From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]                Gympie Floods
002 Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]                Gympie Floods
003 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]            Orange weather
004 "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com]         An interesting trend?
005 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Re: aussie-weather: Snow (was: Suprise Adelaide Chase)
006 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Blackheath Weather
007 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   (no subject)
008 Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]                   Snow (was: Suprise Adelaide Chase)
009 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]     Tropical Lows in Coral
010 vortex at wwdg.com                                Accomidation
011 "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]          Accomodation discount
012 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Ira's site
013 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]           Melbourne 22/1/99
014 "bonzo" [bonzo at mpx.com.au]                     tropical lows
015 "Manda .  M" [manda at tpgi.com.au]               tropical lows
016 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]   Melbourne 22/1/99

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001

Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 08:52:14 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gympie Floods
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey Ben from Brisbane here ..

The Mary river at Gympie peaked at 21.59m early this morning, and was
steady at 5am thismorning, and expected to commence falling early this
morning .. although it should remain very high until at least tomorrow. 
This makes it the third highest flood ever recorded, falling short of
the second worst by only .06m (!!!).


> 
> Hey Ben from Brisbane here ..
> 
> Well it's been quite a wild day in parts of SE QLD today, with
> widespread moderate/major flooding in some streams, and minor flooding
> in most, if not all tributaries.  Gympie, Beenleigh, Brisbane and
> Toowoomba were declared Natural Disaster areas just under an hour ago,
> so it is quite serious. 75 Schools were closed throughout SE QLD today,
> and with many suburbs and communities isolated, allot of people would
> have had the day off work.
> 
> The Mary River at Gympie is expected to peak at 22m tomorrow morning at
> 6am, which exceeds the 1992 limit by .6 of a metre, causing widespread
> Major flooding. If it does peak at this level, it will be the 3rd
> highest this century, the other peaks being
> 
> 20.73m in 1974
> 21.4m in 1992
> 
> A local radio station just had an interview with the Mayor of Gympie,
> and he was saying he has never seen the water rise this fast, it's risen
> 3 times as fast as previous floods, at .5 of a metre per hour. I've seen
> the Mary in a Minor flood, and it an amazing sight then, i can only
> imagine what the countryside looks like up there at the moment. Major
> flooding is expected downstream to Mayborough, where it should peak at
> 9m.
> 
> Here in Brisbane the rain has backed right off, with only light
> rain/drizzle here at the moment, and doesn't really look like we'll get
> much more .. though i wouldn't rule it out for areas north of Brisbane
> overnight, which is all they need.
> 
> BTW a young boy drowned whilst playing in a storm water drain earlier
> this afternoon :( while 4 others had to be rescued on different
> occasions at different locations on the Sunshine coast throughout the
> day.
> 
> My current obs at 5:15pm are 26C 78% humidity, winds ESE at 10knots and
> overcast.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002

Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 09:16:55 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [Bodie19 at eisa.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Gympie Floods
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hmm .. too early for my fingers i think, that's meant to be 21.95m

> The Mary river at Gympie peaked at 21.59m early this morning, and was
>>SNIP<<

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003

From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Orange weather
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 10:23:17 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2212 (4.71.2419.0)
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Hi All,

Still nothing but scattered cu.

 At 10.20am ESDT 21C,1018, 43%, NE 10-20 Knots.


 Terry.

mailto:dymprog at mpx.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004

X-Originating-Ip: [146.118.64.153]
From: "Joanne Walker" [jmwalker at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: An interesting trend?
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 16:10:06 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

To be honest with you Keith I have not come across a 21 point binomial 
filter in my mathematical studies - maybe when I start my honours next 
year I will.  Maybe someone else on the list knows?....

But did you know you can test the fit of your curve to see how well it 
fits your graph (for example with insurance data you can test with a 
certain level of confidence that the distribution fits - but of course 
this hads to be very high in this situation)  For the statisticians out 
there, we could compare the p values generated and choose the smallest 
one to be the best fit.

