:53:06 +1000
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The weather in Melbourne at the moment is looking quite interesting, we had
some early rain which has now cleared, the cloud is breaking up and we are
getting more sun, but there is still a fair amount of high cloud, moving
rapidily across the sky, there is also some cumulus starting to form,
temperatures are now starting to rise rapidily with a strong northerly.

Here's hoping for some severe weather, thunderstorms are forecasted for the
late afternoon.

I'll keep everyone informed throughout the day.

Nick

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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 11:22:53 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Brisbane Weather animation.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I disagree with Anthony on the following points:

It is most probable that a funnel can or could from on a gust front. If
that was a supercell or mesocyclone, then as we are still not entirely
sure what causes tonadoes then it is to easy to dismiss the picture.
First off i would have agreed with the theory that it might have been
then sun. BUT, the later images definitely grow darker (an indication
that the sun has been hidden behind the clouds or indeed filtered
somewhat). The funnel is there for at least 2 - 3 minutes, which is
neither common or uncommon as tornadoes go. There is No set limit for
tornado "life", and to to say there is would immediately place oneself
in the "quack" department.

Now for the Geography, my Nan lives near Brisbane, and I have been to
Brisbane some time. After perusing the local CDB maps, the cam is not
pointing South for one main fact - if it was it would be following the
river for some distance. However the river leaves the image to the left
suggesting the southward flow around the CBD. Also, there is no high
rise development in screen. If the cam was pointing south, the city
surely would be on the right side of the picture, not starting to the
left side like the shot shows.

However I believe what we are seeing is a Gustnado - a gust front
tornado. Quoting from NOAA glossary on severe weather terms: " a
gustnado is a small weak tornado usually short-lived that occurs along
the gust front of a thunderstorm. Even then I still believe that the pic
is of a tornado. IT moves along with the front which is moving as the
statpics & radar images show in a North - North east fashion. If the cam
was pointing south the main action would come straight onto the cam or
more from the right side of the cam. The action comes from the left side
(out of the sw) and moves towards and off to the right in a North -
North eats direction.

No i have no doubts that it "appears" to be a condensation funnel,
backed up the the damage occurred in the Fortitude valley area form a
supposed tornado. This is where I believe the cam is pointing.

What do others think?? Pay close attention to where the storm comes
from, bearing in mind that it comes from the W - SW.

Regards, Paul from Taree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 11:30:31 +1000
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Sorry, Michael,

I tend to disagree again. In my experience with observations here in
Schofields, I have not observed too many situations where the sea breeze and
only the sea breeze has SIGNIFICANTLY caused explosive development of a
storm. In fact sea breezes and/or changes can reduce some potential storms
by destroying convection as you have said. The only way I believe that sea
breezes can increase the severity of the storm flow is the enhancement of a
N-NE geostrophic air flow.

As Anthony pointed out with the Brisbane storm, winds were still W-NW or
perhaps from the N. the chane in direction was caused as a result of the
updraught associated with the storm. I have observed the situation for years
in Sydney and the Central Coast in recent years. I have even observed the
effects of the sea breezes in storms around Camden but not too often.

Storms will develop with the existences of moisture in lower layers of the
atmosphere, anbd all the other factors. There have been a few circumstances
that the moisture has been supplied by the fact the sea breeze or a more NE
component along the coast aided in development of storms but im most cases,
these occurred over the N suburbs of Sydney and Central Coast.

-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, October 17, 1998 10:41 AM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...


>I tend to disagree, ( as you probably already guess ), although most sea
>breezes are shallow inversions I still like to get storms on the sea breeze
>surface front, personally I think this played a part in the Singleton
>storms. I agree local geography holds a key.
>
>On a local scale the sea breeze although shallow is enough to stop
>convection starting at the surface, on a hot summers day when its 24C here
>and 40C at Jimmy's place I can often see convection occurring over the
>western Sydney Basin, but above me its clear.
>
>Michael
>
>
>
>>I agree Anthony. I am not a firm believer in sea breezes having a sudden
>and
>>huge impact on change instorm strength. I believe the loacal geography has
>>more impact on this in conjunction with other factors.
>>
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 11:46:40 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jimmy & Michael I agree with both of you. The reasons why are:

