From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: new storm to the WNW
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 13:13:50 GMT
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On Mon, 23 Nov 1998 22:42:28 +1000, "James Chambers"
 wrote:

>I'm happier all of a sudden.  A couple of storms have developed to the WNW
>but aren't strong enough to show up on the lightning detection.  Hopefully
>it'll intensify from nothing to huge like the others have.

Don't get your hopes too high, James. An unusual situation though.
Have a look at http://www.lisp.com.au/~laurier/aussie-weather/


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: US models had it right
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 00:28:39 +1100
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The NGP and AVN on Saturday were predicting heavy rain for the NE of NSW for
Tuesday - Wednesday. The models tend to be wayward anything more than 72
hours ahead, but are surprising accurate for 24-48 hours.

Over the weekend for example NGP had a small area of light rainfall plotted
for the Snowy Mountains area, extending to the far south coast, that is
pretty much what happened. Sunday was looking optimistic in the eyes of
chasers, but NGP had only light falls plotted from north of Newcastle, again
this pretty much what happened.

At present I am in a dilemma, I am on 3 weeks holidays and I am itching to
chase, but only have 1 car which my wife needs for work, I can borrow a
spare for for 3-4 days, but don't want to overstay the welcome on that by
repeat borrows. Therefore I have to carefully choose what 3 days to chase
over the next 3 weeks. The next 2-3 days look OK on the surface, but I think
it will be embedded TS events, therefore offering little in the way of cloud
photo opportunities, or severe weather ( other than rainfall ). On the other
hand get to the north of this cloud mass, into central QLD and  things could
fire. I think I will gamble and stay put here in Wollongong and wait to see
what the next system delivers. Unfortunately for Wollongong the US models
are saying very little if any rainfall over the next 2-3 days.



Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: big ones tomorrow in bris?
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 01:59:21 +1000
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Hi all...just some details of the 00z soundings:

Cap Strength:              4.45 C
Lifted Index:             -2.69 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Lifted Index  at 300 mb:     -0.87 C lifton Index  at 700 mb:     -0.90 C
Showalter Index:           0.18 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
Total Totals Index:       49.40 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
  Vertical Totals Index:  29.70 C  Cross Totals Index:     19.70 C
K Index:                  28.30   Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index:             169.58   Risk: None
Energy Index:             -0.77   Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms
CAPE (B+):               757.90 J/kg

Some very good stats there, and remember that they should improve for the
12z soundings.
By the way, we had a thundery shower earlier but nothing like what was on
the Border Ranges.

PS: email me personally if you think I email this list to much please
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
jamestorm at ozemail.com.au
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: big ones tomorrow in bris?
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 16:33:12 GMT
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On Tue, 24 Nov 1998 01:59:21 +1000, "James Chambers"
 wrote:

>Hi all...just some details of the 00z soundings:
>
>Cap Strength:              4.45 C
>Lifted Index:             -2.69 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
>Lifted Index  at 300 mb:     -0.87 C lifton Index  at 700 mb:     -0.90 C
>Showalter Index:           0.18 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
>Total Totals Index:       49.40 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
>  Vertical Totals Index:  29.70 C  Cross Totals Index:     19.70 C
>K Index:                  28.30   Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms
>Sweat Index:             169.58   Risk: None
>Energy Index:             -0.77   Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms
>CAPE (B+):               757.90 J/kg
>
>Some very good stats there, and remember that they should improve for the
>12z soundings.

James, I think those figures are the 12z 23/11 sounding -- the 00z
23/11 figures were LI -1.8, CAPE 161, etc. 


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 07:32:22 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Waterspouts off Sydney...
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
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Hi everyone,
	Just heard on the radio that there have been some reports of
waterspouts off Sydney's beaches this morning.  I went outside and noticed
some tall cumulus cells towards the coast.
	- Paul G.

----------------------------
Paul Graham
m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
----------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: big ones tomorrow in bris?
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 07:15:19 -0800
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>Cap Strength:              4.45 C
>Lifted Index:             -2.69 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
>Lifted Index  at 300 mb:     -0.87 C lifton Index  at 700 mb:     -0.90 C
>Showalter Index:           0.18 C Risk: Thunderstorms probable
>Total Totals Index:       49.40 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
>  Vertical Totals Index:  29.70 C  Cross Totals Index:     19.70 C
>K Index:                  28.30   Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms
>Sweat Index:             169.58   Risk: None
>Energy Index:             -0.77   Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms
>CAPE (B+):               757.90 J/kg
>
>Some very good stats there, and remember that they should improve for the
>12z soundings.
>By the way, we had a thundery shower earlier but nothing like what was on
>the Border Ranges.
>
Well it's 7:10 am here and there is already 54 strikes every 5 mins on the
ligtning tracker(http://bastion.energex.com.au/strike/), could be some
monsters around thisafternoon i hope.
BTW i recieved this reply to an email i sent last night thismorning, it may
be of interest to some people.