Hope this makes sense!  Maybe there are computer programs out there that 
can do it for you (I had to do mine on paper with a calculator - not fun 
at all!!!



>
>Assuming you saw my rainfall graph, the polynomial curve appeared to be 
the
>best fit
>but what, for example, is a 21 point binomial filter ( I assume it's 
similar
>to a 21 year moving average?)
>Is it easy (or are any of these easy) to calculate?
>Please excuse my mathematical ignorance, but trends in data are one of 
my
>main weather interests...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005

Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 09:15:02 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather: Snow (was: Suprise Adelaide Chase)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Michael Scollay wrote:
> 
G'day Michael,

I forgot to answer your question re Hartley valley being accessible via
Shipley Plataeu. Yes, it would be via a walking track. Car Track, I'm
not sure.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006

Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 09:11:25 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Blackheath Weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Blackheath had around 35mm over Monday night (8/2/99) and a blackout
for around one hour at 7pm that evening.

Lindsay

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007

Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 12:23:57 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Keith Barnett wrote:
> 
> That's a pretty radical drop in the temp! How much rain have you had in the last 2
> days?
> (Here there were 44 millimetres in the 36 hours to 6pm)
> 
WE've had around 60 odd mills and about ten in the gauge (approx)
just now. Lots of mist just now and around 15 degrees.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008

Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 09:08:41 -0800
From: Lindsay [writer at lisp.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather: Snow (was: Suprise Adelaide Chase)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

G'day Michael,

Interesting info, thanks. Yes, i am aware that the snow (on ground) is
not the same as the measured amount of precipitation but didn't have
your  precise details of that. Thanks, I'll file your email away in my
snow folder. :-) Do you have a date for the snowfall that your spoke of
in Blackheath. The one I mentioned is pretty well known I think, it is
also mentioned in The Australian Weather Book. Even Forbes had snow
during this time! WE had a good fall in August 1996 of quite a few
inches (on ground) the trees were totally covered in wet snow. I've seen
flakes up here two or more centimetres in diameter, courtesy of melting
then re-freezing snow I'm sure.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009

Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 12:17:09 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at stealth.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tropical Lows in Coral
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

The sat pics are showing 2 interesting lows, in the past 16hrs the
increase in convection + rotation (especially in the one off the coast
of Cape York) has increased dramatically!

The other low is well off the coast (over 1000km) ENE of the one close
to the coast.  The models push the TL (Tropical Low) well off the coast
SE, but keep the TL close to the coast hugging the coast.  All the
models (except GASP, it shows nothing and currently the ECWMF site is
down, so I don't know what it's showing) forecast these TL's to become
TC's.

It will certainly be another interesting week or two...especially if one
of those TC's were to wander down here and dump yet more rain over us...

Brisbane's waters are ~ 26C, but what is concerning is the 29-30C+
waters that are about level with the Tropic of Capricorn.

For anyone who is curious on SST's, see:
http://www.fnoc.navy.mil/otis/otis_glbl_sst.gif
or
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst/latest_sst.gif
The latter is in F, but is easier to read temps off.

I don't use the CSIRO site for SST's (despite it's excellent interactive
format) because I've often found the SST's to be too high (IE sometimes
Brisbane is 30+, and I've seen SA towns at 32C for SST) does anyone know
why this is so?

Anthony from Brisbane

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010

From: vortex at wwdg.com
Date: Tue, 9 Feb 1999 21:26:31 -0700
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Accomidation
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hey all.

I just noticed about the Sydney meeting of ASWA and noticed a package
for out of townies for accomidation. Maybe someone could find out about
packages in other states?