1, Jimmy is right the seabreezes themselves do not cause thunderstorms
therwise the east coats of Australia in Summer would be the best place
to live!! Imagine it - storms everyday! This doesnt happen. However,
living near where Michael lives ( iused to live at Oak Flats Michael), I
have seen a type of orographic storm development, and my parents have
been caught in such. A case in point was a summers day, no predicted
storm activity. Howevere, on the ranges to the sw towards MOss Vale
Goulburn way, dark clouds had brewed. My parents at that time were
camping in a place called oallens Fjord, between Gouldburn and Nowra.
They said that they had a very heavye storm, with torrential rain,
lightning and gusty winds ( an obvious thunderstorm.) Now, no storm
activity was forecast - is there such a ting as an Orographic storm?
This then would take in account that the warm moisture lade seabreeze,
helped along by the convection being forced up into cooler layers of the
atmosphere by the seabreeze. This would not happen in the Sydney basin
as the seabreeze rarely makes it to the blue mountains. But in
Wollongong it does, due to the proximity of the ranges. 

What do you think Jimmy?


Regards, Paul from Taree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "DEBRA McDONALD" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Current melbourne obs.
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 11:50:01 +1000
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X-Status: 

Melbourne 17-10-98 
Time - 11:44 
Current temp. - 24.4 
Dew Point - 4.7 
Wind - NNE 22km/h
Air pressure -  1002.9 
Humidity - 28% 

Looks like the early rain won't help much.  Look more and more unlikely to
get anything at all except a bit of rain.  Typical boring melbourne!!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 11:59:41 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Current Taree Obs.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Temp: 30.8c
Wind light NW about 5km/h
Baro Pressure: 1019hpa & falling
Humidity: 38%

Nuthing happenin here!! Damn!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne 12.20pm  update
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 12:25:13 +1000
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12.22pm - Bayswater

Barometer has dropped from 1020 (6pm last night) -> 1010 (6am this
morning) -> currently 1004!!!

26.8 degrees, stiff northerly wind, AcCas, some small embedded Cu under As.
Localised virga - looking promising - YES, YES, YES!!!

Jane
Melbourne

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "dpn" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne Weather
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 13:27:00 +1100
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I agree Debra. There is a lot of Ac in the sky with some virga. We have had
a few spots of rain her in Kilsyth this morning. There is evidence of some
isolated storms around the state at the moment. Observed some decaying
anvils to the west and Sw not long ago. But I think the best we can expect
is some brief Thundery showers. Definately no chance of severe storms. Dane
Newman

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 12:35:49 +1000
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Yes, I do agree that an isolated storm can in this case be aided by the
effects of sea breezes but definitely the topography has an impact in this
case. This is similar to the situation in the northern sunurbs on occasional
situations. But again the topography has a signifiant effect on development
as the cumulus tend to get enhanced as they move E of Schofields. To really
study the sea breeze effect, one must plot the sea breeze front daily.
Michael Thompson also observed this case in the northern tablelands but
again on high ground. These situations tend to be very isolated.

But in the case of very severe thunderstorms, particuarly supercells, the
energy involved is huge and a seabreeze cannot simply pump up sufficient
amounts of moisture into the storms as was the case in Brisbane.

Anyway, this debate can go on forever. There obviously has to be some things
that chases tend to disagree in... This where learning takes place...with
evidence of course.

Jimmy


-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, October 17, 1998 11:45 AM
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...


>Jimmy & Michael I agree with both of you. The reasons why are:
>
>1, Jimmy is right the seabreezes themselves do not cause thunderstorms
>therwise the east coats of Australia in Summer would be the best place
>to live!! Imagine it - storms everyday! This doesnt happen. However,
>living near where Michael lives ( iused to live at Oak Flats Michael), I
>have seen a type of orographic storm development, and my parents have
>been caught in such. A case in point was a summers day, no predicted
>storm activity. Howevere, on the ranges to the sw towards MOss Vale
>Goulburn way, dark clouds had brewed. My parents at that time were
>camping in a place called oallens Fjord, between Gouldburn and Nowra.
>They said that they had a very heavye storm, with torrential rain,
>lightning and gusty winds ( an obvious thunderstorm.) Now, no storm
>activity was forecast - is there such a ting as an Orographic storm?
>This then would take in account that the warm moisture lade seabreeze,
>helped along by the convection being forced up into cooler layers of the
>atmosphere by the seabreeze. This would not happen in the Sydney basin
>as the seabreeze rarely makes it to the blue mountains. But in
>Wollongong it does, due to the proximity of the ranges.
>
>What do you think Jimmy?
>
>
>Regards, Paul from Taree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 12:45:17 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Melbourne Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Jane & Dane:

Looking at the GMS-5 satpic, threes not a lot happening near you. Sorry.
However, there is some development to the NW of Melbourne, and it is
hard to tell what type as yet. So cross your fingers. Lets hope that it
takes off!! Good luck. Least you have the prospect of something. Unlike
us east coasters at the moment, who have 31.8c temps, low humidity and a
swirling low wind.

"Just a beautiful summers day here" !! Damn!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Joining AMOS
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 12:49:54 +1000
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Matthew, What is your e-mail address.

Jimmy
-----Original Message-----
From: Matthew Piper 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Friday, October 16, 1998 7:00 PM
Subject: aussie-weather: Joining AMOS


>Hi All,
>
>Does anybody know how to become a member of AMOS?
>
>Matthew
>

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 12:56:45 +1000
From: Matthew Piper 
X-Accept-Language: en
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Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Joining AMOS
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Jimmy,

My email address is mjpiper at ozemail.com.au

Matthew

Jimmy Deguara wrote:

> Matthew, What is your e-mail address.
>
> Jimmy
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Matthew Piper 
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
> Date: Friday, October 16, 1998 7:00 PM
> Subject: aussie-weather: Joining AMOS
>
> >Hi All,
> >
> >Does anybody know how to become a member of AMOS?
> >
> >Matthew

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

X-Originating-Ip: [202.12.90.131]
From: "Patrick Tobin" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Today's conditions
Date: Fri, 16 Oct 1998 19:59:47 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Everyone,

Patrick from Canberra here. Apart from a warm, NW windy day (temp 22.6 
with DP of 8.8 at12.30 EST) with a few lenticular clouds over the ranges 
and a bit of cirrus and cirrostratus,things are fairly quiet here.

Some interesting Victorian observations though .. at 12.16 EST it has 
already got to 36 (DP 2.6) in Mildura (could they be heading for a 
record?)

There appears to be some patches of moisture around Victoria (Port Fairy 
and Mt Gambier have DP's above 14.5 - that is reasonable for this part 
of the world. I know it is low by Qld and East Coast standards but could 
still give some interesting weather.)

I also note that Albury and Wagga have DP's in the mid teens. Compare 
that with Mt Buller at -12.6.

On another thread, the sea breeze does play an important role in 
generating storms around Canberra. This happens when the front arrives 
between 5pm - 9pm and there has already been significant convection over 
the ranges to the west (but not quite enough to get any
storms going). It gets more interesting if there are already storms in 
place and their east flowing outflows meet the west moving sea breeze 
front!!

I would say that in the Canberra region, where there is the potential 
for severe storms, they have generally formed well before the arrival of 
the sea breeze so far inland.

Hope Melbourne gets a bit more interesting by the end of the day..

 

______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Dew Pint Temperature, Please Explain?
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 13:24:31 +1000
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Hi all

Can someone explain to me what the dew point temp is and how high does it
have to be for severe thunderstorms?

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: disarm at braenet.com.au
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 13:40:41 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney Storms On Sunday !!!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

well i put an email with the same topic about 3 days ago.. and well it
looks like it could very well happen!!!
glad you melbournites had some action.. hope sydney has some as well!

heres the 7.20pm saturday update.:


METROPOLITAN FORECAST
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 7:20pm on Saturday the 17th of October 1998
For Sunday   
Sydney Metropolitan:
Fire weather warning for Very High to Extreme fire danger. A Total Fire Ban is
in force from midnight Saturday until midnight Sunday.
Hot day with fresh to strong northwest wind tending westerly and easing in the
evening. Cloud increasing with some rain later and the chance of a
thunderstorm.

Headline :    Hot. Windy. Late rain.