> I was wondering why the soundings from 0z come out at 3z and the 12z =
> ones come out 3 hours late too??

The 00Z sounding is launched at about 23Z.  It takes about 2 hours for the
balloon to go up.  It takes additional time, especially for the
international
soundings,  for the data to make it throught the system.  I forgot to change
the
time when we went to standard time this year.  They should be done at about
02Z and 14Z now.

Larry Oolman
Department of Atmospheric Science
University of Wyoming
oolman at grizzly.uwyo.edu
http://www-das.uwyo.edu

l8tr
Bodie at corplink.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 08:52:00 +1000
Subject: aussie-weather: TS Aftermath in Taree & Surrounding areas
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Howdy all.

After yesterdays storm:

I received 23.4mm at home.

Taree received 25mm in 20 mins.

Alot of blown branches, and small trees littered the roads everywhere. A
fatal car accident killed 4 during the height of the storm.

Another reminder of the beauty but fatal results of Storms....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Waterspouts off Sydney...
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 09:54:43 +1100
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Driving my wife to work I noticed the Cu too ( I live right on the coast,
well 1km away ), and waterspouts were on my mind. Except down here the Cu is
just too far east today to see the cloud bases properly. The cloud is
classic waterspout Cu, extremely tall congestus, I have seen several over
the years as a surfer in my younger days and almost without exception it was
congestus. In fact I watched 4 waterspouts once from a single congestus,
only small ones though, and as soon as the congestus glaciated the
waterspouts vanished.

Coincedence ?

Michael



>Hi everyone,
> Just heard on the radio that there have been some reports of
>waterspouts off Sydney's beaches this morning.  I went outside and noticed
>some tall cumulus cells towards the coast.
> - Paul G.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Wollongong Obs 
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 11:04:04 +1100
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Interesting but not exciting....has been sunny all morning although Cu along
the escarpment and a line over the ocean that is retreating eastwards very
quickly

I like this retreat, and the fact that the escarpment Cu is being weakly
sheared only 1500 -2000m up back towards east / SE. It means that the SE
wind influence ( SE stands for S_torm E_radicator in my books ) may be
weaker than I thought, thus giving us the slightest chance of an afternoon
storm.

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 11:13:31 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Wollongong Obs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Morning All.

Obs here are Tcumulus everywhere, none developing yet. Plenty of moisture
in the low levels, dont know if there is enough instablility in the upper
atmosphere. I hopefully beleive that there will be some activity this
afternoon.

heres some more info for you:

Tarees average rainfall is 80mm for NOvember. Total so far is now 213.5 mm
.almost 3 x the average. The highest figure for November is 220 mm so we
are looking at a record in we get some more heavy falls assoc with storms
before next Tuesday!!

Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 11:37:38 +1000
Subject: aussie-weather: TS activity
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Howdy all. Good development now to the west, with banks of Cumulus
congestus & cumulus pileus forming. Howevere, I had a rare treat with the
cloud type kelvin-heinz (i think thats what they are called) where the
cloud looks like a twisted rope, indicating severe turbulence at upper
atmosphere levels, also a good pointer for severe storm activity.

I will keep you updated.

Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

X-Originating-Ip: [203.37.41.20]
From: "Patrick Tobin" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Cb to SW of Canberra
Date: Mon, 23 Nov 1998 16:51:26 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Good Morning All,

Am pleased to report that I have observed some Cb which have developed 
over the ranges to the SW and W of Canberra from about 11.00am EDST 
24/11/98.

Lots of other good congestus developing in all directions so could be an 
interesting afternoon.

