Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 07:29:34 +1100 (EST)
X-Sender: donwhite at ozemail.com.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Don White 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At 02:36 PM 2/11/98 +1000, you wrote:
>My opinion of increased severe weather is based more on a world wide trend
rather than anythings specifically linked to the SOI. However, the frequency
of severe storms does show a slight increase in "drought" years in Australia
and the frequency of hail may be greater this year because the average
freezing level across eastern Australia is lower at the moment (over the
last few weeks on average) than at the same time last year.
Don White
>
>Great, thanx Blair (i spelt it properly this time!! heheheh).
>
>I was wondering what the Bureaus opinion on this was. Are they of the
>opinion like Don White, of increased severe weather ( either by way of TC's
>or Tstorms.)
>
>Paul.

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Date: Tue, 03 Nov 1998 12:13:10 +1000
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb" 
To: Aussie Weather Net 
Subject: aussie-weather: La Nina etc
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>From Bill in Proserpine NQ

Note with interest the comments related to El Nino/La Nina, SOI, and
SST.

I've been following these indices for many years, and note some
anomalies - but then we are talking probabilities here.

Of course high, or rising SOI does not mean high rainfall for ALL - in
some areas the opposite is the case - check the Qld DPI produced
Australian Rainman package (soon to be updated)

Some recent stats for Proserpine, where we are expecting a 80 to 90
percent chance of exceeding median rainfall this spring/summer :-

In 113 years of records

October rainfall of 192 mm at Proserpine airport exceeded the previous
highest of 171 mm recorded in 1985 (Mean 41mm Median 31mm) 

At Proserpine Airport, wettest Aug/Sept/Oct on record with 441mm.
Previous highest 427mm in 1921 (Mean 113 Med 83)

August highest ever with 183mm. Previous 173mm in 1901 (Mean 35, Med 22)

92 days 01/08 to 31/10 produced 43 rain days.

Not a scenario suited to sugar cane harvesting.

A summary of the year for P'pine

        Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
Min	15	30	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	699
Max	1496	1117	1123	584	613	415	356	183	348	192	330	1077	3502
Mean	370	378	311	152	95	64	38	35	37	41	71	180	1768
Median	299	339	267	125	72	43	23	22	20	31	54	139	1728
Range	1481	1087	1119	584	613	415	356	183	348	192	330	1077	2803
Std.Dev 292	246	220	114	89	66	52	40	55	40	71	188	595


Nor is it a scenario isolated to Proserpine - much of Australia has
recieved pretty good rain this year.

I'd be interested to hear further comments.

Bill

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X-Originating-Ip: [203.37.41.20]
From: "Patrick Tobin" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Weekend prospects
Date: Mon, 02 Nov 1998 22:31:55 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Thanks Blair, Michael for yesterdays comments.

The models offer a better outlook for the end of the week - possibly 
giving  us some prospects for as early as late Thursday - although the 
models looked reasonable for the following weekend early last week as 
well...... and we know what happened (NOT).

After the frosts of this week, it is nice to see the following outlook 
for Canberra from the BOM:

OUTLOOKS:
Thursday   Fine, increasing cloud 
Max about:  27 
Friday     Possible showers 
Max about:  24 
Saturday   Late showers/thunderstorms 
Max about:  25 

Hopefully that means more in the way of storms than I managed to pick in 
the way of winners this afternoon!! I hope others had greater luck.


Patrick from Canberra

______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: tornado anniversary
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 16:57:20 +1000
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Hi all

As Anthony pointed out a week back, tomorrow is the 25th Anniversary of what
was probably Australia's most destructive tornado.  It was an F2 that lasted
51km and damaged/destroyed many houses.  My report is here:
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/nov4_73.html .  (I'm
not celebrating, just telling everyone about it)

It will also (Nov 4) be the 4th anniversary of the "Movie World Supercell" -
when 6cm hail from a classic supercell dented most cars in the Movie World
carpark at Coomera, near the Gold Coast.

On Friday, Nov 6 it'll be the 3rd anniversary of the Bellbowrie Supercell
when 8cm+ hail and strong winds smashed roof tiles and 'wrote off' cars.  I
have a report here of that week of severe t'storm activity:
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/nov3_95.html ; but I
should probably write more particularly on the Bellbowrie event.

I told some people in IRC that last Saturday was the 3 year anniversary of
the Bauple Supercell - when 12cm + hail pummeled the small town near Tin Can
Bay, NE of Gympie.  Cloudtops were 20km.

Well, this is all to keep everyone interested because historically it is
around the peak of severe t'storm season.  It would be nice to get more than
one!  Early next week is probably the next chance of anything around here.