Precis  Forecasts and Temperatures:
Sydney      Hot. Windy.
Min:    17    Max:    35

Liverpool   Hot. Windy.
Min:    15    Max:    36

Richmond    Hot. Windy. 
Min:    14    Max:    36

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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 11:46:35 +0800
From: Michael Fewings 
Organization: Edith Cowan Uni
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To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Sea Breeze
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Hi all,

I agree that the sea breeze won't on its own produce a storm. But in my
experience A sea breeze can add that extra lift to get severe storms
going in the early part of the day. I think though they would have got
going by themselves anyway. I observed the sea breeze front in Esperance
that was parallel to the direction of the storm. This ended up being a
severe storm that wandered along the coast by developing slightly inland
all the time. The sea breeze definitely aided this storm as there was
nothing severe about any of the storms inland until about 4.30 in the
afternoon. This storm was going at about 1.30, much earlier that
anywhere else.
I agree that geography plays more of a part than the sea breeze, but I
can't be counted out.

Michael Fewings, Perth

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: disarm at braenet.com.au
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 13:47:59 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: that and this
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

for those who care, from now on if storms eventuate, and i cant make it out
to western sydney, i will be up in the tallest tower in bicentenial park,
camera in hand. its close,free and has a 360degree view of the sydney area...
Matt

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: disarm at braenet.com.au
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 13:57:55 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Storms in sydney on sunday!! 
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

well i put an email with the same topic about 3 days ago.. and well it
looks like it could very well happen!!!
glad you melbournites had some action.. hope sydney has some as well!

heres the 7.20pm saturday update.:


METROPOLITAN FORECAST
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 7:20pm on Saturday the 17th of October 1998
For Sunday   
Sydney Metropolitan:
Fire weather warning for Very High to Extreme fire danger. A Total Fire Ban is
in force from midnight Saturday until midnight Sunday.
Hot day with fresh to strong northwest wind tending westerly and easing in the
evening. Cloud increasing with some rain later and the chance of a
thunderstorm.

Headline :    Hot. Windy. Late rain.

Precis  Forecasts and Temperatures:
Sydney      Hot. Windy.
Min:    17    Max:    35

Liverpool   Hot. Windy.
Min:    15    Max:    36

Richmond    Hot. Windy. 
Min:    14    Max:    36

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 14:20:32 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne Conditions.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Ok Melbournites.......whats happening? I have just checked the satpics,
and the JCU image and noticed that the NW "seems" to be intensifying,
but not quickly enough.....maybe just rain?? Whats happning down on the
ground?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 12:26:47 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob 
Subject: aussie-weather: Adelaide and Sydney temps
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 


I notice in Adelaide at 1:20pm CST the temp is 35C, winds still from the NW
at 47km/h and 999 hPa.

I also see that Sydney is expecting 35C tomorrow.

Sydney Metropolitan:
Very High fire danger in the west. 
Fine warm and sunny today with freshening northeast to northwest
wind.
Hot tomorrow with fresh to strong northwest wind. Cloud increasing
later with some rain Sunday night.

Headline :    Becoming windy. Hot
City maximum for Sunday     about:    35

Here in Perth its showery, and cold, temp is 16.1C

Jacob

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 14:33:23 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Perth :  Arrival of Front.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Hi Jacob. When the front hit, was it accompanied by any squall line? Or
any frontal activity - or just showers/ rain?

Paul from Taree.

http://www2.tpgi.com.au/users/paulmoss

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne Observations
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 14:39:31 +1000
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It's clearing at the moment, large area of blue sky moving over at the
moment, temp is rising as well as the dew point, it was around 5 at 8am but
over 10 now. Northerly wind is strong, there is some cloud to the west,
mainly high cloud and some ,statocumulus castellanus.

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 12:39:46 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Perth :  Arrival of Front.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

At 02:33 PM 17-10-98 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Jacob. When the front hit, was it accompanied by any squall line? Or
>any frontal activity - or just showers/ rain?
>
>Paul from Taree.
>
>http://www2.tpgi.com.au/users/paulmoss

nope, just a bit of wind with showers.

Jacob

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Larger Cumulus to west of Melbourne
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 15:09:34 +1000
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Some larger cumulus clouds have developed to the west of Melbourne, any
other Melbourne residents care to share their thoughts?