Patrick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 10:53:20 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham 
Subject: aussie-weather: goldcoast storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hey guys,
gotta a nice storm late last night here. unfortunately i was at work at the
time and could only admire the sound of the thunder and the roar of the
rain. would've rathered be out taken some photos of the lightning. finished
work and only saw CC lightning, aparently thats all there was anyway
according to my girlfriend! hopefully might get another opportunity:)
a little bit overcast right now, might get a few spots of rain!
wish i could go to the meeting, that would be great!! if only i was rich, i
could fly down everytime there was a meeting!
see ya
steve

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Thunderstorm warnings
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 10:58:40 -0800
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TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCASTSEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGYNEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
Issued at 1145 on Tuesday the 24th of November 1998
This advice affects people in the following weather districts:
Northern Tablelands, north of  East/West line through WalchaNorthern Rivers
Mid-North Coast north of  East/West line through Kempsey,
North West Slopes  north of the Oxley Highway
North West Plains east of Moree and north of Narrabri
Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area from 12 noon until 6 pm.
Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing large hailstones and
destructive winds 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Servere weather warning
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 11:01:27 -0800
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As well as this warning, there is also a servere thunderstorm Advice/warning
for SE Qld wich is similar to the Northern NSW one.

TOP PRIORITYSEVERE WEATHER WARNINGIssued by the Bureau of Meteorology,
Brisbane
At 10.00am EST on Tuesday the 24th of November 1998
For the Darling Downs District.
Thunderstorms are expected throughout the district today and are likely to
produce severe wind squalls and heavy rain during the afternoon and night.
The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued at 4.00pm Tuesday.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 12:08:52 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Severe weather warning
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Has anymore severe advices been issued yet, and if so can someone post them
to the list

Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Severe weather warning
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 11:23:17 -0800
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>Has anymore severe advices been issued yet, and if so can someone post them
>to the list
>
>Paul.


Hello Paul,

We are still on an advice in SE Qld but obviously from looking at the latest
sat pics there is something building already :) I will post any further
warnings to the list as soon as they come online.

l8tr

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 12:12:29 +1100
From: Michael Scollay 
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Unusual weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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"W.A. (Bill) Webb" wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> 
> Found the following quote in a novel "Whalemen Adventurers", by W.J.
> Dakin. Hardly severe weather, but certainly interesting.
> 
> Anyone care to speculate on possible causes?? The book offers none.
> 
> >From the log of the barque "Arabian", dated January. 20, 1850.
> In waters North of Timor in Indonesia.
> 
> quote;
> 
> At midnight the fourth mate came to my cabin very much frightened and
> called me and told me the ship was sailing through a sheet of fire...

Look up "St. Elmo's fire". I might be wrong though...I've heard that
this phenomena is caused by electrostatic build-up and discharge in
particular conditions. I've actually seen the same sort of thing
trailing wingtip static discharge rods on aircraft at night. In
particular, upon landing in both Honolulu and later Bankok during
stormy days in 1984 and 1987 respectively. 

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 12:20:03 +1100
From: Michael Scollay 
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Unusual weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Paul Graham wrote:
> 
> This phenomenon is known as "St. Elmo's Fire"...

Oops! That'll teach me to "sort by subject" in future. 600 Email's
later...

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 12:33:33 +1100
From: Michael Scollay 
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: severe weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Laurier Williams wrote:
> ...
> An annual report on severe storms in NSW/ACT has just hit the web at
> http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/stsrep98/stsrep98.shtml.
> Worth reading, if only for the glowing reference to the usefulness of
> storm spotters. Did you know there are around 1350 of them in NSW now.

1351...But I think everyone will agree that a solution is needed which
enhances and optimises the timely communication of severe storm
advice. There is a need for rigour in this subject since there is a
temptation for the inexperienced observers to "cry wolf" and thus
cause unnecessary panic. Couple this with severe weather being prone
to rapid and "unpredictable" change the the need for near-real-time
weather observation services comes to the fore...

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 13:04:09 +1100
From: Michael Scollay 
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Bureau's Warning Service...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Paul Graham wrote:
> 
> Hi everyone,
>         I have been reading some of the comments about Australia's severe
> storm warning service and I have to say that I think the severe storm
> warning service, in its current form, generally provides reliable and
> timely warnings in advance of severe weather.  However, I think there
> could be some significant improvements...

Great stuff [snipped], Paul...