See ya
James
-----------------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
jamestorm at ozemail.com.au
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

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X-Originating-Ip: [203.13.168.7]
From: "Kevin Phyland" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: tornado anniversary
Date: Tue, 03 Nov 1998 00:05:27 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

James etc.

I'm not sure how good my memory is... but I think it's getting close to 
the 22nd anniversary of the killer Sandon tornado (near Castlemaine in 
Victoria)! It tore two elderly people out of their car and bowled it 
down the road for a hundred metres. I've only seen one reasonable photo 
of this storm (in a Bureau document if memory serves). Does anyone have 
any info on that particular storm. I was living in Bendigo at the time 
where it was only thundery.

Kevin Phyland.

>From: "James Chambers" 
>To: "Aussie Weather" 
>Subject: aussie-weather: tornado anniversary
>Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 16:57:20 +1000
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>
>Hi all
>
>As Anthony pointed out a week back, tomorrow is the 25th Anniversary of 
what
>was probably Australia's most destructive tornado.  It was an F2 that 
lasted
>51km and damaged/destroyed many houses.  My report is here:
>http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/nov4_73.html .  
(I'm
>not celebrating, just telling everyone about it)
>
>It will also (Nov 4) be the 4th anniversary of the "Movie World 
Supercell" -
>when 6cm hail from a classic supercell dented most cars in the Movie 
World
>carpark at Coomera, near the Gold Coast.
>
>On Friday, Nov 6 it'll be the 3rd anniversary of the Bellbowrie 
Supercell
>when 8cm+ hail and strong winds smashed roof tiles and 'wrote off' 
cars.  I
>have a report here of that week of severe t'storm activity:
>http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm/reports/nov3_95.html ; 
but I
>should probably write more particularly on the Bellbowrie event.
>
>I told some people in IRC that last Saturday was the 3 year anniversary 
of
>the Bauple Supercell - when 12cm + hail pummeled the small town near 
Tin Can
>Bay, NE of Gympie.  Cloudtops were 20km.
>
>Well, this is all to keep everyone interested because historically it 
is
>around the peak of severe t'storm season.  It would be nice to get more 
than
>one!  Early next week is probably the next chance of anything around 
here.
>
>See ya
>James

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subject: Re: aussie-weather: tornado anniversary
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 98 19:59:19 +1000
X-Sender: mildad at mail.one.net.au
From: mildad 
To: 
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

>I'm not sure how good my memory is... but I think it's getting close to 
>the 22nd anniversary of the killer Sandon tornado (near Castlemaine in 
>Victoria)! It tore two elderly people out of their car and bowled it 
>down the road for a hundred metres. I've only seen one reasonable photo 
>of this storm (in a Bureau document if memory serves). Does anyone have 
>any info on that particular storm. I was living in Bendigo at the time 
>where it was only thundery.
>
>Kevin Phyland.

Hi Kevin and all,

If you haven't already seen it, there is a summary of the severe tornadic 
storms in the Sandon area on that (Boxing?) day (and many others in 
Australia) in the book by David Seargent "Willy Willies and Cockeyed Bobs 
- Tornadoes in Australia". It's an excellent book -  the link from 
Australian Severe Weather (to Ira's Fehlbergs Wa severe storm page I 
think) doesn't seem to work - the photo of the Sandon wall cloud/tornado 
which appears on the cover of the book was also in Ira's page but it does 
not load now. 

Speaking of Ira, does anyone know why he is not on the list as I'm sure 
he would provide valuable input.

Cheers

David (Croan).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 03 Nov 1998 17:03:34 +0800
From: Michael Fewings 
Organization: Edith Cowan Uni
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: tornado anniversary
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Mike from perth here,

Re Ira.
No one has heard from him of late. He was going to join this list but he
hasn't been replying to emails or any of the sort. Jacob was the last to hear
from him and that would have been 2 months ago I think. I have no idea other
than that. I am sure it is nothing personal on our behalf and he will get
into it again when he is ready.

> (to Ira's Fehlbergs Wa severe storm page I
> think) doesn't seem to work - the photo of the Sandon wall cloud/tornado
> which appears on the cover of the book was also in Ira's page but it does
> not load now.
>
> Speaking of Ira, does anyone know why he is not on the list as I'm sure
> he would provide valuable input.
>
> Cheers
>
> David (Croan).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

X-Originating-Ip: [203.13.168.7]
From: "Kevin Phyland" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: tornado anniversary
Date: Tue, 03 Nov 1998 01:31:07 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

David,
I'm sure it was in November 1976, I think it was about a week after the 
Melbourne Cup! Thanx for the info.
Kevin.