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "dpn" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne Weather update
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:12:48 +1100
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Not much happening here Paul. Temp City 27.0 dp 11.8. Airport 25.0 DP 12.0.
Here in Kilsyth it is now 26.2 bar 1000hpa it is down to 995 at Portland.
very strong squally North wind 32kts at the airport. scattered Ac still a
bit of virga. Light shower here about 20 mins ago. No access to Bom Radar
since the trial finished. No energex real time lightning strike data like
they are lucky to have in Brisbane. I used to have a stomwise lightning
detector bur its still at the ex-missus house in Ferntree Gully. A little
bit of faint static on the AM radio so they are 1 or 2 weak storms or
Thundery showers around somewhere. local experience tells me that the best
we can hope for is maybe a couple of thundery showers. Dane. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Severe thunderstorm warning for Victoria
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 15:13:32 +1000
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NEWS FLASH - FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTSevere Thunderstorm Advice
Issued at 1508 on Saturday the 17th of October 1998 for all DISTRICTS.
Thunderstorms over Western areas of the state, will extend eastwards across
the
entire State during this afternoon and overnight.  Some of these storms are
likely to be severe with strong wind squalls possible.
This Advice should not be used after 9pm Sunday.

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Thunderstorm warning Melbourne
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:05:56 +1000
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Thunderstorm Warning
Issued at 1510 on Saturday the 17th of October 1998 forSaturday evening
andnight
Local thunderstorms are expected throughout the metropolitan area Sturday
evening and tonight..

No idea how severe they will be, but it's looking pretty good

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:10:37 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Thunderstorm warning Melbourne
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Great to hear!! You guys & gals down there have been so optomistic!! Esp
after everyone keeps telling you _ no....lets all hope now!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:17:17 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Dew Pint Temperature, Please Explain?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Hi Nick,

The "dew point temperature" or "DP" is the temperature that you need to
lower to air to get dew.  So if there is a DP of 20, and the temperature
is 26C, you need to lower the current air temperature down to 20C to get
dew.  It is like a measure of moisture just like the relative humidity,
but is a much better indicator of the amount of moisture in the air.

For example, the day could start out at 18C with 100% humidity, then in
the afternoon the temperature could be 30C with 47% humidity.  This
would indicate a decrease in the amount of moisture in the air.  But
this is not the case.  The DP is still 18C, meaning that the same amount
of moisture is still in the air.  It's just that RH (relative humidity)
is the percentage of the amount of water that the air is capable of
holding.  I always try and convert RH/Temps into DP values whenever I
forecast.

As for how high does the DP have to be for severe storms, I'm not
entirely sure.  But this may help:
A DP in high single figures or low double figures is average.  A DP from
about 14-15 to 18 is high, and 19-24 is very high and 24> is extreme.  I
normally think 18-19 is the min threshold for good severe storms - but
obviously it can be lower - pending on the atmospheric conditions (ie
the moist lapse rate, dry lapse rate etc)

Anthony Cornelius

Nick Sykes wrote:
> 
> Hi all
> 
> Can someone explain to me what the dew point temp is and how high does it
> have to be for severe thunderstorms?
> 
> Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Looking Good
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:38:43 +1000
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The clouds to the west and north west of Melbourne are thickening, the winds
are gusting, everything is moving very quickly, oh please let there be a
severe storm.

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: GMS-5 of Vic
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:41:27 +1000
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The latest GMS-5 sattellte picture shows the developing storms over western
Victoria, looks like Melbourne will be in there path?


http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/satellite/gilatest.shtml

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:45:56 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbounre Storm Warnings.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Good luck Nick! The rest of us all have our fingers crossed for you. The
stpics are looking better and better......so you will never know! I
noticed that the front in the Great Australian Bight seems to also have
intensified.......this might be better news for us easterners......

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: no funnel sorry
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:54:58 +1000
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Hi all

I'd just like to agree with Anthony - that's no funnel on the webcam.  Just
some sort of 'mirage' caused by the sun!  Also, wrong place for that sort of
funnel anyway - ahead of the gust front? Sorry people.  (It's no gustnado
either)

James Chambers
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Brisbane Weather animation.
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 16:59:15 +1000
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>
>What do others think?? Pay close attention to where the storm comes
>from, bearing in mind that it comes from the W - SW.
>
Sorry, I'm ever the doubter and say nay. It just does not look right to me,
I think it is some light reflection on the camera.

You asked !!