One of the underwritten problems with public communication about
severe storm advice is the level of understanding and communication
appropriate. It all comes down to a form of marketing "weather". Now
the yanks are great at this and even make movies about severe weather.
This sort of thing raises people's level of understanding and
awareness by using a form of "hype". A symptom of just how "unhyped"
aussie weather is (not the news group) came recently to the news group
- a new WA aussie-weather subscriber wanted to go to the USA in order
to gain experience and then was told to look in his own
backyard...It's just typical and all symtomatic of inadequate
communication. As an example, what would catch someone's attention
from the following phrases talking about the same storm severity:

1) Severe weather alert level 3
2) Tornado advice level 1
3) Thunderstorm advice level 2

Now the BoM probably uses 1), the yanks use 2) and "aussie-weather"
use all 3.

"What raises people's awareness?" I hear you ask. Without media hype,
there is no hope other than brutal experience. A good La Nina year
will deliver that for sure. Let's hope we can get the communication
formulae right in time for "The storms of the last Millenium" (what a
good title for a movie:-)

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 14:28:40 +1000
Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Have just seen the radar for SE qld. Looking very promising indeed, with a
large area of >100mm, also indicating hail.... batten down the hatches and
prepare for the battle!!

Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Thunderstorm warning
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 13:09:53 -0800
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TOP PRIORITYSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
At 1.15pm EST on Tuesday the 24th of November 1998For the Southeast Coast
A large area of thunderstorms is developing over the Darling Downs, some of
which appear to be severe with damaging winds, hail and heavy rain.  These
thunderstorms are expected to move into the Southeast Coast district during
the
afternoon.
People are advised to secure outside items, move cars under cover and seek
shelter.The next warning will be issued at 2.00pm.

I am looking at a pretty much featureless black wall aproaching me at the
moment :) quite muggy at the moment with light winds.  I have to go out for
a couple of hours , and it looks like the storm may hit in that time :( half
my luck, but hopefully it will hold off .

l8tr

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 13:56:38 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham 
Subject: aussie-weather: question?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hi,
am wondering what do the different colours on the JCUMetsat photos mean!
thanx
steve

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: disarm at braenet.com.au
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Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 15:07:46 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: lightning detection..
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

http://bastion.energex.com.au/strike/

ok well this doesnt look like the lightning detection page i know..

anyone know whats going on? (its obviously not the brisbane area..)

Matt

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 14:11:05 +1100
From: Michael Scollay 
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Thunderstorms inVic
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Russell and Robyn Roberts wrote:
> 
> The BOM has a bad habit of neglecting to tell us when the alpine regions are
> going to produce storms, all the forecasts missed the one that wet all our
> hay this afternoon.....

As I was up in the region this last weekend and on the Monday you
mention, I can imagine why this is so;

1) There is a severe lack of observers and/or observation posts.
2) AWS's are few and far between while lacking "eyes".
3) You sometimes can't see much when perched high up looking for a
distant view while in the midst of a severe storm.

On 3, I have personal experience that drove me to find immediate
shelter behind some large granite outcrops one summer up on Back
Perisher (2041m). Winds went from about 20kph to over 80kph in just 5
minutes. Visability went from scores of km to 5m in 5 minutes.
Temperature went from +13 to +4 in 10 minutes. Wind chill went from
about +5 to -11 in 10 minutes. It was not a safe place to be at all.
It resulted in teaching me a great respect of severe weather, high
alpine places and a love for retaining one's life intact.

There's a little private AWS up on Back Perisher with it's wind vane
blown off, one of it's 3 wind cups eroded till nothing remains,
evidence of lightening damage destroying the electronics and rats
eating through the conduit/cables.

That's why we need access to real-time radar and other remote
observation facilities. These cover such remote and sometimes
extremely dangerous areas.

Michael Scollay       mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 15:11:06 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: question?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Howdy Steve:

The colours represent temperatures:

White is the coldest, then orange red & so on. Obv. the white means the
cloud is very high, and infers assoc weather such as rain / hail etc.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 15:42:27 +1100
From: david.croan at agal.gov.au (David Croan)
Subject: aussie-weather: NSW/QLD storms
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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     Obviously very unstable conditions in NE NSW / SE QLD. I haven't had a 
     chance to look at the soundings for that area (perhaps the Moree one 
     might be interesting particularly for getting an idea of helicity/BRN 
     values), but I wonder if things look conducive to the development of 
     supercells. The QLD one the BoM had a severe weather warning out for 
     at Noon ( around Stanthorpe ) 'seemed' isolated at that stage (based 
     on their wording that is). If your online Laurier have you observed 
     anything interesting on radar??
     