>From: mildad 
>To: 
>Mime-Version: 1.0
>Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
>Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
>>I'm not sure how good my memory is... but I think it's getting close 
to 
>>the 22nd anniversary of the killer Sandon tornado (near Castlemaine in 
>>Victoria)! It tore two elderly people out of their car and bowled it 
>>down the road for a hundred metres. I've only seen one reasonable 
photo 
>>of this storm (in a Bureau document if memory serves). Does anyone 
have 
>>any info on that particular storm. I was living in Bendigo at the time 
>>where it was only thundery.
>>
>>Kevin Phyland.
>
>Hi Kevin and all,
>
>If you haven't already seen it, there is a summary of the severe 
tornadic 
>storms in the Sandon area on that (Boxing?) day (and many others in 
>Australia) in the book by David Seargent "Willy Willies and Cockeyed 
Bobs 
>- Tornadoes in Australia". It's an excellent book -  the link from 
>Australian Severe Weather (to Ira's Fehlbergs Wa severe storm page I 
>think) doesn't seem to work - the photo of the Sandon wall 
cloud/tornado 
>which appears on the cover of the book was also in Ira's page but it 
does 
>not load now. 
>
>Speaking of Ira, does anyone know why he is not on the list as I'm sure 
>he would provide valuable input.
>
>Cheers
>
>David (Croan).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "paulmoss" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Chase!
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 20:22:47 +1100
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Howdy all........

Well, im still looking for people who want to chase. The chase would leave
on the 4.12.98 and finish on the Monday, a week later (the 13.12.1998). We
would chase Northern Territory, and stay in shared accommodation.We will use
the same car ( if more than 4 -5) 2 cars. So think about it........will try
and make the costs around $300 or so....but thats negotiable depending on
petrol & food.

So how about it!! This weather here has been boring...so lets look for some
interesting stuff!

Paul

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: October SOI
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 22:40:59 +1100
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You are definately right in regard to the freezing level, again early this
week snow virga was seen in clouds over Wollongong. Not to the extent of
last week but definately there. If there are some storms in the next few
weeks, hail will be a good bet.

On the snow virga note, I got some photos back of the clouds that day, I
will scan them and place them on a temp web page for everyone to look at,
will let you know when.

Michael

>>My opinion of increased severe weather is based more on a world wide trend
>rather than anythings specifically linked to the SOI. However, the
frequency
>of severe storms does show a slight increase in "drought" years in
Australia
>and the frequency of hail may be greater this year because the average
>freezing level across eastern Australia is lower at the moment (over the
>last few weeks on average) than at the same time last year.
>Don White

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cold night in Canberra
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 22:36:57 +1100
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I wish, but all has been quiet.

Michael

-----Original Message-----
From: paulmoss 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Monday, 2 November 1998 21:21
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Cold night in Canberra


>Howdy all......howdy Michael...(I believe you may be getting some thundery
>rain there at the moment)......current Taree obs are 14.1c (cold!), 1.5mm
>rain, wind from the South at 5 - 10km/h, bar is 1027hpa

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Date: Tue, 03 Nov 1998 22:52:17 +1100
From: Greg Browning 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Sandon Tornado
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,
Just perusing the BoM publication "What's the weather...", a month by
month guide to state climates and noticed Nov. has been a good month,
historically, for at least some weather-watchers in Victoria.  The
Sandon event, 13/11/76, with  tornadic winds conservatively est. at
165km/h; severe storms in N & NE suburbs of Melb.(15/11/82) causing
flooding and a total damage bill of $10+ mill., with a gust at Melb.
airport of 139km/h; and severe hailstorm (5cm diameter) in the Mallee
region (ie. far NW of Vic.) on 25/11/91.
So to the other Melburnians, keep that camera ready and the petrol tank
full- you just never know...

Bye now,
Greg Browning

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From: disarm at braenet.com.au
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
Date: Tue, 03 Nov 1998 23:18:03 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: NT STORM CHASE
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

this is to almost confirm that i am going to go with paul on this one,, as
long as 2 others come as well.otherwise petrol costs etc will be alot for 2
people, and it will be cheaper for everyone if we get a car load up there!! :)
Matt from syd

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: sandon tornado
Date: Tue, 3 Nov 1998 22:40:34 +1000
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Hi all

I do not have a copy of the "Willy Willies and Cockeyed Bobs..." book but I
do have the Bureau's technical report if anyone's interested.  Email me if
you want more info.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
jamestorm at ozemail.com.au
The Brisbane and SE Qld Storm Site
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html