Regards
Michael

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: seabreeze front
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:00:26 +1000
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Hi again

I was told by the guy in the severe weather section that the Bellbowrie
hailstorm of November 1995 also intensified after the seabreeze front hit
it.  That was a supercell with 8cm hail that smashed roof tiles on more than
500 houses.  (I have the report somewhere in my site)  It must have some
sort of major effect - especially if the guys at the severe weather section
say so!
James Chambers
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:07:38 +1000
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No doubt about what you say, sea breeze alone is not enough, but it is often
the final straw that pushes the storm to severe from being just another
storm.

As the sea breeze moves westwards it tends to push up the hot air in front
of it, but not only that the warming of the sea breeze air will rise too and
this will contain more moisture.

Michael




>I tend to disagree again. In my experience with observations here in
>Schofields, I have not observed too many situations where the sea breeze
and
>only the sea breeze has SIGNIFICANTLY caused explosive development of a
>storm. In fact sea breezes and/or changes can reduce some potential storms
>by destroying convection as you have said. The only way I believe that sea
>breezes can increase the severity of the storm flow is the enhancement of a
>N-NE geostrophic air flow.
>

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:10:43 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: seabreeze front
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Hey no problem with people expressing opinion....its great!
BUT.....thats no mirage image.............and who is to say where a
tornado OR gustnado forms?? They dont even know what REALLY causes them
yet! Its just too...easy to talk away it........but thats a condensation
funnel.....I mean what sort of odds would you have to have to get a
freak "mirage" during a severe storm anyway?? sorry.......dont really
agree with that.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Current Shellharbour Weather - Some cumulus to the south
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:11:43 +1000
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5pm 17th October 1998

24C
1008 and falling
62%
NE wind ( sea breeze )

There is some Cu on the far southern horizon, may even be a shower in it,
many hours away yet.


Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: funnel - don't think so
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:20:29 +1000
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Hello...me again

I just want to put an end to this.  You may notice at the very start of the
animation the exact same 'mirage' appears at the exact same spot - only when
the sun is out

James Chambers
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:22:12 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Good Storm Activity in NT.....
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Looking at the latest satpic, good development in the NT Top End at the
moment. Have a look...quite a few cells distributed over the place.

2. Well...........the only way we will solve the Brisbane Cam image is
to have it looked at by a video expert....and that doesnt seem
likely....so I guess its think what you like! But it was good to
generate some great discussion! Much like the seabreeze..............


Paul from Taree.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "McDonald" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne Scores!!!!!
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:24:45 +1000
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Time 5:25pm. Thunderstorm moving across melbourne. Very nice lightning but
no hail as yet. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:30:05 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: funnel - I think so.......
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-Status: 

Well its not the exact same mirage......look at the colour of it
firstly..........
I agree the first "thing" is something...I wouldnt say mirage...dont
know what.
however in 15.03 there is no sunlight.......and there is a grey
condensation funnel......so unless someone is holding a big lamp
outside.....hmm.......no good blaming it on a mirage.....need some light
for that

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: melbourne thunder
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:31:21 +1000
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After savage northwesterly winds all afternoon, there's been faint thunder
to the south & the wind has dropped - now a peal of real thunder to our
west - appears to be a small fairly high based and isolated storm - nothing
dramatic - but yes, it is a storm!!   Barometer now 998 and humidity has
dropped (?) to 60%.  Has that slightly ominous feel to it and grumbling in
the west.

Jane
Bayswater, Melb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "McDonald" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne storm
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 17:37:16 +1000
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Turns out it didn't hail just a bit of heavy rain in the north eastern
suburbs(here) but looks better to the SE.  More to come yet I think.  Our
first severe weather advice for this season was issued by the bureau just
after 3pm today until 9pm tonight.  HERE"S HOPING!!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Best source os satellite images
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 18:26:55 +1000
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What is the best source of up to dat satellite images on the web?

Nick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 18:35:49 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: Australian Weather Mailing List 
Subject: aussie-weather: Severe T'storm Advice for NSW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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X-Status: 

For anyone interested:

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1615 on Saturday the 17th of October 1998

This advice affects people in the following weather districts:

Lower Western south of Ivanhoe
Riverina southwest of Hillston to Corowa

Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area during this afternoon
and
evening.
Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing destructive winds.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 18:39:23 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Best source os satellite images
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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X-Status: 

Nick - goto
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/links/ozsatpic.htm
that has an excellent collection of satelite pictures, the JCU (James
Cook Uni) pics are often good, updated every 3hrs.