     
     
     David

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 16:22:13 +1000
Subject: aussie-weather: SE QLD STORM
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Just saw the Channel 9 pics of the radar and rain .....man thats a good
storm. Any hail?? It looks like a beauty............good radar pic
too.........wonder if they will put it on the web?? Maybe an idea..........

Paul

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Radar report: 1998-11-24 15.00 EST
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 05:24:35 GMT
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It's all happening in Qld, mostly the southeast.

1. Band of storms in an arc from about Kempsey to Brisbane to 100km
north of Roma, moving pretty swiftly -- east around Kempsey, ENE
around Brisbane, NE to the north of Roma. Spectacular echoes which
must be pretty much on central Brisbane right now -- see
http://www.lisp.com.au/~laurier/aussie-weather/  -- I'll pick and post
a few goodies. There are also some respectable centres around and
south of Coffs Hbr.

2. Lot of small clusters of TS in two broad lines in Qld -- one about
50/100km inland from the coast, and a second about 500km inland from
and parallel to the coast.  

3. More Top End activity today -- good storm east of Broome, and a few
popping up east/west through about Katherine. Nothing much towards the
coasts.

4. Something strange about 10 to 30km northwest of Warburton,
Victoria. Fairly circular, with several centres to 20>40mm/hr, and
occasional flashes of 40>100, the whole moving *very* slowly SW. Any
locals tell us what's happening???

Big report expected from you guys in Brisbane!


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jane ONeill" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: Weather in Melbourne region
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 16:36:37 +1100
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Huge area of TCu, congestus and a Cb or two in amongst the activity Laurier
has just spotted.  Moving SW is a bit of an indication of possibly
interesting weather (it doesn't move that way down here!!!)

Aviation forecasts only suggest isolated tops to 14000, but what I can see
from near the centre of Melbourne looks rather more threatening!!

Jane
Toner Express (A'Asia) Pty Ltd
Phone: 1800 061 334

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: question?
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 05:46:40 GMT
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On Tue, 24 Nov 1998 13:56:38 +1000, steve baynham 
wrote:

>hi,
>am wondering what do the different colours on the JCUMetsat photos mean!
>thanx
>steve
>
Hi Steve

As Paul replied, the colours represent temperature. Go to
ftp://ftp.ece.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/CalChart.gif for a chart that
relates the colour to temperature. The infrared satpics are showing
the temperature of whatever they see (accurate to within a degree or
two), so if your looking at land or water, the colour tends to be in
the black/dark blue range, though on clear frosty mornings, you can
see by the area of middle blue colour where it's really cold. If
you're looking at the tops of low cloud, the colour will typically be
in the mid to light blues. Middle level cloud from light blue through
to mid green, and cirrus level cloud light green through to yellow.
The oranges and reds are pretty much reserved for cumulonimbus storm
areas pushing well up into the troposphere, and when you see white
(minus 72C) you have a bumper storm on your hands, and it's probably
in the tropics!  

As temperatures at different heights vary seasonally and from day to
day, the above is only a rough guide. To find out what temperature is
occurring at which height, go to the Wyoming Uni site at
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/upperair/au.html, select  and ,
then a location near where you want. The height in metres (actually
geopotential metres) and the temperature are in the 3rd and 4th
columns.

Hope this helps.


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:07:25 +1100
From: david.croan at agal.gov.au (David Croan)
Subject: aussie-weather: 15:48 NSW severe ts advice
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

     TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
     
     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
     BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
     NEW SOUTH WALES REGIONAL OFFICE
     Issued at 1548 on Tuesday the 24th of November 1998
     
     This advice cancels and replaces the advice issued at 11:45am and 
     affects
     people in the following weather districts:
     
     Northern Tablelands, north of Walcha
     Northern Rivers
     Mid-North Coast north of Kempsey,
     Northwest Plains east of Moree
     Northwest Slopes north of the Oxley Highway
     
     Thunderstorms are forecast within the advice area during this 
     afternoon and
     into the evening.
     Some of these are expected to be severe, bringing large hailstones,
     destructive winds and very heavy rainfall.
     
     Hail large enough to damage cars and roofing has already been reported 
     from
     the Kempsey area.
     