Paul.
Paul Yole
2 McDonald Street
Murtoa.  Vic. 3390
Australia
Phone: (035) 385 2699
Mobile: 0419 367 920
Email: vortex at wwdg.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011

X-Originating-Ip: [203.37.41.20]
From: "Patrick Tobin" [pdtobin at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Accomodation discount
Date: Tue, 09 Feb 1999 21:05:33 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,

I have just spoken to the Paramatta Park Royal
to make a booking for accomodation for this 
Saturday's ASWA meeting in Sydney.

The 2KY staff rate I was quoted was $130 per night 
(and not $41).

I asked if they could check this and the $130 rate was
confirmed. 

As Grant and Mike Nui aren't contactable today. I was
wondering if anyone else was having a similar 
experience?

Patrick
from
Canberra 

(lots of cloud since Monday but only 1-2mm received
in this area. Some great strato-cumulus chasing to be had
though!!)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ira's site
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 17:23:05 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

The fact that Michael could not access your site proves that the problem is
not at their end.

How are things over your way ?  We are in a wet mode at present, high
humidity, lots of nightime rain, etc. No storms either.

Michael

-----Original Message-----
>yeah i know, i went to update it with a new picture of the month and for
>some reason my ftp isnt working, its a problem with my server, they are
>giving me the shits ill tell ya they reckon the problem is at my end but
>i can upload to my other xoom site okay, so who knows, will fix it
>asap
> Ira

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013

From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne 22/1/99
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 20:13:38 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
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Well, Andrew McDonald & I have finally got our act sort of together and put
up a report about this absolutely fantastic night in Melbourne.

You can find it at

http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/

(if it's still there and everything still works )

Andrew wrote the article, Michael Bath supplied the images and I wrote the
html & lost my FTP virginity tonight.

Please feel free to comment & criticise - preferably to me privately at
cadence at rubix.net.au

Jane
Bayswater

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014

To: "weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
From: "bonzo" [bonzo at mpx.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: tropical lows
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 99 07:24:09 PST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id UAA07382

g,day anthony it,s rob from cairns, those two lows could be very interesting indeed.
a lot of cloud around, and the wind has just started to pick up a bit, we expect gale force winds tomorrow, although well off shore.
the bureau expects to name the cyclone tomorrow, i think the name will be roda
finally some action.
all the best from rob.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015

From: "Manda .  M" [manda at tpgi.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: tropical lows
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 20:04:02 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.71.1712.3
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Rob ,
             Manda here from Bowen .Great to see another Northerner on the
list!!!...
            We havn't had much rain or anything much at all down this way
now for a few weeks.....Getting some nice showers now.
            It's going to be interesting to see what this system out in the
Coral sea decides to do tommorrow and the next few days ahead of us..Been
nice also to cool down a bit .Especially at night there is a lovely breeze
...(hopeing the breeze don't get to cat 4 or 5 though,haha)
     Well all we can do for now is ......watch and wait!

                                           Manda       (TropiXX)

-----Original Message-----
>g,day anthony it,s rob from cairns, those two lows could be very
interesting indeed.
>a lot of cloud around, and the wind has just started to pick up a bit, we
expect gale force winds tomorrow, although well off shore.
>the bureau expects to name the cyclone tomorrow, i think the name will be
roda
>finally some action.
>all the best from rob.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016

From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne 22/1/99
Date: Wed, 10 Feb 1999 22:23:45 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Great report Andrew and Jane, things have certainly being good in Melbourne
this summer, and the models say Melbourne is looking better than Sydney this
weekend too.

Here in the Illawarra it has been showery and humid for the past 2 weeks,
nothing to get excited about.

Michael



-----Original Message-----
>Well, Andrew McDonald & I have finally got our act sort of together and put
>up a report about this absolutely fantastic night in Melbourne.
>
>You can find it at
>
>http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
>
>(if it's still there and everything still works )
>
>Andrew wrote the article, Michael Bath supplied the images and I wrote the
>html & lost my FTP virginity tonight.
>
>Please feel free to comment & criticise - preferably to me privately at
>cadence at rubix.net.au
>
>Jane
>Bayswater