GMS is one of my favourite ones though, it has excellent graphics,
unfortunately it isn't updated as frequently.  The BoM also has pics,
but these are only updated every 6hrs.  One new site that has superb
detail (it takes a while to load up, but it's worth it!) is
http://www.marine.csiro.au/~lband/weather.html

I hope this has helped.

Anthony Cornelius

Nick Sykes wrote:
> 
> What is the best source of up to dat satellite images on the web?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 18:50:42 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Warwick Storm...
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au
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1. There is no reason why a thunderstorm cell could never develop along a
sea breeze front. All that is necessary for convection is an unstable
atmosphere with some lifting process (such as a sea breeze front - a good
example is the Tiwi Islands "Hector" storm near Darwin that develops as a 
result of sea breeze convergence) 

2.  If a storm cell that has developed in strong shear moves into an
environment of low level backing (such as a sea breeze front), it may aid
the development of a mesocyclone.  

-Paul G.

On Sat, 17 Oct 1998, Michael Thompson wrote:

> No doubt about what you say, sea breeze alone is not enough, but it is often
> the final straw that pushes the storm to severe from being just another
> storm.
> 
> As the sea breeze moves westwards it tends to push up the hot air in front
> of it, but not only that the warming of the sea breeze air will rise too and
> this will contain more moisture.
> 
> Michael
> 
> 
> 
> 
> >I tend to disagree again. In my experience with observations here in
> >Schofields, I have not observed too many situations where the sea breeze
> and
> >only the sea breeze has SIGNIFICANTLY caused explosive development of a
> >storm. In fact sea breezes and/or changes can reduce some potential storms
> >by destroying convection as you have said. The only way I believe that sea
> >breezes can increase the severity of the storm flow is the enhancement of a
> >N-NE geostrophic air flow.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "McDonald" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne clearing
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 18:59:50 +1000
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Well it turned out to be a bit of a flop.  Only a few more heavy showers
(no thunder) after the last mesage.  A few Cu around and i guess we can
remain hopeful for later tonight (I'm going out though).  Spoke to an uncle
in Corowa (NSW) and he said he could see storms brewing up there. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 19:07:45 +1000 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Storm Development...
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1. There is no reason why a thunderstorm cell could never develop along a
sea breeze front. All that is necessary for convection is an unstable
atmosphere with some lifting process (such as a sea breeze front - a good
example is the Tiwi Islands "Hector" storm near Darwin that develops as a
result of sea breeze convergence)

2.  If a storm cell that has developed in strong shear moves into an
environment of low level backing (such as a sea breeze front), it may aid
the development of a mesocyclone.

-Paul G.                                                                      

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "McDonald" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: More storms
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 19:30:50 +1000
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In NE suburbs of melbourne, we actually did get another storm, not above us
but we got a great lightning display. There were also some big anvils
around too. 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: victorian warnings
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 19:33:04 +1000
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Hi all

A few days back I asked the list why the Melbourne weather bureau warn for
non severe storms.  Today, while a severe t'storm advice was issued, just a
"t'storm warning" was issued for the Metro area.  So it seemed like that was
yet another non-severe warning - especially with the very low cloudtops with
the storms.

I guess if they really mean it they'll call it a TOP PRIORITY SEVERE T'STORM
WARNING instead.  I hope you all know what I mean.  It seems like a waste of
time to issue these non severe warnings.

James Chambers
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

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From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: More instability in Melbourne
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 20:32:02 +1000
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Lightning to the NE & the SW of Bayswater, barometer 997, 27 degrees,
there's still something coming - just don't know when - aviation forecasts
are saying 50% chance of storms between now and 2am - could be a bit of a
rough night guys - put your cars under cover 

Jane
Melbourne

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From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Thunderstorm heading for Melbourne
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 20:57:54 +1000
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Jane is right there is defiantly something coming, there is now frequent
lightning to the south west and west, very warm northerly, temp at 25, dew
point at 12.