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storms
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 16:29:50 -0800
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I have just got home from a half chase/ half return trip from where i was :)
It poured down!! heaps of cg's .. what a great storm, i have only just
looked out the window to see a lowered shelf cloud coming towards me again,
and thunder starting to increase again so i have to go! ;) more later

great storm

l8tr

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "dpn" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Melbourne Obs
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:26:46 +1100
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Large Cu and congestus were almost stationary to The NE of here probably
40-50km away from about 3pm onwards could observe heavy showers falling
from them, appeared to be very slow moving, now glaciating and weakening,
dont think ther was any thunder with them just heavy showers. Isolated
showers and storms developed over the eastern ranges of Victoria yesterday
afternoon as well. Dane 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: gladstonessss
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:25:31 +1000
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Hey...I just looked at the local Gladstone loop and they have to be
supercells.  They are moving NW-SE while a squall line is coming up from the
SSW or SW.  I have the radar images of these in case you're looking at this
email a few hours later.

James
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: radar
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:29:43 +1000
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I might just say that a friend sent me some images of Gladstone.  He won't
give me passwords !

------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Brisbane Storms
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:29:41 -0800
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Well a nice storm in brisbane thisafternoon , it looked allot worse than it
realy was.  At redcliffe (NE brisbane) we recieved 40mm from the first storm
and 5mm from a second storm close behind the first.  I was stuck inside for
the first part of the first storm so i couldn't see much but there was allot
of loud thunder.  On my way home i was treated to countless cg's and heavy
rain, along with some strong squals, but nothing servere wind wise.  The
second storm was quite interesting, it had a very very low base on it, and
it looked realy bad, but when it came over it was just rain with the odd
crack of thunder. The updated forecast for brisbane is for rain and
thunderstorms clearing north tomorrow morning, so hopefully we may see some
more action tonight, but i dont like my chances .. it has become quite cool
here in the last half hour :(

l8tr

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Severe Storm Warning
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:31:53 -0800
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TOP PRIORITYSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
At 5.00pm EST on Tuesday the 24th of November 1998
For the northern parts of the Southeast Coast  and the Wide Bay & Burnett
Districts
At 4.30pm a line of severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds, hail and
heavy
rain causing flash flooding, extended from the Sunshine Coast to the Monto
area.
 These thunderstorms were moving northeast at 60 km/h, expected to clear
from
the Southeast Coast by 5.30pm and extend to the Wide Bay Coast by 6.30pm.
People are advised to secure outside items, move cars under cover and seek
shelter and not to cross flooded roads.
The next warning will be issued at 6.00pm.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: new warnings: capricorn district
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:34:39 +1000
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TOP PRIORITY SEVERE  THUNDERSTORM WARNING
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
At 5:15 pm on Tuesday the 24th of November 1998
For the Capricornia District

Thunderstorms with damaging hail and severe wind squalls were observed
moving
northeast at 60km/hr.
The storms are expected near the coast within the next 1 to 2 hours.
People are advised to secure outside items, move cars under cover and seek
shelter.The next warning will be issued at 6:15 pm.
**** NOT FOR BROADCAST AFTER 6:15 pm ****
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: lightning detection..
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:37:31 -0800
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>http://bastion.energex.com.au/strike/
>
>ok well this doesnt look like the lightning detection page i know..
>
>anyone know whats going on? (its obviously not the brisbane area..)
>
>Matt
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>
Actually that was the brisbane area matt - i saw it around 1:30pm.  It was
just a broad scale look at the South Qld coast, although the lightning it
was detecting didn't seem to be right comparing it to the sat pics.  I am
pretty sure that was what you see on TELETEXT, a service we get in SE QLD
through your tv (it's a lightning detector).. but i'm not certain ... it
certainly was strange ;)

l8tr

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: my obs of the storms
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 17:41:45 +1000
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Hi all

Not a bad day at all.  When I woke this morning and noticed that very active
storms to the south on the Border Ranges, I immediately thought October 13
all over again.  Although the soundings of the night before were good, a
vast improvement was needed to match something like that storm.

When I got out of work after 2.30 I looked towards the west and I saw GREEN.
>From 3pm I started videoing the scene to the west - the best CC and CG
lightning I had seen for a couple of years.  (Last night's Boonah storm
didn't compare)  Soon anvil rain started falling and a very nice green
guster swiftly moved over with 60-70km/h winds in gusts for about 10mins.
Heavy rain of course also - over 30mm in total.  Ipswich got 44.8mm. Flash
flooding occurred all over the area, especially western suburbs and more
than 50 000 have been blacked out.  Hopefully some more official figures
later on.

Here are the soundings at 00z (I think) that came out around 1pm I believe:

Lifted Index:             -4.27 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index  at 300 mb:     -1.60 CLifted Index  at 700 mb:     -1.20 C
Showalter Index:           1.15 C Risk: Showers probable
Total Totals Index:       48.80 C Risk: Scattered moderate thunderstorms
  Vertical Totals Index:  30.90 C  Cross Totals Index:     17.90 C
K Index:                  28.50   Risk: 40-60 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index:             113.57   Risk: None
Energy Index:             -0.30   Risk: Scattered severe thunderstorms
Parcel IndicesParcel: using 100 mb layerCAPE (B+):               942.32 J/kg
------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 18:57:44 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Charleville Sounding Data...
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au
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Hi everyone,
	I thought these statistics for the morning Charleville sounding
looked interesting and worth posting:
Lifted Index:             -6.59 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index  at 300 mb:     -5.03 C
Lifted Index  at 700 mb:      0.93 C
Showalter Index:          -4.51 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Total Totals Index:       57.80 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
  Vertical Totals Index:  35.90 C
  Cross Totals Index:     21.90 C
K Index:                  34.70   Risk: 60-80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index:             402.81   Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
Energy Index:             -2.33   Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using 100 mb layer
CAPE (B+):              1286.57 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel:          50.73 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-):    177.20 J/kg
Cap Strength:              3.63 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL):     760.12 mb =  2393.21 m =  7851.64 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC):     675.12 mb =  3383.98 m = 11102.16 ft
Equ Level (EL):          225.12 mb = 11401.20 m = 37405.06 ft
B at Equ Level:         1279.61 J/kg
Max Parcel Lev (MPL):    135.12 mb = 14645.15 m = 48047.80 ft

Wind Parameters
Mean winds (0-6000m):            290.3 at   34.0 knts
Storm direction:                 320.3 at   25.5 knts
Shear (0-3000m)              pos:    0.7 neg:    5.5 tot:    6.2 10-3/s
Storm rel Dir Shear (0-3000m):     135.6 deg
Storm rel helicity (0-3000m) pos:    7.7 neg:  -84.6 tot:  -76.9 m^2/s^2
                             ave:  -25.6 10^-3 m/s^2 rel:  -0.49
Storm rel vorticity (0-3000m) horiz:   10.0 stream:   -4.9 10^-3/s
Energy-Hel index:          0.06
Bulk Rich Number:         18.77
Bulk Shear:               68.54 m/s

----------------------------
Paul Graham
m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
----------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "James Chambers" 
To: "Aussie Weather" 
Subject: aussie-weather: sunset mammatus
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 18:20:43 +1000
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Check out the sunset mammatus in Brisbane right now - awesome!!
A beautiful glow over the area :)

http://public.rome.net.au/PossumCam/


------------------------------------------------------
James Chambers
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Qld Storms
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 19:36:25 -0800
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The storms in Qld today at one stage were in excess of 400 km long ... with
reports of up to 70mm in the brisbane valley, although i think there could
have been heavier falls in less populated ares on the Wide Bay and Burnett
(NW of brisbane) going from the echo's on the Radar shot Laurier posted.
There is More cloud building to the west in the same fashion thisafternoons
storms did on the latest sat pics, but it is too early too call ... would i
be greedy if i asked for more storms tonight?? hehe

l8tr

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storm Damage
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 20:36:06 -0800
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I just saw on TV that the line of storms caused some quite servere damage to
houses and trees on the sunshine coast , North of brisbane.  Not much
information at the moment, but i believe some area's are still without
power.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storm Damage
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 20:47:08 -0800
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>I just saw on TV that the line of storms caused some quite servere damage
to
>houses and trees on the sunshine coast , North of brisbane.  Not much
>information at the moment, but i believe some area's are still without
>power.
>

Ok - 107 000 people withouth power in brisbane's western and northern
suburbs at the moment.  I just talked to a person 45km WNW of Gympie (a
farmer) and he says he has servere crop damage, and local flooding, but no
totals at the moment as his rain guage was blown over during the storm.  And
there is a 4 foot fresh in the wide bay creek, wich is not too common.  I
also saw footage of a house serverely damaged on the sunshine coast. The
forecast for brisbane has been updated a second time to overnight and
morning storms/showers

sorry about all the Messages but i thrive on this stuff :) (the damage is
not too good though)

l8tr

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

X-Originating-Ip: [203.25.186.106]
From: "Kevin Phyland" 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Charleville Sounding Data...
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 02:56:19 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Paul,
Hey, where do you get this sounding data??
Is it available through the BOM or elsewhere?
It looks REALLY interesting!
Yours,
Kevin.