Nick

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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:07:23 +1000
From: Brett Delaney 
Organization: Bureau of Meteorology
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: YMML Wx
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Latest radar pic for Melbourne (1050z) show large cells (rain rates
100mm/hr+) to the W , SW , SE

Wilsons Pr reporting hail at 0800z

-- 
Brett Delaney                           ,-_|\    Williamtown Met Office
Ph:  (02) 49646501                     /     \   Bureau of Meteorology
Fax: (02) 49651690                     \_,-._*   RAAF Base, 
                                             v   Williamtown NSW

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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:09:07 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Thunderstorm heading for Melbourne
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>From the satpic, it is hard to really tell what is coming your way, but
the Yahoo colour satpic indicates that it most probably is the squall
line of the approaching front. Could be some TS embeded in that.

Paul from Taree

Ps - Lucky You.

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From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: melb storms
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:09:42 +1000
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Hey people
I just noticed that the warning for the storms was actually on the Victorian
Severe T'storm Advice - issued at 8.46pm EST

It seems more serious this time.  Its strange how it says 'advice' when it
should say warning.  Well anyway to those in Melbourne and neighbouring
areas, unplug all your computer stuff inc modems.  Let's see if you can beat
what us Brisbanites got last Tuesday!

James Chambers
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

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From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne storms
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:10:12 +1000
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You're right Nick - just saw good cc lightning to the south of us - also
very active to the SW & E - 'scuse - I'm off outside with the video 

Jane

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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:22:38 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Melbourne storms
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Check the BOM warnings.......you are dead right....your in for a great
night!! Hang on tight!

Paul........

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From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne storms
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:23:01 +1000
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Well, that one was certainly hiking!! - took 5 minutes to move 45 degrees
(ie: S -> SE).  3 drops of rain, almost inaudible thunder, but a couple of
bits of spectacular cc lightning - pleased to hear that there's still
something to the W - there were Cb to the SE of Laverton a while ago.

Seem to be 2 tracks for storms through Melbourne - 1 is more northerly of us
through the Eltham - Doncaster area and the other is more southerly through
the Oakleigh - Dandenong area.  Should have checked on the annual
thunderdays for Bayswater before I bought the house, shouldn't I??  Anyone
have any observations on my last thought about the Melbourne storm tracks?

Jane

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From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Current Melbourne conditions
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:30:03 +1000
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For you out-of-towners, if you are interested in what's going on, check out
the CSIRO Weather Wall in Aspendale (on the eastern side of the bay) - gives
you a pretty good idea as to what's going on right this minutes - uploads
every 30 seconds (be patient - takes a while to load initially).

http://www.dar.csiro.au/dar/services/it/Java/wwall/wwall.html

Jane
Melbourne

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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:34:00 +1000
From: Richard Bath 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Melbourne storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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I'm new to this game but:

Here in Forest Hill, only a few drops, but swirling and gusty wind (NE -
NW).
Some activity just NW of here towards Doncaster.

Cloud base seems a bit high.
Regards,
Richard


Jane ONeill wrote:
> 
> Well, that one was certainly hiking!! - took 5 minutes to move 45 degrees
> (ie: S -> SE).  3 drops of rain, almost inaudible thunder, but a couple of
> bits of spectacular cc lightning - pleased to hear that there's still
> something to the W - there were Cb to the SE of Laverton a while ago.
> 
> Seem to be 2 tracks for storms through Melbourne - 1 is more northerly of us
> through the Eltham - Doncaster area and the other is more southerly through
> the Oakleigh - Dandenong area.  Should have checked on the annual
> thunderdays for Bayswater before I bought the house, shouldn't I??  Anyone
> have any observations on my last thought about the Melbourne storm tracks?
> 
> Jane

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Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 21:46:51 +1000
From: Paul Mossman 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Melbourne storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Sounds like it may be a squall line with embeded Thunderstorms......

That CSIRO weatherwall is great! Should set one up in Sydney......hey
one day the BOM may have one set up with every station they have!
Wouldnt that be great!

Paul from Taree.

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From: "Nick Sykes" 
To: "aussie-weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Hell yeah, go storm in Melbourne
Date: Sat, 17 Oct 1998 22:01:30 +1000
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The lightning is going off in Clayton, south east suburb of Melbourne, there
are cells all around, lightning is almost continuous, check out latest
foxtel image it shows the thunderstorm line forming.

Nick