>
>Hi everyone,
>	I thought these statistics for the morning Charleville sounding
>looked interesting and worth posting:
>Lifted Index:             -6.59 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
>Lifted Index  at 300 mb:     -5.03 C
>Lifted Index  at 700 mb:      0.93 C
>Showalter Index:          -4.51 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
>Total Totals Index:       57.80 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
>  Vertical Totals Index:  35.90 C
>  Cross Totals Index:     21.90 C
>K Index:                  34.70   Risk: 60-80 % chance of thunderstorms
>Sweat Index:             402.81   Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible
>Energy Index:             -2.33   Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
>
>Parcel Indices
>Parcel: using 100 mb layer
>CAPE (B+):              1286.57 J/kg
>Max Up Vert Vel:          50.73 m/s
>Conv Inhibition (B-):    177.20 J/kg
>Cap Strength:              3.63 C
>Lift Cond Lev (LCL):     760.12 mb =  2393.21 m =  7851.64 ft
>Lev Free Conv (LFC):     675.12 mb =  3383.98 m = 11102.16 ft
>Equ Level (EL):          225.12 mb = 11401.20 m = 37405.06 ft
>B at Equ Level:         1279.61 J/kg
>Max Parcel Lev (MPL):    135.12 mb = 14645.15 m = 48047.80 ft
>
>Wind Parameters
>Mean winds (0-6000m):            290.3 at   34.0 knts
>Storm direction:                 320.3 at   25.5 knts
>Shear (0-3000m)              pos:    0.7 neg:    5.5 tot:    6.2 10-3/s
>Storm rel Dir Shear (0-3000m):     135.6 deg
>Storm rel helicity (0-3000m) pos:    7.7 neg:  -84.6 tot:  -76.9 
m^2/s^2
>                             ave:  -25.6 10^-3 m/s^2 rel:  -0.49
>Storm rel vorticity (0-3000m) horiz:   10.0 stream:   -4.9 10^-3/s
>Energy-Hel index:          0.06
>Bulk Rich Number:         18.77
>Bulk Shear:               68.54 m/s

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Subject: aussie-weather: Severe storm prediction
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 98 22:00:52 +1000
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From: mildad 
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Hi all,

Hope some of the chasers up North got onto some good storms.
I found an interesting document (more for the references) on threshold 
values of parameters used to guide the prediction of thunderstorms/severe 
thunderstorm. Paul G has already explained most of this to me, as is 
available on atmospheric soundings, although I would like to get a hold 
of the threshold values used in the prediction of different storm types. 
I suspect that some of the storm chasers would have already seen it, if 
not you can read it at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/regn/expt/tornado/NSW/coldies_nsw.htm

I am going to get a hold of the first reference and I'll check if the 
second was published as it might be quite interesting.


REFERENCES 

1) Colquhoun,J.R., 1996: A decision tree method of forecasting 
thunderstorms,
severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes revisited. Proc. Fifth Australian 
Severe
Thunderstorm Conference, Avoca Beach NSW, 135-141. Australian Bureau of
Meteorology. 

2) Mills,G.A., and J.R.Colquhoun, 1998: Objective prediction of severe
thunderstorm environments: preliminary results linking a decision tree 
with an
operational regional NWP model. Submitted to Wea. and Forecasting. 


Cheers

David C

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From: "Ben Quinn" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Charleville Sounding Data...
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 1998 21:04:18 -0800
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>Hi Paul,
>Hey, where do you get this sounding data??
>Is it available through the BOM or elsewhere?
>It looks REALLY interesting!
>Yours,
>Kevin.
>
>
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/upperair/au.html

If you need any help working out what means what email me on
Bodie at corplink.com.au  i can give you a quick run-down on what means what

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Subject: aussie-weather: NT storm chase: Hector
Date: Tue, 24 Nov 98 22:24:32 +1000
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From: mildad 
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

While I'm going through the BoM page, Paul M and the other NT storm 
chasers may like to have a read of their (BoMs) analysis of Hector over 
the Tiwi and Melville islands - pretty impressive. 
In particular read the 28 Nov (1995) storm summary. Yoy may want to book 
a boat (or Cessna) ride as well as your NT plane ticket!.

Follow the 'experimental summary' link at

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/meso/Project/research/index.htm

David